dspp wrote:Do you have any recent hard data ?
regards, dspp
I will have to have a dig around. It will be there somewhere.
TJH
Thanks to Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77, for Donating to support the site
dspp wrote:Do you have any recent hard data ?
regards, dspp
dspp wrote:tjh290633 wrote:@dspp
I understand that very few, if any, of the Battery electric buses currently operating in the UK are able to complete a full day's work on a single charge. I've been on a London single deck electric which had a planned change onto another vehicle, in order that the original bus could go back to base for recharging.
Back in the 1950s the Dennis Lancet III buses on which I worked could be refuelled every other day, having a 40 gallon tank (I think). They would do at the most 8 round trips from Rye to Hastings, approximately 30 miles each time, or 240 miles in a day. I think that they did between 12 to 15 mpg.
London's daily mileage figures look low to me, bearing in mind that many routes are now 24 hour operation. I would be very surprised if Guildford's P&R buses can do a full day without being recharged. I suspect that the requirement is for a number of buses in service while some are being recharged, Allowance has to be made for maintenance time as well, although this would usually be done overnight or at weekends.
TJH
Do you have any recent hard data ?
regards, dspp
dspp wrote:
I've done some sums to understand generic bus fleets. I won't bore you with all the URL references. Your Guildford video https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business- ... o-electric .
I've used a typical Volvo B7 such as the Volvo B7RLE and the 7 is because these use 7-litre diesel engines. These are very typical of the single decker city buses you see around the world.
41 litre per 100 km is the average fuel consumption in city traffic (33% idle and average speed of 19 km/h) of all Volvo B7R and Volvo B7RLE chassis delivered since the introduction of Euro IV in 2006.
Using TfL data a typical bus does 97 miles per day, or 156 km/d. That fits well with the ranges stated in the video.
So a typical bus uses 64 litres of diesel per day.
If this was being burnt in a diesel engine that would mean that you have to insert 10kWh of chemical energy in, to get 3.3kWh of kinetic energy out, with the rest being wasted as exhaust heat & acoustics.
For approximating purposes lets use 90% conversion efficiency for a BEV. For the time being I will ignore charging efficiency as I think there is another factor that is more important.
That means that a typical bus will consume (i.e. discharge from its battery) 234kWh of electrical energy each day in doing 97 miles of work. That energy needs recharging overnight.
There were 9 buses in the Guildford fleet per your post.
So 9 x 234 = 2106 kWh to be recharged overnight. Let's assume 10pm until 6am for recharging, so an 8hr recharge period. The 10pm start is usefully well into the low load period, and the 6am is before it starts rising, so this is the lowest point in the typical UK load cycle.
2106/8 = 263 kWh/h will be the AVERAGE recharge rate, and I'll return to the average bit in a moment.
Recall that a typical house single phase 100A supply of 240V can supply 100 x 240 / 1000 = 24 kW maximum continuous
So a 415V three phase supply of 400A will give a max of 415 x 400 x rt3 (1.732) / 1000 = 287 kW maximum continuous (this is about the equivalent of 10 house supplies, but no diversity factor)
So if the bus depot had a dedicated 400A three phase supply of 415V then it could deliver 287 kW continuous, i.e. 287 kWh every hour, or 287 kWh/h. Compare that with the 263 kWh/h required on AVERAGE and you would think that would be OK. In fact there is probably just about enough spare capacity to cope for 10% of charging efficiency losses, but probably not for other losses in the system, but I don't think losses are the real issue here.
But that ignores the tapered charging issues. If you look at a battery charge curve the starting charge rate is typically twice the average, so one would really need an 800A supply if one were to plug in all the buses simultaneously at 10pm. It is a fairly typical 'stupid' use case to assume a small fleet would start charging essentially simultaneously. Even a little bit of staggering would help greatly.
Frankly providing a 800-1000 A additional supply to a local bus depot is doable, but a little forethought would suggest putting in a new 11kV supply to this area, as the depot will not be the only bit of this area of Guildford that is running hot. You need to recall that most of these areas of England had their electrical system origins back in the days of DC cabling, and are horrendous antiques that are well overdue replacement - just like most of the UK's electrical infrastructure. My guess is that this set of buses would have pushed them over the edge and precipitated a need to reinforce the local area. By way of comparison my little factory has about 600A of 415V 3ph as its supply, and we don't have an 11kV dedicated feed.
That is why in this instance there is a Tesla storage solution going in to avoid the local upgrade - one sees the same thing going on in inner city USA where they are putting in storage rather than building/renewing their inner city power stations. [edit:] As a fagpacket approximation the Tesla storage will reduce the approx 800A peak additional 10pm load to a 131A average additional daytime load. Add in a bit of dual-supply into the overnight charge (i.e. from both the storage battery and the regular supply) and that could easily bring the avge daytime increase below 100A. Start to do these numbers and you can see how a little bit of localised storage can avoid the need for expensive grid cabling upgrades etc.
Of course the fact that the UK's electrical infrastructure is 50-years old on average and so needs replacement in any case (in fact it is long overdue) will not be a reason for the anti-BEV luddites to desist. Instead they will wail & moan & gnash their teeth and (probably) insist that it is all the nasty EU's fault.
Meanwhile my customers around the world are getting on with it at a goodly pace.
By the way the more global data that I am playing with suggests that on average about a 1.5x increase in the electrical network is required. In some hotspots (such as this Guildford bus depot) that will be more like 2x, but in very large sections it is 1x (i.e. no upgrade required). That 1x includes a lot of UK housing. Whether it is cheaper to put in localised storage in the 2x areas to avoid the need to do grid reinforcement is a localised cost-benefit-analysis. My guess is that this was as much a technology demonstrator project in this particular instance, though there may also be technical issues associated with the legacy cabling as in so much of the UK.
There is a lot of value in the Tesla storage play.
regards, dspp
tjh290633 wrote:@dspp
I understand that very few, if any, of the Battery electric buses currently operating in the UK are able to complete a full day's work on a single charge. I've been on a London single deck electric which had a planned change onto another vehicle, in order that the original bus could go back to base for recharging.
Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.
Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.
BobbyD wrote:Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.
Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.
- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/
dspp wrote:BobbyD wrote:Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.
Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.
- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/
Nothing to do with the fact that MobilEye which is essentially a Tesla competitor has been one of the Israeli tech success stories ?
dspp
BobbyD wrote:dspp wrote:BobbyD wrote:
- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/
Nothing to do with the fact that MobilEye which is essentially a Tesla competitor has been one of the Israeli tech success stories ?
dspp
Well MobilEye is currently one of Intel's great success stories...
odysseus2000 wrote:For anyone interested, I have reversed my wrong move in selling Tesla late last year and I now have the biggest Tesla position I have ever had.
I might change my Tesla holding at any moment.
Regards,
redsturgeon wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:For anyone interested, I have reversed my wrong move in selling Tesla late last year and I now have the biggest Tesla position I have ever had.
I might change my Tesla holding at any moment.
Regards,
So I assume you bought higher than you sold.
John
Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’
I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high )
At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.
https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/
regards
Howard
Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’
I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high )
At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.
https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/
regards
Howard
Froehlich argues that BMW’s vehicle architectures need to be as flexible as possible because the rate of EV adoption will be primarily based on the emissions rules for each market. Here’s how he breaks down those markets:
China – Big east coast cities will go EV “pretty soon,” while western China will rely on gas engines for “the next 15 to 20 years.”
Europe – Froehlich favors plug-in hybrids over EVs. He said PHEVS, which will replace V8 vehicles, will account for about 25% of European sales. Another 25% will go to BEVs, and a half or more to be shared by gas and diesel.
United States – Froehlich says, “Most of the US does not need BEVs.” He sees adoption mostly on the west coast and parts of the east coast. And the rest of the US? Status quo.
...
VW says it will build the electric cars in 16 “e-locations” around the world by late 2022, including some in Europe and one plant in the U.S. VW isn’t sure exactly where, but calls Chattanooga a “natural fit.” Most of the plants, though, will be in China, where about 50 percent of 2025's 1 million annual EVs will be sold, with Europe representing about 30 to 40 percent, and the U.S. representing around 10 to 20 percent.
odysseus2000 wrote:Does anyone care about BMW anymore?
odysseus2000 wrote:Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’
I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high )
At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.
https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/
regards
Howard
.
Does anyone care about BMW anymore?
They are doomed and the BMW R&D chief is just trying to justify the decision they took not to get in battery making etc that would be needed for BEV. Arguing that batteries are wiped out in 2 years also adds to his salvo towards keeping things the same and not spending on battery making which is anyhow an impossibility for them given their weak balance sheet.
He might as well have been a brick and mortar book seller telling anyone who would listen that Amazon are not a threat.
Regards,
Ody
You throw out statements about Tesla’s competitors without any factual basis. How can we take you seriously?
I don’t claim to understand the complexities of large company balance sheets, but a little research suggests you may not understand the strength of the BMW balance sheet.
BMW has been building large reserves off the balance sheet. Their accounting seems to be very conservative. The company is one of the largest landowners around Munich, one of the most expensive areas in Germany. Real estate owned by BMW is valued at costs which are years old . BMW owns production and assembly plants in more than 10 countries. Their book value does not represent current land values.
If you look carefully I think you may find that their assets are much larger than at first appear and thus their balance sheet strength may be more than many of their rivals - including Tesla! So unless you can prove otherwise, this is just a baseless allegation.
Maybe you should analyse the reasons for their success in selling half a million electric cars a little more carefully too . Maybe they are exploiting large market niches that other BEV manufacturers aren't reaching?
regards
Howard
Return to “Macro and Global Topics”
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests