odysseus2000 wrote:dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:If you think I am talking nuts, please specify what I am getting wrong.
Given previous such posts I doubt you will listen!
I will listen to any well reasoned and articulate post that gives quantitative reasons.
Whether I will agree with it is a different matter.
In general I like to know both sides of any issue at a level that would allow me to argue either case and for this reason I seek out alternative views in case they have some weight that I have otherwise not properly considered.
I've now seen your video. It is a little bit too much "fan club" for my liking, as opposed to investigative documentary, but that is fine I can live with that.
My concerns would be that looking at the present there is a big disconnect between times when energy demand is high, or low, and similarly times when energy supply is high, or low. This creates times when prices are high, and others when they are low. Furthermore as various new forms of energy have come on stream this price volatility has increased. In the video this is expressed by graphs such as the one at about 17:00 with lines for different years.
None of this sounds particularly controversial. The business opportunity is there for those that can capture it, and this requires an ability to "harvest" energy when cheap, store it, and release when expensive.
My concern is that as that "gap" is exploited as more and more batteries with the capability to buy/sell this arbitrage come along, that price gap will narrow. More "batteries" will be buying when energy is cheap, and similarly those same more "batteries" will be selling when energy is expensive.
So my question is what is your valuation model of Tesla using as this "gap" and does it account for that "gap" narrowing, or becoming smoother, and over what time frame. With TSLA valued at $180bn or so, I would need to be robustly confident on issues such as that before I would be long. Similarly were it valued at say $10bn I would want to a lot of confidence in going short (and I certainly wouldn't be ignoring the non-auto parts of the company even if I had little faith in their auto products).
I hear a lot about "secular growth", and also so much about how wonderful their products are, but not a lot of that matters without the context of valuation. Buying or selling shares in a company based on how good (or not) their products are isn't enough, price matters enormously too.