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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
ElectronicFur
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322747

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 11:57 am

scotia wrote:Why not adopt the Scottish school system - Summer holidays have commenced, and its back-to-school in Mid August. By that time, if we have been sensible, the infection rate will have dropped further, and we may be able to return to more normal teaching practices.


Current guidance from Welsh government states schools are to continue 1-day-a-week school with "blended" learning in September.

Scottish government's intention was the same until parents pressured them to u-turn.

ursaminortaur
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322749

Postby ursaminortaur » June 30th, 2020, 12:07 pm

Local lockdown imposed in Leicester.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-update-live-tips-symptoms-news-deaths-cases-latest-a9592596.html

Non-essential shops have shut again in Leicester and schools will close to most pupils from Thursday after the government ordered the first local lockdown amid a rise in coronavirus cases.

The city will now not see the further easing of lockdown planned for the rest of England from Saturday, health secretary Matt Hancock said. Labour has demanded a No 10 press conference to explain the lockdown, following claims of delays in reacting to the emergence of new cases and a failure to communicate with local civic leaders.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322752

Postby swill453 » June 30th, 2020, 12:16 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:Local lockdown imposed in Leicester.

Pubs in the surrounding villages should prepare themselves to be a bit busy on Saturday then. Or are there going to be roadblocks and barricades?

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322753

Postby jfgw » June 30th, 2020, 12:24 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:Here in Wales on the 13th of June, the number of deaths was already below the 5 year average for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, as taken from their confidential briefing paper.

The latest ONS data, released today, shows this is now true for England & Wales. The mortality rate in England & Wales is now less than 5-year average.

Yet our children are denied education.


Cholera has been eradicated in the UK (except for people who have been abroad and caught it there) so let's start pooing in our drinking water again.

I accept that evidence is fuzzy as to what effect the lockdown has had. I would expect a reduced (or delayed) death rate to show up as differences between people with different occupations with different levels of interpersonal interraction. However, while there is some positive correlation,
This analysis does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving COVID-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure; we adjusted for age, but not for other factors such as ethnic group and place of residence.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d25may2020

One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


Julian F. G. W.

ElectronicFur
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322783

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 2:25 pm

jfgw wrote:One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


"Better safe than sorry" applies to children's education and mental health too...

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322807

Postby jfgw » June 30th, 2020, 4:22 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:
jfgw wrote:One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


"Better safe than sorry" applies to children's education and mental health too...


The problem is getting the balance right when you don't know the sizes of the weights. Missing education can have long-term effects, but so can dying or some of the other outcomes of covid-19. The risk of turning schools into virus distribution hubs might seem much lower than that of meat processing plants but that risk needs to be considered. (Children would probably understand a "no shouting" rule better than some factory workers.)


Julian F. G. W.

scotia
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322816

Postby scotia » June 30th, 2020, 5:11 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:
scotia wrote:Why not adopt the Scottish school system - Summer holidays have commenced, and its back-to-school in Mid August. By that time, if we have been sensible, the infection rate will have dropped further, and we may be able to return to more normal teaching practices.


Current guidance from Welsh government states schools are to continue 1-day-a-week school with "blended" learning in September.

Scottish government's intention was the same until parents pressured them to u-turn.

No need to pressure the Scottish Government. In Scottish state schools, holidays traditionally start now!
And we now have breathing space to work out what is sensible, come Mid-August.

Mike4
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322850

Postby Mike4 » June 30th, 2020, 10:19 pm

Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322876

Postby servodude » July 1st, 2020, 1:30 am

Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322914

Postby Howard » July 1st, 2020, 10:03 am

servodude wrote:
Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


La Macarona? ;)

ursaminortaur
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322917

Postby ursaminortaur » July 1st, 2020, 10:11 am

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


It would just even things up a bit - after all the one place we are pretty sure the 1918 Spanish Flu didn't start is Spain.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322930

Postby oldapple » July 1st, 2020, 11:11 am

Love the humour in some of the posts. I thought I'd highlight this report from BBC's Fergus Walsh. It shows how much the corona virus affects the brain as well as the respiratory system, and how much the specialists have and are still learning about it. One very seriously ill (highly educated) patient makes a remarkable and unexpected recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53081022

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322932

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 1st, 2020, 11:22 am

oldapple wrote:Love the humour in some of the posts. I thought I'd highlight this report from BBC's Fergus Walsh. It shows how much the corona virus affects the brain as well as the respiratory system, and how much the specialists have and are still learning about it. One very seriously ill (highly educated) patient makes a remarkable and unexpected recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53081022


That's genuinely interesting - thanks. And (insofar as a single case can) seems to hint at why heart conditions showed up ahead of respiratory conditions as a risk factor in the early reporting.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322933

Postby Mike4 » July 1st, 2020, 11:24 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


It would just even things up a bit - after all the one place we are pretty sure the 1918 Spanish Flu didn't start is Spain.

Yes carry on the trend, kung 'flu perhaps didn't originate in China! The thing I find most curious about all this is how uninterested the authorities and researchers seem to be in identifying the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Other than these researchers in Spain, that is.

It's almost as though they already know the answer but it needs keeping under wraps - for political reasons perhaps - hence the way we are all encouraged to believe vague assertions it started in a live meat market in China. Assertions which don't really stand up to close examination, according to some.

One thing supporting the idea that it originated in a China meat market is the way China itself is not loudly and aggressively denying it. So either China agrees it is true, or it suits them too for everyone to believe it.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322946

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 1st, 2020, 12:09 pm

Mike4 wrote:One thing supporting the idea that it originated in a China meat market is the way China itself is not loudly and aggressively denying it. So either China agrees it is true, or it suits them too for everyone to believe it.


Perhaps. But maybe another explanation is, pick your battles. TPTB in China know very well that "loudly and aggressively denying it" would be counterproductive. If there is evidence to the contrary, let it be unearthed by scientists with more credibility than governments (of any country).

Perhaps the eventual evidence will point to a long-term steady state rather than a big-bang origin? Perhaps it's been around harmlessly for years? Perhaps the Spanish traces are from some non-human animal whose waste is blended with ours in the sewers - rats are always a good scapegoat?

Perhaps the whole story tells us more about psychology - the human need for an origin story - than anything else?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#322997

Postby servodude » July 1st, 2020, 2:43 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
oldapple wrote:Love the humour in some of the posts. I thought I'd highlight this report from BBC's Fergus Walsh. It shows how much the corona virus affects the brain as well as the respiratory system, and how much the specialists have and are still learning about it. One very seriously ill (highly educated) patient makes a remarkable and unexpected recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53081022


That's genuinely interesting - thanks. And (insofar as a single case can) seems to hint at why heart conditions showed up ahead of respiratory conditions as a risk factor in the early reporting.


It's not just a single case
- for a while now this has looked like a blood disorder delivered through the respiratory system

The bells started ringing when the recovery rate on ventilation was so low; or more correctly that the SPO2 of patients on serious ventilation was still dropping despite the efforts of the medics (air and oxygen going in but the haemoglobin isn't taking up O2)

This isn't a flu where you succumb through bronchitis becoming pneumonia and your lungs filling; this scars your lungs through clotting, gives you a very good risk of a stroke or cutting out the flow to organs other than the brain.

It's really quite novel and the residual effects have only been quantified on patients sufficiently impacted to warrant investigation
- we don't know what impact a "light dose" causes; would you notice 5, 10, 20% of your lungs being gone? (I got down to 65% capacity last year through a bacterial infection before I got myself checked out - wheezing on my cycling commute)

Frankly I'm pissed off with the whole thing
- my employer think's it's great because my current servo project inflates peoples lungs and hey! loads more COPD means more sales!

I might go and find a pub to have a rant in
-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#323197

Postby Mike4 » July 2nd, 2020, 9:47 am

The Leicester lock-down is not working, apparently.

I've just been texted by a friend in Rugby saying half of Leicester is now shopping in Rugby as Leicester shops are closed, thereby spreading the virus more than if there had been no Leicester lockdown. Looks like Boris's whack-a-mole strategy is non-starter.

Give it three months of the public and the scientists screaming "it isn't working" at the government, that nice Mr Hancock will probably gravely announce 'it isn't working', as though no-one else had noticed and start waffling about right decisions, right time, guided by the... oh forget it!

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#323198

Postby PinkDalek » July 2nd, 2020, 9:51 am


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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#323206

Postby Mike4 » July 2nd, 2020, 10:13 am


Nope. I heard Boris use the term in his long and waffly speech to The House on Monday. Or was it Tuesday?!

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#323214

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 2nd, 2020, 10:40 am

Mike4 wrote:The Leicester lock-down is not working, apparently.

I've just been texted by a friend in Rugby saying half of Leicester is now shopping in Rugby as Leicester shops are closed, thereby spreading the virus more than if there had been no Leicester lockdown. Looks like Boris's whack-a-mole strategy is non-starter.

Give it three months of the public and the scientists screaming "it isn't working" at the government, that nice Mr Hancock will probably gravely announce 'it isn't working', as though no-one else had noticed and start waffling about right decisions, right time, guided by the... oh forget it!


Ah, yes. No doubt a metaphorical half shared by Rugby and other places, but the principle is there. As with killing badgers, so the survivors - including any that carry disease - move around more.

We mustn't disadvantage the .. um .. disadvantaged over matters that ... um ... don't matter in the least. But it's fine if only those rich and able-bodied enough to run a car get the privilege of escaping Leicester.

As for Hancock, he'll have his success as soon as he can point to reversion to the mean[1] in Leicester.

[1] Reversion to the mean is a technical concept in statistics. Worth understanding - if you didn't already.


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