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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324574

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 12:30 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote: As far as I know Tesla don't have much (any?) solar presence in the UK, but their solar tiles, if they do indeed work or are hyped enough, would likely be attractive to many with period properties.



Why would solar panels be attractive to period property owners?


I was referring to solar tiles which, at least to me, are more aesthetically pleasing than solar panels:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/solarroof

However, there are some questions as to whether they are as efficient as solar panels, with concerns over the tiles getting warmer and less efficient than panels. Tesla say they have solved these issues, but there are still folk who argue that panels are much better. I do not have first hand knowledge, but maybe another poster has information on the efficiency, cost of installation compared to panels etc.

If I was going to put solar on a roof, I would prefer from aesthetic considerations the tiles unless they are prohibitive for some reason.

Regards,

dealtn
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324578

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 1:17 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote: As far as I know Tesla don't have much (any?) solar presence in the UK, but their solar tiles, if they do indeed work or are hyped enough, would likely be attractive to many with period properties.



Why would solar panels be attractive to period property owners?


I was referring to solar tiles which, at least to me, are more aesthetically pleasing than solar panels:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/solarroof

However, there are some questions as to whether they are as efficient as solar panels, with concerns over the tiles getting warmer and less efficient than panels. Tesla say they have solved these issues, but there are still folk who argue that panels are much better. I do not have first hand knowledge, but maybe another poster has information on the efficiency, cost of installation compared to panels etc.

If I was going to put solar on a roof, I would prefer from aesthetic considerations the tiles unless they are prohibitive for some reason.

Regards,


Well I guess they would need to be invisible to be attractive, and also detachable at end of life/sale of property, but can't be worse than traditional solar panels.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324596

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 3:02 pm

dealtn
Well I guess they would need to be invisible to be attractive, and also detachable at end of life/sale of property, but can't be worse than traditional solar panels.


Panels/tiles are designed for a life time in excess of 20 years. As far as I understand it the tiles will still function as tiles for a lot longer and they are stronger than traditional roof tiles.

As things are now developing I expect most houses will either have solar panels/tiles or sell for market less the cost of solar installation.

As with Tesla cars I have not yet met someone who is disappointed with their solar roofs, other than a few who now feel they should have put more up when they did the installation.

For those with solar and a BEV it is like they have gone to energy heaven and can not comprehend how small their fuel costs are. Several of these folk are now eyeing power walls as well.

Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs. These gains should rise if the legacy utilities move to charge for apparent power via smart meters rather than the traditional real power, becomes a universal overhead when opting for a smart meter.

Regards,

PS For anyone unfamiliar: Real power is the joule energy delivered to a load in the house which given the alternating nature of electrical powerwiht reactive loads is less than the apparent power which effectively measures the incoming current. It is true that all installations have to be able to handle the apparent power, but traditionally it has been only the real power that has been measured and billed. Wiki et al has more details on the differences.

dealtn
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324624

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 4:52 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?

scrumpyjack
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324632

Postby scrumpyjack » July 8th, 2020, 5:20 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I put in solar panels 9 years ago, cost £10,500. The payments covered the costs in 6 years, leaving 19 years of over £2,000 pa cash coming in RPI indexed and tax free.

They cut the returns shortly after I put them in, but the panels are a lot cheaper now.

It was a brilliant scheme for helping Chinese companies build up their solar panel manufacturing industry whilst lumbering UK consumers with higher electricity bills to pay for it.

dealtn
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324635

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 5:27 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I put in solar panels 9 years ago, cost £10,500. The payments covered the costs in 6 years, leaving 19 years of over £2,000 pa cash coming in RPI indexed and tax free.

They cut the returns shortly after I put them in, but the panels are a lot cheaper now.

It was a brilliant scheme for helping Chinese companies build up their solar panel manufacturing industry whilst lumbering UK consumers with higher electricity bills to pay for it.


Fair enough but what is the current situation, does anyone know, as the post I replied to said "...but for now..."?

Savings rates available at banks are obviously lower, but so is the "tariff" on these schemes too (as far as I am aware).

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324641

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 5:46 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I did say returns, meaning income on the capital, but lets look at some numbers which necessarily involves all manner of approximations and long time scales which I discuss later and I may have got some of the sums wrong so please correct if so.

A 2019 4kW system costs, according to the article below, around £6800 and with Feed in Tariffs (FIT) returns about 6.5% per year, giving a break even in about 13 years, but as FIT has been replaced with the Smart Export Guarantee with lower payments this given a break even of 17 years and a return of 4.58%

https://greenbusinesswatch.co.uk/uk-dom ... turns-2019

So for 4 kW systems at £6800 with a life of 30 years, beyond year 17 the system is paid for so that the buyer has their £6800 back, and then the income comes to the owner of the system. If this is compounded over the remaining life of the system of 13 years, then the final amount after 30 years is 6800x(1.0485)**13 = £12,171, or a gain of £5371.

iF however, the money was invested at 0.5% over 30 years, then the return would be 6800x(1.005)**30 = £7898, or a gain of £1097.0

Clearly there are huge assumptions here over interest rates, Export Guarantees, electric bills etc etc ...

Folk have suggested that installers are desperate and are offering incentives which could reduce the initial costs or spread it interest free over a few years etc.

Still unless my sums are wrong the returns are better than what one can typically get on deposit and in some cases returns are negative, in other accounts larger. One can chase ones tail trying to think through all options, but as it is, roof top solar looks attractive compared to bank interest for someone intending to live in the same house for 30 years, or as an additional value added if it is proposed to sell the property.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324644

Postby scrumpyjack » July 8th, 2020, 6:06 pm

Those figures assume no maintenance costs and no performance degradation. My inverter failed after 3.5 years but was replaced under guarantee. I doubt their life expectancy is anything like 30 years, nor even half that.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324650

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 6:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:... or as an additional value added if it is proposed to sell the property.



I would seriously question that assumption too.

Some people are happy to buy a house with panels etc. in place, but many are put off by them.

My brother is an estate agent, and particularly in "difficult" times you really don't want to have things that put off potential buyers. In particular buyers are put off by sellers "insisting" that panels are an investment, and their value should be reflected in the asking price.

Anecdotally he would say identical houses one with, one without, are worth the same. The "extra premium" of having more interested buyers for a house without, offsetting the "extra premium" of the "panel investment". That would apply to the pre-Covid market, so may be even worse now, although (again anecdotally) he thinks the market is just as strong now than pre-Covid. Prices are about the same (and if anything in his area likely going higher as more than before are looking at "moving out" into the suburbs now the acceptance of home working to both employers and employees makes inner-city and shorter commutes less relevant - although that is worth a thread in its own right!).

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324651

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 6:24 pm

Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324660

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 6:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,


Some of which are as little as 1 year according to that link!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324707

Postby dspp » July 8th, 2020, 9:54 pm

Mercedes EQC showing Tesla how it is done .... not

"“Too late, too expensive, and too boring,” Speich said about the [Mercedes] EQC, which has had less-than-desirable sales figures," ........ "In 2019, only 397 units of the EQC were sold, and as of May 28, 2020, an additional 276 have been sold. The combination of these two figures is indicative of less than 700 units sold since the vehicle’s launch in late 2019."

https://www.teslarati.com/mercedes-benz ... -momentum/

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324761

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 8:50 am

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,


Some of which are as little as 1 year according to that link!


Solar panels have no moving parts and they and their fixings are remarkably resilient to the English weather. I have so far never seen one blown off a roof.

Inverters have to handle a lot of current and get hot and these seem to be the most unreliable part of current solar systems. However, as engineers see the failure modes they will adapt the design and it is likely that most of the issues will be solved. Some companies are now getting much better longevity from their inverters than early units.

Given the politicians concerns about greenhouse gases and that new houses are being built with no gas connection it seems likely that unless there is some new development in energy technology, that all houses will move towards 100% electrical utilities. This likely development has so far not got into the minds of the general public who see many things as new and unreliable generating some irrational fears and concerns. At some point things will change and the reduction in over heads, increase in reliability of energy supplies via solar and storage will become desirable features to any building. Most new houses already come with solar photo voltaic generation and it seems very likely that this trend will expand into the existing housing stock, although utilities are doing everything they can to protect their turf, they look to me like the advisors to King Canute who were sure he could command the tide to reverse, but he could not.

Meanwhile, new utilities such as Tesla, are slowly setting up shop in the UK, slowly putting their dagger at the throats of the incumbent legacy utilities. Politicians may protect legacy utilities, but the tide of wanting to reduce co2 looks very difficult to turn, no matter what the advisors to these King Canute like to say.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#324762

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 8:53 am

Musk still confident that Tesla are close to self driving:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324768

Postby dspp » July 9th, 2020, 9:14 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Inverters have to handle a lot of current and get hot and these seem to be the most unreliable part of current solar systems. However, as engineers see the failure modes they will adapt the design and it is likely that most of the issues will be solved. Some companies are now getting much better longevity from their inverters than early units.


The most common cause of failure in inverters used to be the capacitors. For all sorts of reasons this is much less so, and inverters are increasingly much more reliable.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#324772

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 9:22 am

Interesting 10 minute video on Tesla covering Chinese sales, Panasonic comments, Munroe analysis etc:

https://youtu.be/Y4QAATyWGuQ

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325037

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 8:29 am

Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325062

Postby dspp » July 10th, 2020, 9:31 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,


I'm not sure if what we have been observing recently is because of the S&P500 assumed-success, or because of intrinsic performance. I expect the next few months will make it clear. I read that TSLA would enter the S&P at about #25, quite a jolt if it were to take place.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325183

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 2:34 pm

dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,


I'm not sure if what we have been observing recently is because of the S&P500 assumed-success, or because of intrinsic performance. I expect the next few months will make it clear. I read that TSLA would enter the S&P at about #25, quite a jolt if it were to take place.

regards, dspp


Tesla blew past a lot of the analysts estimates for the last quarter, which the big fund managers likely take some note of, so I am slightly inclined to think that they did not pre-buy and that there could still be some kind of positive reaction if the S&P inclusion goes ahead, but this is pure speculation on my part.

There is also the coming news with battery day and Musk comments about the self driving capability being near. Shorts having been burned a time or two are likely wary of being burned again by either of these two potential positive news events or some other less expected positive announcement. The balance of forces now looks to have see-sawed from the bears who at one time got rewarded for misses etc, to the bulls who have been rewarded with beats on expectations and good news.

Meanwhile there is a ton of uncertainty over c19 and also election rhetoric beginning to build and I am seeing quite a bit of anti-china rhetoric coming from Farage and others that may influence some, but it is now hard imho to buy any manufactured product that does not have a lot of Chinese labour and/or product in it.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325277

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 7:50 pm

Wow!

Tesla equity is the strongest large cap equity I can ever remember.

Every time I think it has run its course and sell I have to buy it back again.

Now into animal spirits mode and there is a lot of reasons for me to feel this isn't overdone.

I told prudence to shut up and I am now back to having Tesla as my biggest position.

It could all go wrong, but to have liked the stock and then miss this rally was sitting bad with me.

I don't want to encourage anyone to do anything with regard to trading/investing. I am simple commenting on what I see as an amazing equity.

I can afford to lose all my money in Tesla, although I wouldn't like it, and my actions are based upon accepting that could happen and that I am prepared to live with the risk and also that I could also at any moment if something changes my mind.

Regards,


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