Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2092
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 1457 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325144

Postby simoan » July 10th, 2020, 12:21 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I've just seen a news flash saying that the head of WHO says the pandemic is accelerating, the no. of cases having doubled in the last 6 weeks. Perhaps too soon to celebrate.

Personally, I don't know anyone that's celebrating... Do you?

All the best, Si

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325146

Postby Bouleversee » July 10th, 2020, 12:25 pm

No, I don't, but it would seem that plenty of drunken idiots are.

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7086
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3794 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325153

Postby Mike4 » July 10th, 2020, 1:02 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I've just seen a news flash saying that the head of WHO says the pandemic is accelerating, the no. of cases having doubled in the last 6 weeks. Perhaps too soon to celebrate.


This is a vast improvement given back in March the cases were doubling every three days.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325171

Postby tjh290633 » July 10th, 2020, 2:04 pm

zico wrote:TJH

No, you had to put it in the box provided as you left. Name, contact number, time of arrival and departure and table number.

TJH


Was there somebody stopping people from leaving unless a completed form was put in the box? If not, the system doesn't work.

Yes, a person was monitoring both entrance and exit, to ensure compliance.

TJH

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325173

Postby Itsallaguess » July 10th, 2020, 2:08 pm

zico wrote:
I've now found out the cafe's email and sent in my details.


It was the right thing to do - well done..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325184

Postby dealtn » July 10th, 2020, 2:35 pm

Bouleversee wrote:No, I don't, but it would seem that plenty of drunken idiots are.


Celebrating what? I doubt many are celebrating the end of Covid. If anything they are celebrating being allowed to drink in public again, or see friends again, or just having a good time.

I very much doubt there are more "drunken idiots" out and about, celebrating or not, compared to pre-Covid, Unfortunately as we return to normal, some of the worst features of that normal will manifest themselves too, but personally I feel that's a price worth paying for that (gradual) return to normality.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18681
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6564 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325192

Postby Lootman » July 10th, 2020, 3:03 pm

sunnyjoe wrote:
Lootman wrote:There are extra steps if the deceased is to be cremated since that rules out a later post-mortem. Typically a second doctor has to sign the form.

A fee used to be charged (still is?). Doctors called this "ash cash"

That's right. The second doctor doesn't have to know the patient at all. They just review the documentation and sign the form.

And we did used to pay them in cash from a segregated pool of funds. It may not literally be cash any more but I feel sure it is still referred to as "ash cash". It was a nice little earner for some doctors who always made it known they were available for this duty.

genou
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1070
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 177 times
Been thanked: 370 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325408

Postby genou » July 11th, 2020, 3:40 pm

Lootman wrote:It was a nice little earner for some doctors who always made it known they were available for this duty.


Poor form. mumble years ago in the Glasgow hospitals the cremmy money was pooled and funded the New Year parties.

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 8912
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1309 times
Been thanked: 3667 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325560

Postby redsturgeon » July 12th, 2020, 10:04 am

https://medium.com/the-atlantic/covid-1 ... 801eb78871

An interesting article looking at why death rises might not be following rises in actual cases.

John

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325566

Postby johnhemming » July 12th, 2020, 10:46 am

The article is in many ways another example of how what is a scientific question is viewed through a lens of partisan political bias. Taking its points

1. Deaths lag cases — and that might explain almost everything.

This is foolish. Cases are almost entirely driven by the question of how many tests are taken and who is tested. When someone tests positive for the disease that is almost certainly not on the day they got the disease. Hence unless you are very careful about the populations being tested it is really difficult to find out what is going on.

The mistake they make in the article is to assume that the day on which we find out someone is infected is the date they are infected.

The best and most timely measure of trends is hospital admissions. The UK government appear to have stopped publishing these as the last date published is 1st July and has remained as such for at least a few days.

2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.

This is a bit more rational, but contradicts their point 1.

3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.

If you are finding people who are asymptomatic you will find more younger people. Previously a lot of people had the infection, but no-one knew.

4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment.

5. Summer might be helping — but probably only a little bit.

Because of summer people will get a letter initial viral load and hence are less likely to suffer severely/die. This will change in the winter.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325569

Postby servodude » July 12th, 2020, 10:57 am

They have also been changing the admission criteria for hospitals; which is what they attribute a good deal of the improving recovery rate for admissions in the UK.
If (and it's quite likely) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future, you might find a quick jump in stats, as the triage reverts to emergency methods.
It's a bloody noisy data set.

Stay well
-sd

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325570

Postby servodude » July 12th, 2020, 11:00 am

genou wrote:
Lootman wrote:It was a nice little earner for some doctors who always made it known they were available for this duty.


Poor form. mumble years ago in the Glasgow hospitals the cremmy money was pooled and funded the New Year parties.


Yes! I thought this line of chat was ringing bells; my dad always used to mention he'd contributed over dinner.

-sd

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325574

Postby johnhemming » July 12th, 2020, 11:13 am

servodude wrote:They have also been changing the admission criteria for hospitals; which is what they attribute a good deal of the improving recovery rate for admissions in the UK.
If (and it's quite likely) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future, you might find a quick jump in stats, as the triage reverts to emergency methods.
It's a bloody noisy data set.

This obviously could be a factor. However, it remains that notwithstanding admitting people to hospital at a lower threshold that the number of admissions is going down. If they were admitting people at a higher threshold it would, of course, be a different issue.

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325590

Postby dealtn » July 12th, 2020, 12:26 pm

servodude wrote:They have also been changing the admission criteria for hospitals; which is what they attribute a good deal of the improving recovery rate for admissions in the UK.
If (and it's quite likely) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future, you might find a quick jump in stats, as the triage reverts to emergency methods.
It's a bloody noisy data set.

Stay well
-sd


If (and it's quite likely in my opinion) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future...

I think that's what you meant.

ursaminortaur
Lemon Half
Posts: 6944
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 447 times
Been thanked: 1718 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325592

Postby ursaminortaur » July 12th, 2020, 12:33 pm

A 30 year old man has died in America after attending a Covid party.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-texas-man-dies-covid-party-hoax-a9614231.html

A 30-year-old man died of coronavirus in Texas this week after attending a so-called "Covid party".

Dr Jane Appleby, chief medical officer for Methodist Hospital and Methodist Children’s Hospital in San Antonio, said that the unidentified man’s last words were: “I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.”

In a recorded statement, Dr Appleby said that the patient told nurses about the party which she said was hosted by someone diagnosed with coronavirus.

“The thought is people get together to see if the virus is real and if anyone gets infected,” she said.

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10691
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1459 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325596

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 12th, 2020, 12:40 pm

servodude wrote:It's a bloody noisy data set.
sd

AKA real life.

All non-trivial statistics involve a lot of complexity and corresponding simplifications. The best we can do in real life is the computer simulation with a huge range of input parameters: that helps 'cos we can then tweak individual inputs to see which ones do or don't have substantial (or unexpected) effects on outcomes. But that gets instantly too complex for journos to tell us a story, so they just pick either a central one-guess-among-any case, or else an extreme case to support a point they're trying to spin.

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325598

Postby johnhemming » July 12th, 2020, 12:40 pm

dealtn wrote:If (and it's quite likely in my opinion) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future...

Well we have the hospital admission figures which lag infections by around 2 weeks. Hence you can see if I am right (in that I expect these figures to go down until perhaps mid september) or you are right in that it is "likely" (ie over 50% probbability) that they will go up as a result of the reduction in lockdown controls.

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325603

Postby dealtn » July 12th, 2020, 12:51 pm

johnhemming wrote:
dealtn wrote:If (and it's quite likely in my opinion) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future...

Well we have the hospital admission figures which lag infections by around 2 weeks. Hence you can see if I am right (in that I expect these figures to go down until perhaps mid september) or you are right in that it is "likely" (ie over 50% probbability) that they will go up as a result of the reduction in lockdown controls.


I don't have a strong opinion either way, and am happy to wait and see.

Where I do have a strong opinion is where people who do have strong opinions include them but without saying its an opinion but treat it as fact! My opinion is they shouldn't!

(It wasn't you I quoted doing this).

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325607

Postby johnhemming » July 12th, 2020, 1:07 pm

There's not a lot we can do. Predictions are always opinions.

My opinion is that the countries that face the biggest long term problem are those potentially prone to infection because of climate that were particularly effective in shutting down infection rates at an early stage (eg New Zealand). Those countries face the difficult decision as to when to give up trying to hold back the infection in a big way. It is, of course, possible that a useful vaccination becomes available although unlikely.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#325612

Postby servodude » July 12th, 2020, 2:00 pm

dealtn wrote:
servodude wrote:They have also been changing the admission criteria for hospitals; which is what they attribute a good deal of the improving recovery rate for admissions in the UK.
If (and it's quite likely) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future, you might find a quick jump in stats, as the triage reverts to emergency methods.
It's a bloody noisy data set.

Stay well
-sd


If (and it's quite likely in my opinion) things do get a bit more "busy" again in the future...

I think that's what you meant.


Sorry, I meant "given what's been seen in the US"

Thanks
-sd


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests