Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6096
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 2341 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330884

Postby dealtn » August 4th, 2020, 3:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,


What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330908

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 5:58 pm

dealtn

What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?


The iPhone moment occurred when sales of iPhones began to shoot up and the sales of legacy Blackberry et al., started to decline.

We are seeing that now with the very low sales declines of Tesla and the much larger sales declines of legacy auto.

Sure some folk hate iPhones, some will never buy one, some will decide they have had enough of iPhones, but overall based on the recent Apple conference call the balance is for Apple users across all its addressed sectors to grow in volume and revenue terms.

The average prosperous member of society wants to have the best and most fashionable and migrates towards the vendors who provide that and such folk are not price or quality sensitive as many folk on this board. Of course there are many who struggle to provide the basics to their families, but of those that are above this level the desire for the most fashionable and iconic of the time is relentless.

Regards,

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6096
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 2341 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330910

Postby dealtn » August 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn

What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?


The iPhone moment occurred when sales of iPhones began to shoot up and the sales of legacy Blackberry et al., started to decline.

We are seeing that now with the very low sales declines of Tesla and the much larger sales declines of legacy auto.

Sure some folk hate iPhones, some will never buy one, some will decide they have had enough of iPhones, but overall based on the recent Apple conference call the balance is for Apple users across all its addressed sectors to grow in volume and revenue terms.

The average prosperous member of society wants to have the best and most fashionable and migrates towards the vendors who provide that and such folk are not price or quality sensitive as many folk on this board. Of course there are many who struggle to provide the basics to their families, but of those that are above this level the desire for the most fashionable and iconic of the time is relentless.

Regards,


So you don't know what that "iphone moment" will be, or what the catalyst might be, only that it will happen and we will soon see it. Priceless insight thanks.

You really don't know much about investments boards, and this one in particular, if you think they aren't over-populated with the wealthier and less price sensitive amongst society.

You are long (and at least you admit that) so your views can only be taken as such. I still can't see any reason to get involved in a long position at a price anywhere close to this level. Not short, or interested in being, either.

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330918

Postby Howard » August 4th, 2020, 7:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,


But the amazing fact is that Tesla have spent more than pretty well any company on dubious PR, dwarfing the advertising spend of other car manufacturers. How many billions has Elon taken out of the company for his publicity machine? Sooner or later this spend may adversely affect the results?

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330920

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 7:08 pm

dealtn
So you don't know what that "iphone moment" will be, or what the catalyst might be, only that it will happen and we will soon see it. Priceless insight thanks.

You really don't know much about investments boards, and this one in particular, if you think they aren't over-populated with the wealthier and less price sensitive amongst society.

You are long (and at least you admit that) so your views can only be taken as such. I still can't see any reason to get involved in a long position at a price anywhere close to this level. Not short, or interested in being, either.


If you re-read what I wrote, you will see that I am saying the iPhone moment is happening now for Tesla.

My comment was specifically that investment board opinions should not be relied upon because of the nature of the posters you find on them.

I am not trying to convince anyone to be long or short. Tesla has been a good opportunity. I believe it will be very good going forwards, others don't and have their reasons. That is how markets work.

In the by and by Tesla equity will be well above todays price, about the same, or well below, perhaps zero. There are no other options.

Each investor trader puts down his or her stakes as to what they believe will happen.

So far Tesla and the market of 2020 has been good to me, but I don't know what will happen in the future.

There are folk such as some on the US business program "Fast Money" who believe that Ford and GM are better opportunities than Tesla. Whether they have put any of their wealth on this belief only they know.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330938

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 8:30 pm

Einhorn has lost a fortune shorting Tesla, but he remains convinced that the company is a scam and that inclusion in the S&P will mark the top:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3600141-g ... ent=link-3

Based on his past predictions and the amount of money Einhorn has lost shorting Tesla he currently has no credibility and this looks like a wild swing for the fences that if it doesn't come off will be an infinitesimal add to all his other wrong calls.

Still folk have not withdrawn all their money from his fund, so what does he care?

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330955

Postby dspp » August 4th, 2020, 10:17 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,


But the amazing fact is that Tesla have spent more than pretty well any company on dubious PR, dwarfing the advertising spend of other car manufacturers. How many billions has Elon taken out of the company for his publicity machine? Sooner or later this spend may adversely affect the results?

regards

Howard


Please show me a significant marketing spend in the tsla accounts, and the corresponding spend in either Ford or VW.

Regards, dspp

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330971

Postby Howard » August 5th, 2020, 12:54 am

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,


But the amazing fact is that Tesla have spent more than pretty well any company on dubious PR, dwarfing the advertising spend of other car manufacturers. How many billions has Elon taken out of the company for his publicity machine? Sooner or later this spend may adversely affect the results?

regards

Howard


Please show me a significant marketing spend in the tsla accounts, and the corresponding spend in either Ford or VW.

Regards, dspp


Elon Musk earns a number of emoluments from Tesla but, perhaps the most significant reported by the company was his first performance-based payout, worth more than $700 million.

In the filing submitted to the SEC the company (Tesla) stated:

“As of the date of this proxy statement, one of the 12 tranches under this award has vested and become exercisable, subject to Mr. Musk’s payment of the exercise price of $350.02 per share and the minimum five-year holding period generally applicable to any shares he acquires upon exercise.”

ttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/musk-get ... ayout.html

I’m afraid I’m not going to spend time looking up the earnings of VW or Ford’s CEOs. If you are interested, they are published in their Annual Reports and I would be surprised if you added them together if they come close to Elon Musk’s!

As I am sure you know, there are many forms of publicity, not just advertising, and if you look into it, I think you’ll find the promotional costs incurred by Tesla are pretty enormous for a car manufacturer that had a world market share of around 0.6% last year.

We all have our theories about what the Tesla accounts reveal and conceal - I don’t think that it’s worth spending much time examining them. We both know that, given time, they will prove to be somewhere in between Apple’s and Enron’s. Who knows? ;)

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#330978

Postby odysseus2000 » August 5th, 2020, 5:08 am

VW advertising depend 2015 to 2018, exceeds over $5 billion.per year:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/286 ... worldwide/

VW have also had to spend significant money to comply with the fines for diesel gate, a self inflicted -ve advertising campaign brought about by their own greed.

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331010

Postby dspp » August 5th, 2020, 9:42 am

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
But the amazing fact is that Tesla have spent more than pretty well any company on dubious PR, dwarfing the advertising spend of other car manufacturers. How many billions has Elon taken out of the company for his publicity machine? Sooner or later this spend may adversely affect the results?

regards

Howard


Please show me a significant marketing spend in the tsla accounts, and the corresponding spend in either Ford or VW.

Regards, dspp


Elon Musk earns a number of emoluments from Tesla but, perhaps the most significant reported by the company was his first performance-based payout, worth more than $700 million.

Howard


I don't think that one can in any way shape or form consider a CEO remuneration plan to be 'marketing' expenditure. It is what it says on the tin. And in the case of Musk it only kicks in the tranches in the event of meeting fairly clear success criteria, and then the shares must be held by Musk for 5-years before he can trade them. And since he works for a base salary of $nil he is not rewarded for failure.

As Ody points out VW spends over $5bn/yr on marketing, which I would suggest is the tip of the iceberg as one also ought to consider how the distribution channels (dealerships) are organised. That is $5bn that Tesla does not spend. I'm sorry but your claim about Tesla engaging in dubious but hugely expensive PR is plain wrong.

regards, dspp

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331061

Postby Howard » August 5th, 2020, 11:27 am

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Please show me a significant marketing spend in the tsla accounts, and the corresponding spend in either Ford or VW.

Regards, dspp


Elon Musk earns a number of emoluments from Tesla but, perhaps the most significant reported by the company was his first performance-based payout, worth more than $700 million.

Howard


I don't think that one can in any way shape or form consider a CEO remuneration plan to be 'marketing' expenditure. It is what it says on the tin. And in the case of Musk it only kicks in the tranches in the event of meeting fairly clear success criteria, and then the shares must be held by Musk for 5-years before he can trade them. And since he works for a base salary of $nil he is not rewarded for failure.

As Ody points out VW spends over $5bn/yr on marketing, which I would suggest is the tip of the iceberg as one also ought to consider how the distribution channels (dealerships) are organised. That is $5bn that Tesla does not spend. I'm sorry but your claim about Tesla engaging in dubious but hugely expensive PR is plain wrong.

regards, dspp


Yes, I accept that Tesla doesn’t overtly publish figures which are directly comparable with a legacy manufacturer's Advertising and Marketing spends.

However, in assessing a company’s performance, it may be helpful to read between the lines. Selling cars at around £50k or more should be a profitable activity, especially as Tesla isn’t growing its sales at the current time.

In the past, you and I have debated the cost of Tesla’s approach in setting up its own direct sales/distribution/service. One could classify this as a promotion expense, particularly if the reason given is that legacy manufacturers have expensive distributors.

Tesla’s direct approach looks pretty expensive. In July they sold 387 cars in the UK and 22 cars in Norway using the direct approach. (31 cars in the Netherlands). I don’t know yet how many cars they sold in Germany, but it probably wasn’t many. (And this downward trend in Europe has been developing over around six months.)

Yes, I accept you (and Ody) can pick some classifications of expenditure and show whatever suits the Tesla case. As an investor, I have tended to ignore analysts who look at companies’ finances in detail and make long term forecasts because we all know it is easy to “engineer” good results in the short term. I don’t want to be unkind, but the triumph of Tesla and the destruction of ICE manufacturers has been forecast on this thread (and its predecessor) for more than 10 years and it hasn’t happened yet, despite firms like VW getting caught for the most appalling actions.

Good luck to Tesla investors! As you know, I’m benefiting from their share price performance at the moment. And I'm pro BEV.

But although sales in China have been quite good and the Californians are still buying, common sense tells me that we have to be a bit sceptical about a company spending a lot of money promoting cars in markets where their sales are low.

regards

Howard

Sources for July sales are:

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

https://eu-evs.com/

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331078

Postby odysseus2000 » August 5th, 2020, 12:27 pm

If you scroll down to see global vehicle deliveries by manufacture h1 2020:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4 ... 23b00475a6

You will see that only Tesla is positive.

You can argue that this graph is a lie, but we have not heard any such statements from competitors.

If you look at todays BMW results you will see a profit of over 2 billion has become a loss of over 300 million:

https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/gr ... Online.pdf

The point you make about Tesla's distribution channel being a marketing spend is beyond me. The two things are not the same as any analyst will tell you.

It is one thing to have a negative view of one business and a positive view of its competitors, but although politicians regularly ignore and twist facts as set out in reports to their own benefit, it rarely ends well for investors who do this.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331088

Postby Howard » August 5th, 2020, 12:51 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:If you scroll down to see global vehicle deliveries by manufacture h1 2020:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4 ... 23b00475a6

You will see that only Tesla is positive.

You can argue that this graph is a lie, but we have not heard any such statements from competitors.

If you look at todays BMW results you will see a profit of over 2 billion has become a loss of over 300 million:

https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/gr ... Online.pdf

The point you make about Tesla's distribution channel being a marketing spend is beyond me. The two things are not the same as any analyst will tell you.

It is one thing to have a negative view of one business and a positive view of its competitors, but although politicians regularly ignore and twist facts as set out in reports to their own benefit, it rarely ends well for investors who do this.

Regards,


Ody

Have you looked at the sales of Tesla in the UK, Norway and the Netherlands recently? At the moment, it's expensive selling cars using a direct approach. Using your other favourite company as an example: would it be fair to call Apple's expenditure on their shops, signs etc a promotion cost?

We can indulge in semantics. But coming back to the general point. Is Tesla growing very fast, or has its growth slowed like competitors? Will it make enough income to overcome its costs however they are defined?

regards

Howard

PS Aren't the BMW figures beautifully presented and believable? A quality company! :lol:

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331102

Postby odysseus2000 » August 5th, 2020, 1:27 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:If you scroll down to see global vehicle deliveries by manufacture h1 2020:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4 ... 23b00475a6

You will see that only Tesla is positive.

You can argue that this graph is a lie, but we have not heard any such statements from competitors.

If you look at todays BMW results you will see a profit of over 2 billion has become a loss of over 300 million:

https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/gr ... Online.pdf

The point you make about Tesla's distribution channel being a marketing spend is beyond me. The two things are not the same as any analyst will tell you.

It is one thing to have a negative view of one business and a positive view of its competitors, but although politicians regularly ignore and twist facts as set out in reports to their own benefit, it rarely ends well for investors who do this.

Regards,


Ody

Have you looked at the sales of Tesla in the UK, Norway and the Netherlands recently? At the moment, it's expensive selling cars using a direct approach. Using your other favourite company as an example: would it be fair to call Apple's expenditure on their shops, signs etc a promotion cost?

We can indulge in semantics. But coming back to the general point. Is Tesla growing very fast, or has its growth slowed like competitors? Will it make enough income to overcome its costs however they are defined?

regards

Howard

PS Aren't the BMW figures beautifully presented and believable? A quality company! :lol:


Unless i am missing something, the valuation of a business is based on total sales. One does not say overall sales are good, but because of sales in one market are not as strong as one might want, one should write the rest of the results as meaningless.

Also If you listen to the Apple conference call, or read the results, you will find that Apple had a boost to their results from their stores being closed. If you want to call this advertising, then it seems less advertising brings more sales.

Anyone who focuses on the beautiful presentation of what are terrible results from BMW, really needs to consider if they should be an investor. It's the numbers that matter!

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331111

Postby Howard » August 5th, 2020, 2:00 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Anyone who focuses on the beautiful presentation of what are terrible results from BMW, really needs to consider if they should be an investor. It's the numbers that matter!

Regards,


A common fallacy, Ody. Only if the numbers are correct! ;)

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331121

Postby odysseus2000 » August 5th, 2020, 2:26 pm

A common fallacy, Ody. Only if the numbers are correct! ;)

regards

Howard


Are you implying that a legacy German auto maker is telling porky pies about its results, that the reported disaster in profits down by over 2.3 billion like for like are instead worse?

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 887 times
Been thanked: 1021 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331135

Postby Howard » August 5th, 2020, 2:55 pm

More coverage of the German court findings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53666222

As I have suggested before when the Model 3 was launched, having virtually all the controls on a touchscreen, is a disadvantage.

The local court in Karlsruhe said the driver veered out of his lane while distracted with the console, driving into an embankment and some trees.

Despite acknowledging that the Tesla setup required "significantly more attention from the driver" than a traditional lever setup, it put the onus on the driver to keep their eyes on the road.

It's only one accident, but it wouldn't surprise me if this disadvantage handicaps the sales of this model and the Model Y. Purchasers of premium cars would probably expect a better control system.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6438
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1562 times
Been thanked: 975 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331142

Postby odysseus2000 » August 5th, 2020, 3:07 pm

Howard wrote:More coverage of the German court findings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53666222

As I have suggested before when the Model 3 was launched, having virtually all the controls on a touchscreen, is a disadvantage.

The local court in Karlsruhe said the driver veered out of his lane while distracted with the console, driving into an embankment and some trees.

Despite acknowledging that the Tesla setup required "significantly more attention from the driver" than a traditional lever setup, it put the onus on the driver to keep their eyes on the road.

It's only one accident, but it wouldn't surprise me if this disadvantage handicaps the sales of this model and the Model Y. Purchasers of premium cars would probably expect a better control system.

regards

Howard


We are discussing 1 driver here.

If it was many drivers you might have a point, but 1?

Regards,

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 8959
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1322 times
Been thanked: 3693 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331227

Postby redsturgeon » August 5th, 2020, 7:59 pm

Has anyone here tried using a touch screen in a car in motion?

I have, it is very tricky. BMW's system with a control dial is much easier.

John

kiloran
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4112
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:24 am
Has thanked: 3249 times
Been thanked: 2855 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#331241

Postby kiloran » August 5th, 2020, 8:53 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Has anyone here tried using a touch screen in a car in motion?

I have, it is very tricky. BMW's system with a control dial is much easier.

John

I hired a car a year or two ago with a touchscreen and absolutely hated it. It would carry a lot of weight in my decision-making for a new car.
My Mercedes has a twiddly knob between the front seats which does most of what I need, and no need to take my eyes off the road

--kiloran


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests