NeilW wrote:A groupthink then, since there is little understanding of what reality actually is at the moment. Cases have shot up since the 24th of July when masks were introduced. Yet the response of the groupthink is to do it harder and longer and tell people they're not doing it right, rather than ask questions about the effectiveness of the entire approach compared to the Swedish alternative.
Cases have shot up since the 24th July when -
- Masks were introduced
- Schools were reopened
- Eat Out to Help Out throughout August encouraged people to pack indoors in restaurants and cafes
- Universities reopened, and students from all around the country mingled in halls of residence with tiny rooms, shared kitchens and bathrooms
- Government encouraged people to commute to offices rather than working at home.
From the above possibilities. I'm not at all sure that introducing masks is the main factor in the increase in cases.
And the "Swedish alternative" - what is that exactly? There's a lot of vague references to Sweden (which has 10 times the death rate of its neighbours). We could compare to the Vietnam alternative, or the New Zealand alternative.
The Covid outbreak hit Vietnam early on, with their first case in late-January (compared with UK's first case at end-January).
Number of Covid deaths in Vietnam - 0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody. There was a case of a foreign national who'd ignored social distancing guidelines and was very ill, but they managed to save him.
So, how did a comparatively poor country do so well? (Incidentally, if you want to say Vietnam is a freak/lucky result, take a look at Thailand - 59 deaths in total since the start of the pandemic. For context, the UK is currently experiencing more daily Covid deaths than Thailand has had all year)
Here's some highlights from the Vietnam approach, with a longer link in the quotes below.
Vietnamese leadership began waging war on COVID-19 with early, decisive action.
A national steering committee for COVID-19 control was established promptly and developed a multi-sectoral response plan.
Points of entry have been tightly controlled and suspected cases quarantined immediately.
Testing is conducted both at entry to quarantine and upon exit.
Epidemic control teams have carried out targeted testing and aggressive contact tracing.
At least 110 laboratories across the country
Local authorities are taking a four-tier approach to contact tracing and isolation.
The public is well-informed of personal protective measures.
Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high.
The private sector has stepped up.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes COVID-19 (coronavirus) has led to more than 3.1 million infections and 220,000 deaths globally. With even the wealthiest countries struggling to stop the spread, how can lower middle-income countries with limited resources bring the pandemic under control? With not a single confirmed death from COVID-19 to date, Vietnam’s approach offers useful insights.
The outbreak hit Vietnam early on. In late January, a man from Wuhan passed the coronavirus to his Vietnam-based son. Vietnam was thought to be highly vulnerable, as we have a 1,400 km border with China, busy cross-border travel and trade, a large population of 97 million people, and a lower middle-income economy. However, while many nations have seen cases soar, there have been only 270 confirmed cases (or 2.8 cases per million people) so far in Vietnam.
How has Vietnam kept its case count so low?
Vietnamese leadership began waging war on COVID-19 with early, decisive action. As soon as the first cases were detected, the government recognized COVID-19 as a major threat and took precautionary measures above and beyond World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. These were implemented a week before the outbreak was recognized as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and more than a month before WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.
A national steering committee for COVID-19 control was established promptly and developed a multi-sectoral response plan. While many countries were debating their health and economic choices, Vietnam’s government made an unequivocal decision to prioritize health over economic growth , “fighting the epidemic as an enemy”. This commitment from the highest level of leadership paved the way for the Ministry of Health and other relevant ministries to implement unprecedented measures for the COVID-19 response.
Points of entry have been tightly controlled and suspected cases quarantined immediately. Vietnam was one of the first countries to halt passenger flights from high-risk areas and to quarantine international travelers. Since late January, the government has required all people arriving from China to submit a health declaration and undertake quarantine in government-controlled facilities for 14 days. These requirements were gradually expanded to those arriving from the Republic of Korea, the United States, and EU countries. Quarantine is largely in military facilities and is free of charge.
Testing is conducted both at entry to quarantine and upon exit. To date, 162 imported cases have been detected, which is about 60% of COVID-19 infections. International travel restrictions and institutional quarantine interrupted the influx of cases, giving the country more time to prepare.
Epidemic control teams have carried out targeted testing and aggressive contact tracing. The National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology succeeded in culturing and cultivating the SARS-CoV-2 virus early, enabling domestic institutions to produce test kits. The Ministry of Health initially targeted only those with travel histories for testing, along with close contacts of confirmed cases and people presenting with COVID-19 symptoms. Testing has recently been expanded to hot spot communities and at-risk settings such as wholesale markets in Hanoi and industrial zones in Ho Chi Minh City.
At least 110 laboratories across the country can perform real-time polymerase chain reaction testing for COVID-19 diagnosis, with a capacity of 27,000 samples per day. As of April 30, Vietnam had conducted 261,004 tests, with 967 tests per positive case or 2691 tests per million population.
Local authorities are taking a four-tier approach to contact tracing and isolation. Localized centers for disease control and preventive health facilities are closely collaborating with hospitals in case detection, isolation and treatment. Confirmed cases are considered tier one and must be isolated and treated in health facilities. Home-based isolation of confirmed cases is not allowed in Vietnam, to prevent transmission to family members. Currently, hospitals and health centers face neither overwhelming demand nor supply shortages, so sufficient resources remain available for all COVID-19 patients.
Tier two is for the close contacts of confirmed cases, who must undertake testing and government-run quarantine. Those in tier three have had close contact with tier two cases: they must self-isolate at home. The fourth tier involves isolation of entire communities. Local authorities have isolated two villages, a commune, and a hospital.
Over 134,000 people had undertaken institutional quarantine and/or isolation in Vietnam by mid-April. Vietnam’s targeted testing, aggressive contact tracing and multi-tier isolation system has greatly contributed to its success in controlling COVID-19.
The public is well-informed of personal protective measures. The Ministry of Health informs the public of positive cases and potential exposures, and has provided guidelines for disease prevention on its websites. A government-run media campaign, including a viral music video, has promoted personal protective behaviors, while public and private telecom companies have collectively sent 3 billion messages on COVID-19 prevention to mobile phone users.
Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high. Wearing face masks is mandated in public places, and alcohol-based hand sanitizers are widely available. Religious sites and schools have been closed for three months.
The private sector has stepped up. Factories have shifted their focus to manufacturing medical supplies, helping the health system avoid shortages of personal protective equipment and ventilators. Philanthropists have installed “rice ATMs” to feed vulnerable people amid an economic slowdown.