servodude wrote:swill453 wrote:There's a whole bunch of data in this FT page (free to view). Possibly too much to draw any specific conclusions but I haven't spent that much time on it.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/Scott.
That was a decent read thanks.
I was a bit surprised by this quote:
On average, places that were hit hardest in the spring are suffering the most in the autumn- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level
I would have thought that there might have been some relative reduction this time around in parts that suffered more earlier:
- either through having learned from experience
- or from the susceptible cohort having been infected previously
I guess it's still early days in the second wave though
-sd
"One of the hopes in some quarters had been that herd immunity could provide some protection, with places hard-hit in the spring sheltered from the worst of any resurgence in the virus due to increased antibody levels. Unfortunately, that has proved not to be the case so far, with many of the centres of the outbreak in the spring also suffering the worst in the autumn, both at the country and subnational region level."
This comes just before your quote. The graphs that come after are interesting. Some examples such as Paris are high in wave 1 and high in wave 2 (if that's the correct terminology). Others such as London are high in wave 1 and low in wave 2.
Earlier in the piece was the section on the US with the header being "Most Of The US Is Not Like The US". In there you get "When the virus claimed thousands of victims in the spring, the centre of the crisis was New York City, its suburbs and similar cities in the north-east; vast swaths of the country were largely unaffected. As the year wore on, startlingly different geographical patterns emerged. Once confined to the most densely populated cities, the virus seeped out into small-town and rural America, with places such as Hancock county, Georgia, (population: 8,457) registering among the highest death rates in the country. By early October, the overall death rate was highest in counties classified as the small towns and rural areas — and lowest in large urban counties." This suggests the pathway of the pandemic is changing as you would have thought, with the initial most affected areas being less affected as things progress.
All genuinely interesting.