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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
zico
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348487

Postby zico » October 17th, 2020, 3:35 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
XFool wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:You didn't provide a link to the lengthy extracts but is this your source?:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/containing-coronavirus-covid-19-lessons-vietnam

If so, it may be worth noting it was dated 30 April 2020. Since then there have been reported deaths in Vietnam. Not many but I think 35 when I last looked. Even so, I hope the count continues to be extremely low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/


Yes, that's where I looked but not '0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody'.


Yes, you're right, the World Bank article was my source. I didn't spot it was dated end-April.
But the basic point remains unchanged, as Vietnam has had 35 covid deaths, and here we're currently having 35+ deaths in every 12-hour period.

dealtn
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348488

Postby dealtn » October 17th, 2020, 3:41 pm

zico wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:


Yes, that's where I looked but not '0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody'.


Yes, you're right, the World Bank article was my source. I didn't spot it was dated end-April.
But the basic point remains unchanged, as Vietnam has had 35 covid deaths, and here we're currently having 35+ deaths in every 12-hour period.


I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Of course that isn't to say there aren't lessons we could still learn, and you would hope that, like in many things in life, we should be looking for and adopting "best practice".

zico
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348489

Postby zico » October 17th, 2020, 3:44 pm

If you want a simple and cheap answer to tackling coronavirus, here it is - "nasal irrigation". Here's a link.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... r-BB14aOJi

Here's a more conventional article, which misses out nasal irrigation, but includes boring stuff about masks, quarantines and not accepting tourists from Covid hot-spots. Also talks about economic damage to Thailand.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/thailands ... c-failure/

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348496

Postby johnhemming » October 17th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Hospital admissions up from 706 to 792 most regions up.

NeilW
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348524

Postby NeilW » October 17th, 2020, 7:30 pm

zico wrote:From the above possibilities. I'm not at all sure that introducing masks is the main factor in the increase in cases.


That's precisely the same approach that was used for their introduction though wasn't it. There was a ton of confounding factors, yet they were all ignored because of the rather naive micro logic of masks.

So why is premature extrapolation good in one direction, but not the other?

NeilW
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348525

Postby NeilW » October 17th, 2020, 7:34 pm

XFool wrote:"Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high." - I wonder if this is the key factor?


I suspect being an unreconstructed communist dictatorship is the key factor in Vietnam.

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348526

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 7:42 pm

NeilW wrote:
XFool wrote:"Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high." - I wonder if this is the key factor?

I suspect being an unreconstructed communist dictatorship is the key factor in Vietnam.

But it's all about the science, isn't it?

:lol:

langley59
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348527

Postby langley59 » October 17th, 2020, 7:50 pm

dealtn wrote:I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348528

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 7:57 pm

langley59 wrote:
dealtn wrote:I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.

My memory is that, at first, people arriving - at least those arriving home - were taken to places of isolation. But this stopped at some point. Presumably when it had already 'escaped' into the community. I cannot remember now, but assume that was not too long before the lockdown was imposed.

This thread only started with lockdown.

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348530

Postby johnhemming » October 17th, 2020, 8:09 pm

One of the uncertainties is when the infection started in the UK. There is reasonable evidence for December 2019.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348531

Postby Mike4 » October 17th, 2020, 8:11 pm

langley59 wrote:Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.


Yes I thought that too. ISTR even saying so at the time.

Sealing off borders against incoming infection seems almost as obvious a step to take as wearing face coverings so your coughs, sneezes, breath and saliva when talking don't go all over other people. ISTR there being a massive effort to fly home something like 11m ex-pats from all over the world at the time, which struck me as monumental stupidity. I even heard a figure of 20m brought back to UK but that seems to high too be credible. They should all have been told to sit tight where they were and NOT come home in my opinion.

Like you say, back in the beginning the govt seemed to take every opportunity to get the virus imported, established and spreading as fast as they could.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348574

Postby Wuffle » October 18th, 2020, 8:32 am

A chat with neighbours (sharp employees of a big Midlands University) opened my eyes to the number of post Christmas / New Year returning students to our globally (China) integrated University complex. Fit and healthy youngsters with no symptoms.
If it is taken as domestically significant recently, it was then, internationally.
And that is just on top of normal business travel prior to that.

W.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348591

Postby Itsallaguess » October 18th, 2020, 10:37 am

It's hard to keep up with some of the more useful real-time COVID charting options that have been popping up in various online locations, but I've found this one useful because it shows a five-day rolling average down to local-areas by postcode -

https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/c462b02b-1470-430d-b513-127cdfd64c6b.html

Image

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348612

Postby swill453 » October 18th, 2020, 11:57 am

There's a whole bunch of data in this FT page (free to view). Possibly too much to draw any specific conclusions but I haven't spent that much time on it.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348623

Postby servodude » October 18th, 2020, 12:14 pm

swill453 wrote:There's a whole bunch of data in this FT page (free to view). Possibly too much to draw any specific conclusions but I haven't spent that much time on it.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/

Scott.


That was a decent read thanks.

I was a bit surprised by this quote:
On average, places that were hit hardest in the spring are suffering the most in the autumn
- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level

I would have thought that there might have been some relative reduction this time around in parts that suffered more earlier:
- either through having learned from experience
- or from the susceptible cohort having been infected previously

I guess it's still early days in the second wave though

-sd

dealtn
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348631

Postby dealtn » October 18th, 2020, 12:40 pm

servodude wrote:
swill453 wrote:There's a whole bunch of data in this FT page (free to view). Possibly too much to draw any specific conclusions but I haven't spent that much time on it.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/

Scott.


That was a decent read thanks.

I was a bit surprised by this quote:
On average, places that were hit hardest in the spring are suffering the most in the autumn
- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level

I would have thought that there might have been some relative reduction this time around in parts that suffered more earlier:
- either through having learned from experience
- or from the susceptible cohort having been infected previously

I guess it's still early days in the second wave though

-sd


"One of the hopes in some quarters had been that herd immunity could provide some protection, with places hard-hit in the spring sheltered from the worst of any resurgence in the virus due to increased antibody levels. Unfortunately, that has proved not to be the case so far, with many of the centres of the outbreak in the spring also suffering the worst in the autumn, both at the country and subnational region level."

This comes just before your quote. The graphs that come after are interesting. Some examples such as Paris are high in wave 1 and high in wave 2 (if that's the correct terminology). Others such as London are high in wave 1 and low in wave 2.

Earlier in the piece was the section on the US with the header being "Most Of The US Is Not Like The US". In there you get "When the virus claimed thousands of victims in the spring, the centre of the crisis was New York City, its suburbs and similar cities in the north-east; vast swaths of the country were largely unaffected. As the year wore on, startlingly different geographical patterns emerged. Once confined to the most densely populated cities, the virus seeped out into small-town and rural America, with places such as Hancock county, Georgia, (population: 8,457) registering among the highest death rates in the country. By early October, the overall death rate was highest in counties classified as the small towns and rural areas — and lowest in large urban counties." This suggests the pathway of the pandemic is changing as you would have thought, with the initial most affected areas being less affected as things progress.

All genuinely interesting.

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348632

Postby johnhemming » October 18th, 2020, 12:40 pm

servodude wrote:- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level

At a country level climate is more important.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348636

Postby Mike4 » October 18th, 2020, 12:52 pm

johnhemming wrote:
servodude wrote:- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level

At a country level climate is more important.


Climate not weather?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348642

Postby swill453 » October 18th, 2020, 1:08 pm

johnhemming wrote:
servodude wrote:- n.b. they're referring to places at a country level

At a country level climate is more important.

More important than what?

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#348650

Postby johnhemming » October 18th, 2020, 1:49 pm

The weather/climate is more important than prior infection.


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