vrdiver wrote:I had a quick look at their fundamentals and confess saw only a stagnating company operating in, amongst other areas, a dubious (Personal Injury)
The question for any business (for my strategy) is whether the share price is below what the company is logically worth. This particular business has has to change its business model. As part of that it has invested further in various sorts of legal services. If you consider first the question as to whether people will stop having accidents. The answer in the short term is "no" as there will continue to be accidents and consequential PI claims (the business also does conveyancing - which does depend on turnover in the property market) and Critical care which depends upon people being ill.
At the moment there is a negotiation going on as to an all share offer from Frenkel who have an argument about synergy. It is likely that any agreed takeover will get majority support from NAH shareholders as there are some substantial institutional holders who are probably driving this.
Hence you need also to consider where that may be placed although that also is not certain.
Ignoring that, however, we have a business which is running on a forecast PE of about 4 with a NAV of about £1.20.
As I see it that gives a number of opportunities for up side. Although the economy in its current state is not that good for them they are coping with the situation.
I tend to think the best assumption is to accept the takeover from Frenkel as long as it is reasonably priced and then hold for the medium to long term as the market more generally picks up.