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HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
Alaric
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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358079

Postby Alaric » November 19th, 2020, 1:20 pm

Wizard wrote:Taking account of the next three years we now have:
Year 0 - 26.8%
Year 1 - 26.2%
Year 2 - 27.1%
Year 3 - 31.1%
Year 4 - 33.2%
Year 5 - 31.8%
Year 6 - 35.4%
Year 7 - 37.8%


If you didn't care much about capital values and believed that diversification would suffice to reduce or remove income volatility, why not dump the idea of equal capital weight and go for equal income weight? That way at outset, each subset of three shares out of fifteen would contribute 20% of the income. Over time that would change with dividend increases and cancellations, but presumably more slowly than with equal capital weight.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358087

Postby Gengulphus » November 19th, 2020, 1:34 pm

dealtn wrote:My recollection was that 20 years ago Stephen Bland "selected" a portfolio of 15 shares. There was no "rules" of the system then about ranking by yield, one per sector etc. ...

No need to rely on recollection - here are links to archived copies of the articles in November 2000, which are an introduction to the strategy and the selection of HYP1 (though the portfolio was only given that name later).

There were 'rules' telling you how to select the shares, and there were also suggestions about how one might go about it. For example, the first of those links says:

"Stick to FTSE 100 companies and spread the holdings around sectors. I would do it by ranking the shares in the index by descending yield, then work down the list choosing one from each sector, but doing a bit of research on each potential candidate. You don't want excessive debt, for example. Another useful clue is to pick only those companies that have increased dividends regularly over the last few years."

The first sentence of that quote is 'rules', telling the reader what to do. The rest of it is (as it says) how pyad would go about following those 'rules', implicitly suggesting that readers do the same, rather than being 'rules' themselves. And both 'ranking by yield' and 'one per sector' are there - but in the suggestions, not the 'rules'. So basically, I think you're right when you say "There was no 'rules' of the system then about ranking by yield, one per sector etc.", but it's worth clarifying that only means that those elements weren't 'rules' then, not that they weren't around at all then.

And it's also worth pointing out that the second of those links says:

"To obtain a little more choice, I went marginally outside the FTSE 100 index and set £1.5b as my minimum capitalisation filter."

so that there was a bit of flex in the "Stick to FTSE 100 companies" 'rule', and it also says:

"There is a definite bias towards financials, with two banks and two insurance companies. However Royal & SunAlliance (LSE: RSA) is a composite with a leaning towards general insurance, whereas Britannic (LSE: BRT), I believe, is involved wholly or mainly in life products. On the banks, Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY) is a clearer with substantial international involvement, but Alliance & Leicester (LSE: AL.) is a UK-based mortgage bank.

There is also a something of a bias towards holes in the ground, with two of the world's leading mining companies and an oil major. I like these companies and in fact would include some or all of them in long-term-hold growth portfolios at the moment as well as this income package. The same goes for some of the banks and insurers too.
"

so even pyad himself didn't entirely follow his "choosing one from each sector" suggestion - he made some sort of case that Britannic and Royal & Sun Alliance were in somewhat different sectors, and similarly for Alliance & Leicester and Lloyds, but it's very hard to make such a case for Anglo American and Rio Tinto and he didn't even try to do so.

Gengulphus

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358090

Postby dealtn » November 19th, 2020, 1:57 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
There were 'rules' telling you how to select the shares, and there were also suggestions about how one might go about it. For example, the first of those links says:

"Stick to FTSE 100 companies and spread the holdings around sectors. I would do it by ranking the shares in the index by descending yield, then work down the list choosing one from each sector, but doing a bit of research on each potential candidate. You don't want excessive debt, for example. Another useful clue is to pick only those companies that have increased dividends regularly over the last few years."

...



Agreed. All of which backs up (I think) what I said. The marginal choices around the shares, made then, and subsequently, are what made the performance, both Income and Capital what it was. Marginally different choices, by either sticking closer to, or flexing from, those "rules" may well have turned out over the 20 years significantly different outcomes. Be that Income, Capital or Diversification.

HYP1 is what it is. But ultimately it is no more than a single, but public, example portfolio of the potential portfolios within a HYP Strategy. Over reliance on it as any kind of "proof" of anything is suspect. Many on here, hopefully the majority, fully understand that.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358144

Postby Bubblesofearth » November 19th, 2020, 5:20 pm

dealtn wrote:
HYP1 is what it is. But ultimately it is no more than a single, but public, example portfolio of the potential portfolios within a HYP Strategy. Over reliance on it as any kind of "proof" of anything is suspect. Many on here, hopefully the majority, fully understand that.


Of course and that works both ways. It does not prove HYP is a successful strategy but nor does it prove it is a flawed strategy. Pointing to higher risk because of imbalance misses the possibility that without the evolved imbalance it may not have increased in value as much in the first place. The higher risk may have come because of allowing that growth.

What is better, an unbalanced £200,000 portfolio or a well balanced £100,000 portfolio? If that seems extreme remember that it is fairly representative of HYP1 current value vs what a similar investment in the FTSE100 would now be worth.

I agree HYP1 is a single data point but some of the specific criticisms of that portfolio seem misguided to me given its performance to date.

BoE

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358158

Postby Itsallaguess » November 19th, 2020, 5:39 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Most people, I would say, just keep a HYP running and they either "know" it works well enough or that it's been a failure.


Not forgetting that well-known poster who keeps a HYP running *even though his own records* show that it's been a failure Arb....

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=24960&p=335451#p335443

I'm teasing, of course, and I know full well that you're happy to continue with both experiments, so please, the above is just a leg-pull given the recent talk of record-keeping...

As an aside, are you able to update the chart linked above with the HYP and income-IT figures up to this month, as I'd go so far as to say that your 'income-per-unit' chart is one of the most interesting long-term personal investment records that I've ever seen on this site, and especially so given that it's comparing two of the most discussed income-strategies...?


I thought of your earlier comment as I wrote my previous post :) I almost mentioned that some of us don't just boaat about the good news: I have always aspired to being transparent and showing what my HYP is doing whether good or bad. As the results have fallen behind over the years, the observant will have noticed that the proportion of my wealth invested in ITs has increased compared with HYP. I'm not rushing to make changes, and that is because throughout my investing life, I've been aware of what I call the "supermarket queue" syndrome. Change queues from a slow one to a faster, and the faster queue then slows down.

With investment, it can take decades to find essential truths, and it's likely that by the time, the market has morphed towards another fashion. At present HYP is receiving a huge shock with Covid, the first major test since I started, and I am not about the abandon the experiment now during its most interesting time.

As regards the income chart - yes, I'll put up the latest version during the day. As you can imagine, HYP looks very sad against ITs at present.


Thanks Arb - I can understand why you want to persevere with both the HYP vs IT experiment, and it's of course welcome and interesting that you do. I don't keep as good a performance record as some on these boards, but I can certainly tell you that the overall feel for my own HYP/IT income-split record over the past few years feels very similar to the divergent processes on your own income-unit chart -

Image

If we were to get back to brass-tacks, what many of us are wanting to see from our income-investment strategies is to see fairly predictable dividends that might generally rise over time, and hopefully above inflation whilst it does so, and it's fairly clear from looking at your own income-unit chart above that someone starting out today might be able to make a judgement on a suitable income-investment strategy that might have a chance to deliver on those two original 'predictable & rising' demands.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358159

Postby Adamski » November 19th, 2020, 5:48 pm

Been scrolling through. Hard going this thread! For light relief.... The backstory to HYP1... the acolyte tries a few investing strategies, which don't work. So he sets out and travels east, and ends up in Kathmandu. He meets a guru called the Ancient One who teaches him to tap into powers he doesn't know he had, and sets out on a quest to fight a mystic battle between HYP and Anti-HYP, collecting blue chip stocks along the way, to provide a stable dividend cash flow. or something like that :lol:

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358283

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2020, 8:05 am

I thought it might be useful to publish and updated version of that income chart. It compares my HYP income per unit to my benchmark - my ARBIT (basket of income ITs). This time, I've put up the income progress for the income OEICs too.
Image

Each point consists of the four previous quarters added together: the latest points are for September 2020. In numbers, the change from this September from September 2019 are as follows:-

2019   2020
HYP 7.34 5.4
ITs 7.52 7.66
OEICS 7.4 7.3


YOY to September, HYP income dropped 26% whereas InIT income increased 1.8%. I keep hoping I've made some error in the table, but I don't think so :( One surprise to me is that the OEICS have stood up well, which considering they do not have reserves, can only point to their managers being better stock pickers than I am.

You may ask why on this showing, am I not switching out of HYP. You must be kidding - abandon the experiment just when it's getting interesting? After all, I knew this was likely to happen when I started in 2006/7, and I thought through what I would do in the event of the next crash. Whilst it's true there is now relatively more capital in ARBIT I have removed only a smidgen from HYP.

My feeling is that I want to see what happens through a whole cycle from growth to crash and back.Until Covid, if one recalls that far back, HYP was doing what it said on the tin.

Arb.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358315

Postby funduffer » November 20th, 2020, 9:36 am

Here is my comparison of income per unit for my HYP against my high yield IT portfolio up to October 2020:

Image

Month one is April 2015 (where the data is normalised), a year after starting each portfolio, to eliminate most of the dividend drag effects from the initial purchases.

The recent reduction in income per unit from the IT's is due entirely to dividend drag - I have not had any dividend reductions, but I have increased the number of units through several IT purchases this year.

The large drop in income per unit from my HYP is entirely due to the reduction in dividends, as I have not changed the number of units since January this year.

Similar story to arb's, I suppose.

FD

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358316

Postby Gengulphus » November 20th, 2020, 9:37 am

Arborbridge wrote:I thought it might be useful to publish and updated version of that income chart. ...

An interesting chart, but it does rather over-dramatise what is happening - visually, the HYP income per unit looks to have dropped to about 1/6th of its peak (an 83%ish drop), when it's actually down by 25-30%. Which is not to say that a 25-30% income fall isn't very bad - it is! - but the chart makes it appear to be not just very bad, but an utter catastrophe!

The feature of the chart that causes that visual over-dramatisation is its vertical axis, which runs from 5 to 9: a vertical axis that starts at a positive number rather than zero amplifies percentage changes visually. And I should stress that I'm talking about a visual effect - my brain can tell me that the HYP income-per-unit has fallen from under 7.5 to over 5, so by less than a third, but my eyes still tell me that it's fallen off a cliff!

Incidentally, I'm not saying never to use charts with vertical axes that start well above zero: not having that visual amplification can make it hard to see detail. But it is a good idea when changes look very dramatic to try forcing the vertical axis to start at zero and take a look to see how dramatic they actually are...

Gengulphus

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358350

Postby Alaric » November 20th, 2020, 11:11 am

Arborbridge wrote: One surprise to me is that the OEICS have stood up well, which considering they do not have reserves, can only point to their managers being better stock pickers than I am.


Active managers have the ability to convert capital into dividends by the device of selling ex dividend and buying cum dividend. Careful scrutiny of their reports would be needed to discover the extent to which they had been doing this. The unbiased comparison would be against ETFs where the quarterly dividends of TSE100 trackers do seem to have fallen through the floor.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358433

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2020, 1:50 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I thought it might be useful to publish and updated version of that income chart. ...

An interesting chart, but it does rather over-dramatise what is happening - visually, the HYP income per unit looks to have dropped to about 1/6th of its peak (an 83%ish drop), when it's actually down by 25-30%. Which is not to say that a 25-30% income fall isn't very bad - it is! - but the chart makes it appear to be not just very bad, but an utter catastrophe!

The feature of the chart that causes that visual over-dramatisation is its vertical axis, which runs from 5 to 9: a vertical axis that starts at a positive number rather than zero amplifies percentage changes visually. And I should stress that I'm talking about a visual effect - my brain can tell me that the HYP income-per-unit has fallen from under 7.5 to over 5, so by less than a third, but my eyes still tell me that it's fallen off a cliff!

Incidentally, I'm not saying never to use charts with vertical axes that start well above zero: not having that visual amplification can make it hard to see detail. But it is a good idea when changes look very dramatic to try forcing the vertical axis to start at zero and take a look to see how dramatic they actually are...

Gengulphus


Is this what you meant? :-

Image

Still looks horrid, but I'll keep the scale like that if it's deemed preferable.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358443

Postby TUK020 » November 20th, 2020, 2:29 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Is this what you meant? :-

Image

Still looks horrid, but I'll keep the scale like that if it's deemed preferable.


Apologies for being dense, but I am trying to unpick what normalised income per unit actually means in terms of relative yield

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358445

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2020, 2:34 pm

TUK020 wrote:
Apologies for being dense, but I am trying to unpick what normalised income per unit actually means in terms of relative yield


You'd need to relate that to the price per unit which isn't shown. I'd have to delve into the records if you need that. As a generalisation, very roughly, the HYP yield is around 1% or more higher than the IT yield, and the OEIC yield probably about half percent less than the ITs.

That's a broad brush guess, but it varies over time, naturally.

Arb.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358448

Postby Gengulphus » November 20th, 2020, 2:37 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Is this what you meant? :-
...
Still looks horrid, but I'll keep the scale like that if it's deemed preferable.

Yes, that's what I meant, and yes, I agree it still looks horrid - just not so utterly catastrophic! In particular, one can see how much space the HYP line has available to fall into.

FWIW, my impression is that it will probably fall further in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, though possibly more slowly as some deferred dividends are caught up on, since those are quarters in which pre-pandemic dividends get replaced by post-pandemic ones in your rolling 4-quarter totals, and then to start rising again because the the quarters being replaced and the quarters replacing them are both post-pandemic, but the latter have had more time to recover from its initial shock. If that happens, it will incidentally mean that there are five falling quarters in a row rather then the four one would expect from pandemic effects - the odd one out being the fall from December 2019 to March this year. I notice though that there was a largish rise in the same quarter a year earlier - was there perhaps a particularly large payment in Q1 2019 that caused the fall in Q1 this year when it vanished from the rolling 4-quarter total?

Finally, I'm not pushing for you to use a zero-based scale all the time. It's worth using one at times to make it easy to see the overall significance of the changes being charted, but it's also worth using a positive-based scale when one wants to use the space to illustrate as much detail as possible...

Gengulphus

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358455

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2020, 2:46 pm

Gengulphus wrote:Yes, that's what I meant, and yes, I agree it still looks horrid - just not so utterly catastrophic! In particular, one can see how much space the HYP line has available to fall into.

FWIW, my impression is that it will probably fall further in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, though possibly more slowly as some deferred dividends are caught up on, since those are quarters in which pre-pandemic dividends get replaced by post-pandemic ones in your rolling 4-quarter totals, and then to start rising again because the the quarters being replaced and the quarters replacing them are both post-pandemic, but the latter have had more time to recover from its initial shock. If that happens, it will incidentally mean that there are five falling quarters in a row rather then the four one would expect from pandemic effects - the odd one out being the fall from December 2019 to March this year. I notice though that there was a largish rise in the same quarter a year earlier - was there perhaps a particularly large payment in Q1 2019 that caused the fall in Q1 this year when it vanished from the rolling 4-quarter total?

Finally, I'm not pushing for you to use a zero-based scale all the time. It's worth using one at times to make it easy to see the overall significance of the changes being charted, but it's also worth using a positive-based scale when one wants to use the space to illustrate as much detail as possible...

Gengulphus


The biggest anomaly was the BHP special which would have distorted Q1 2019.

This year, there have been a few changes (such as buying PHP and BBOX) which might cause income to switch between quarters. However, it will all come out in the wash.

Arb.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358462

Postby TUK020 » November 20th, 2020, 2:57 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
Apologies for being dense, but I am trying to unpick what normalised income per unit actually means in terms of relative yield


You'd need to relate that to the price per unit which isn't shown. I'd have to delve into the records if you need that. As a generalisation, very roughly, the HYP yield is around 1% or more higher than the IT yield, and the OEIC yield probably about half percent less than the ITs.

That's a broad brush guess, but it varies over time, naturally.

Arb.


So, for an equivalent starting capital investment, this chart would show how income generation has evolved comparatively if I shifted the HYP line up a point, and the OEIC down half a point.
Says HYP was doing well until everything went pear shaped.
ITs were a close follower, but then pulled ahead
OEICs have lagged ITs all the way
Have I understood this correctly?

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358493

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2020, 3:53 pm

TUK020 wrote:
So, for an equivalent starting capital investment, this chart would show how income generation has evolved comparatively if I shifted the HYP line up a point, and the OEIC down half a point.
Says HYP was doing well until everything went pear shaped.
ITs were a close follower, but then pulled ahead
OEICs have lagged ITs all the way
Have I understood this correctly?


Broadly, that's right. Mt feeling is that the HYP has been hanging on to the coat-tails of the IT income growth but in the last year or two couldn't quite do as well for growth. Then came Covid..... and HYP was trashed.

Arb.

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358569

Postby ReformedCharacter » November 20th, 2020, 6:49 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Broadly, that's right. Mt feeling is that the HYP has been hanging on to the coat-tails of the IT income growth but in the last year or two couldn't quite do as well for growth. Then came Covid..... and HYP was trashed.

Arb.

Arb, I'd be interested to know which IT's you hold, I'm sure you've posted it somewhere, any chance of a link or a list? Thank you.

RC

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358598

Postby Itsallaguess » November 20th, 2020, 9:25 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Is this what you meant? -

https://i.imgur.com/cKaIYSj.jpg

Still looks horrid, but I'll keep the scale like that if it's deemed preferable.


Yes, that's what I meant, and yes, I agree it still looks horrid - just not so utterly catastrophic!

In particular, one can see how much space the HYP line has available to fall into.


<School careers office>
So, have you ever considered a job in advertising Gengulphus?
</School careers office>

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP1 is 20 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

#358621

Postby monabri » November 20th, 2020, 11:35 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Broadly, that's right. Mt feeling is that the HYP has been hanging on to the coat-tails of the IT income growth but in the last year or two couldn't quite do as well for growth. Then came Covid..... and HYP was trashed.

Arb.

Arb, I'd be interested to know which IT's you hold, I'm sure you've posted it somewhere, any chance of a link or a list? Thank you.

RC



Possibly, this one from Sept 2020.

viewtopic.php?p=339626#p339626


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