odysseus2000 wrote:HI Howard,
I think you are missing some points here. No, I was trying to stick to facts and deductions from verifiable data, rather than voice opinions.
Many of the folk who will lease a Tesla will have off road parking and will swing for the home charging setup. Yes
Home charging should last for several years, so that the cost per year over say 10 years is small. Yes, but things are changing fast and a Tesla charger might be obselete in three years. Another car brand may be more competitive next time. It is sensible to write off the cost of the charger over the tenure of the car
With home charging many users can forget about petrol stations, never needing to use one. Yes, it's obvious a BEV driver doesn't need to visit a petrol station. However a 10k a year driver will often go on a journey which requires a time consuming detour and charge en route. In the UK superchargers are still thin on the ground and detours may be necessary to find one.
A home user with roof top solar will get his/her electricity for less. If a power wall is installed they have both protection against power cuts and close to zero cost for electricity and again the power wall is designed to last 20 years, so the cost per year and added selling point if the house is sold are pluses. With respect, I don't think this applies to the average Tesla model 3 driver. It's a bit irrelevant and very costly to install. £20k upwards for solar and a Tesla powerwall. Retro fitted solar panels can destroy the look of a nice house!
However, I think the biggest error you are making is forgetting how affluent people in the UK are and how having the newest and in this case greenest transport is a big thing for many and if that also saves them a few bob and future proofs them against what ever methods of paying for the pandemic the treasury dream up that hurts ICE, all the better. Again, with respect, I don't think you are aware of the average guy leasing a Tesla. if you look at owner threads in the UK, the majority are young guys making the most of subsidised company car driving. It's very rare to find affluent "green warriors" who are buying/leasing their own cars.
There is a class of folk who will only have the best and although one might argue its a small minority, the volume of sales of expensive Apple and similar products goes against such thoughts. With experience people tend to become more resistant to such thoughts, but for young executives with ambitions there is a strong need to show how successful, prosperous and currently how green you are. If one wants the best and wants to show off, one might choose a Porsche.
I will be very surprised if BEV do not become the must have for many and that the brand of choice will be Tesla. Yes, forgive me, this is a pious hope of yours but repeating it over the years hasn't made it come true in the UK. And looking for pointers abroad, Tesla's market share of the BEV segment in China and Europe has dropped dramatically this year. We'll see if it gets better in Europe with all the cars due to arrive in the next four weeks, but Chinese consumers are choosing other BEVs rather than Teslas at the moment.
If as I expected, the Chancellor brings back the fuel escalator or similar, the second hand market for BEV will also rise up and confound the leasing companies who are not imho looking far enough forward and are assuming that nothing will change. Again, this is your long-held opinion. But it's not happening yet and may still be a few years away. Don't be too concerned about the welfare of leasing companies they are profitable and successful and they know a lot more about car costs than we do.
regards
Howard