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Renewable + conventional trends

Dod101
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357765

Postby Dod101 » November 18th, 2020, 2:26 pm

I plan to buy a new car in the spring but it will be an old fashioned petrol fuelled one. I will let the infrastructure for charging points get sorted first although a non charging hybrid seems to me to be a sensible compromise for now.

Dod

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357787

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 18th, 2020, 3:24 pm

richfool wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
richfool wrote:And where will all the recharging points be for these "all electric" cars, including those for people who only have street parking or live in apartments.

My suggestion would be that they will be on their house outside walls, next to where the gas/leccy box is right now. Don't you think?

Matt

For people who have no parking adjacent to where they live and park 100 yards up the street on the other side of the road, assuming they can even get a parking space that close to home?

Good point. One can assume that 1000s (1000000s) of charging points will need to be installed close to all such residences.

Maybe there won't be a large enough number of charging points installed across the country and it will force poorer people (who can't afford their own parking space) out of car ownership.

I can only speculate.

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357841

Postby 88V8 » November 18th, 2020, 4:57 pm

This is all becoming a bit carish, but that will be the green interface for most households... I have three ICE cars which have already far exceeded the average 14 year scrap age of overcomplex modern barges - 30, 46 and 57 years old.

Given my age, I will probably make it to the end of my driving life without needing to change any of them, but I await with interest the prospect of re-powering them with an electric powertrain. Presently there are very few retrofit offerings for classics and they are £££.

Fast charging... from what I've read, fast charging degrades the battery so this does not seem a viable substitute for a home charger.

And the idea that a 20kw charger equates to a 3kw kettle, maybe on average but if it's anything like my admittedly 50 year-old charger, it charges a lot more at the outset and then tapers off. Whereas a 3kw kettle is a 3kw kettle.

And the politicos will have a hard time convincing us that we have to supplement reducing fuel duty revenues with road pricing while we are still paying fuel duty.

Oh well, Boris will be comfortably out of it by the time the various sh1t hits the fan.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357884

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 6:42 pm

88V8 wrote:This is all becoming a bit carish, but that will be the green interface for most households... I have three ICE cars which have already far exceeded the average 14 year scrap age of overcomplex modern barges - 30, 46 and 57 years old.

Given my age, I will probably make it to the end of my driving life without needing to change any of them, but I await with interest the prospect of re-powering them with an electric powertrain. Presently there are very few retrofit offerings for classics and they are £££.

Fast charging... from what I've read, fast charging degrades the battery so this does not seem a viable substitute for a home charger.

And the idea that a 20kw charger equates to a 3kw kettle, maybe on average but if it's anything like my admittedly 50 year-old charger, it charges a lot more at the outset and then tapers off. Whereas a 3kw kettle is a 3kw kettle.

And the politicos will have a hard time convincing us that we have to supplement reducing fuel duty revenues with road pricing while we are still paying fuel duty.

Oh well, Boris will be comfortably out of it by the time the various sh1t hits the fan.

V8


1. Repowering tends to be dismally uneconomic. Fun mind you, but these days it tends to be Tesla guts that get used. Because they are the best guts.
2. Fast charging vs slow charging re degradation is not that big an issue for any packs with good characteristics and good thermal management.
3. Tapering is very definitely an issue, that is why optimum use for long (>200 mile) journeys tends to be to charge from ~20% SoC to ~60-70% SoC unless there are lengthy charger-deserts to cross.
4. Most home-charging will be slow charging, and at >80% SoC, so from say 80% to say 90% (because it is generally best not to go to 100% as that is something that needlessly done provokes battery degradation via dendrites) is generally similar to your average kettle/oven/similar, i.e. no-big-deal. (see the taper issue at 3).

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#358859

Postby tramrider » November 21st, 2020, 6:11 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Thanks I won't quote, but I have been told when looking to go full BEV from PHEV that my 7kw charger is not powerful enough. Amongst others, this is PodPoint (my charger supplier) telling me. Even if we have a 100 x 7kw chargers down the street all switched on overnight for 8 hours, this is not the same as boiling say 30 x 3kw kettle at halftime for five minutes. That's 700kw load for more or less all night. Multiplied by every street in the UK. I realise the true outcome is yet to be seen and it's very rough numbers, but indicative of real issues ahead. Buy copper miners?

RVF


We have had our second hand BEV for a year and a half and got a 7kW PodPoint installed with it inside our garage. I think we have only used this charger twice, ever. We just use the 2.5kW granny cable charger most of the time, particularly when we have enough sunshine and power from our 3.8kw solar panels to run it.

A better way of looking at your charging needs is to think of your annual and daily car mileage. Most BEV cars are now delivering around 4 miles per kWh. We do 8000 miles per year, which converts to 2000 kWh per year, which averages 6kWh per day. Typically we use the granny charger for less than 3 hours per day. Actually it is a lot less as we use the motorway services rapid chargers during our long journeys. So the need for 100 x 7kW chargers on your street is probably overstated, unless they all have long commutes every working day.

After considering your annual mileage, if you are worried, just get a PHEV for the next few years and only charge it for local journeys. ;)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360204

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 10:58 am

Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360224

Postby dspp » November 26th, 2020, 11:28 am

richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects


See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... e_page.pdf for full 100-page text of the wider 'infrastructure' stuff,
- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360231

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 11:51 am

It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy, (or beyond my pay grade!).

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360248

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 26th, 2020, 12:21 pm

richfool wrote:It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy.

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

More assets getting built won't hurt them, and will help vindicate their regular raising of new funds. But neither will it be a windfall: that falls to building new assets, not operating existing ones.
that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)


Oil and gas, maybe: we're finally beginning to gnaw away at its lunch - or at least the growth thereof in the UK market. So long as there isn't another big u-turn. But bearing in mind the big new markets electricty is to fill (cars, home boilers, to name only the consumer-facing ones), there's a long, long still way to go.

And bear in mind TPTB speak with forked tongue as they continue to support expansion of fossil fuels.

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

The potential for income - upwards or downwards - will always be priced in to the assets when the green infrastructure funds acquire them.

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?


That's been a commodity market for a while: the question there is China vs new emerging manufacturing hubs. But I imagine it can't hurt the likes of SSE, developing major new assets (or maybe it can - by helping competitors undercut Dogger). And more interestingly, developers of more interesting technologies (like tides and waves) and of snake-oil solutions (like carbon-capture or biofuels) - at least until the next U-turn.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360273

Postby daveh » November 26th, 2020, 1:14 pm

richfool wrote:It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy, (or beyond my pay grade!).

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?



You know how CFDs work? AIUI the government may not have to pay out any subsidy - in fact the government might get paid by the companies (ie us the user). The government is agreeing to pay a minimum price for electricity from a developer's generation asset for a set time (usually 15 years for the ones I've seen). If the price the company can sell the electricity at is less than the strike price the Government make up the difference. If the price is more than the strike price the company pays the Government the difference*. It guarantees the company a known amount of money per MWh so reduces the risk ( providing they have calculated the strike price correctly). For us the user it seems to have been forcing down the future price of electricity as the strike prices are pretty low (see https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/al ... le-markets). Wholesale prices have been falling from £50-60/MWh in 2018 to about £30/MWh today.

For example Dogger bank wind farm is 3x 1200MW wind farms https://www.investegate.co.uk/sse-plc-- ... 00065950G/ and has contracted to receive £39.65/MWh for 1/3 from 2023/24 and £41.61/MWh for 2/3 of the total capacity from 2024/25 all in 2012 prices raising by CPI. (So on todays wholesale price they'd be being paid a subsidy, if they'd been generating in 2018 the company would have been paying the LCCC.

Looking at the Dogger bank example they are going to receive £3.6b (in 2012 money) over 15 years (if it generates the predicted amount of power) yet the committed debt facility to build it is £5.5b in todays money and £3.6b is only ~£4.3b in todays money. Making a profit on these generation assets is going to be tight even if everything is built to time and on budget. Or is the profit coming beyond year 15 when hopefully the debt has been paid off?


* government = Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360331

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 26th, 2020, 4:05 pm

richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360353

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 4:32 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

Yes, agreed, along with JLEN (their SP's and NAV's have weakened).

Maybe its safer to stick with the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360356

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm

richfool wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

Yes, agreed, along with JLEN (their SP's and NAV's have weakened).

Maybe its safer to stick with the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

Hmm...maybe...perhaps it's just due to the falling cost of energy. And if more invest in it, then eventually it becomes a cheaper commodity.

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360412

Postby dspp » November 26th, 2020, 6:24 pm

"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360461

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 10:29 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

Step forward GRID who have just had an oversubscribed share placing for exactly that purpose. It won't be their last.

RVF

GRID, in preference to GSF?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360523

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 27th, 2020, 10:02 am

Is that GRID as in National Grid NG. people? Sorry to be slow.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360565

Postby 88V8 » November 27th, 2020, 11:43 am

dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on"

More batteries required.

Exactly.

I hear much blather about turbines but nothing about batteries. Are we actually doing anything? At scale, that is.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360597

Postby dspp » November 27th, 2020, 12:40 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on"

More batteries required.

Exactly.

I hear much blather about turbines but nothing about batteries. Are we actually doing anything? At scale, that is.

V8

Yes, but not enough is the answer. Given that new serious energy storage assets such as Dinorwic are not on the agenda because nobody wants to commit such huge capital and supply of suitable mountains isn't on every street corner, then the answer is yes but not enough in my opinion.

Grid scale energy storage is a massive hole in the middle of the new energy landscape jigsaw. Given the commitment to a massive increase in intermittent generation, the situation becomes ever more urgent.

RVF


The issue of the correct level of investment to put into storage infrastructure is not easy to answer. If one just takes a purely economic view to simplify things a really big conundrum is what is the value of delay, and what is the cost of delay ?

On the cost of delay side, most western/OECD economies get a significant free ride because they already have a fully-built dino-juice power station network, which is in effect being prematurely retired simply because the renewables are undercutting them now on LCOE basis. That creates a free ride because to a significant extent a reasonable amount of that is gas turbines (esp the OCGTs, less so the CCGTs) that can be run for intermittency cover and will have lifetimes that could easily go another 30-40 years in reduced usage (as it is the running hours that dictate gas turbine lifetimes). So one can take the view that delaying investment into storage, whilst waiting for the cost of storage to fall, and in the meantime using those gas turbines that have already been paid for as intermittency cover, is the best pathway.

The value of delay is of course the opportunity to wait until those batteries have halved in price from $100/kWh to $50/kWh, and for all the other costs and designs associated with that to have stabilised. But whilst waiting any given country (or company) will have given up the opportunity to become the market leader in making them profitably & etc.

On balance I would like the UK to be moving a bit faster than the UK is, but not too much. I am afraid Brexit has already shot the UK's opportunity to be a real manufacturing centre for batteries at the relevant scale. So on this occasion the UK should hold back and let others carry the costs and the pain, then the UK buys from them at a later date and a lower price. The reality for the next 10-years is that I expect the UK to make lots of political announcements in this area, enough that every minister and their dog can talk utter horsecrock, and enough that the UK utterly overpays on the cost side, without getting much meaningful on the value side. That would be the normal trajectory for the UK in this sector.

Funnily enough a recruiter was asking me just these questions yesterday. They too are trying to learn.

regards, dspp

P.S. UK tiddlers getting into storage and Questor & etc are all ignoring the big boys coming down the tracks: TSLA, BYD, LG, Panasonic. My TSLA is doing nicely at setting the pace. Glad I'm not a tiddler on the tracks.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360605

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 27th, 2020, 12:55 pm

The big storage is in hydrogen IMHO.

So my speculative purchase of CWR (Ceres Power) - up about +60% since I purchased a couple month back.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360625

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 27th, 2020, 2:00 pm

Yup, I know, they're a tiddler ;)


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