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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389093

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2021, 11:07 am

I am ambivalent on the recent weakness in Tesla equity and wonder if we are now seeing a rotation out of tech and into more basic industries as the propaganda on the war with Covid has become more positive. This is the scenario that happened in the tech crash of 2000, although in that case there was no Covid component. We are also seeing several business raising cash such as shop and twlo.

Add to this is what will Powell do? Will he raise rates to add to the rises in the 10 year that started 2021 at 0.93% and are now around 1.3%, a large increase for bonds.

Bill Maurer has done a piece on Tesla that imho is too Tesla specific and misses the overall market picture;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440812 ... king_alpha

Yesterday Tesla gapped down and sold off 8.55%, the Nasdaq was off 2.46%, so clear relative weakness in Tesla and no obvious short term catalyst to cause a recovery.

From a competitor perspective, Tesla has come through the recent months strongly with serious troubles for Hyundai and a major recall underway that will also hurt their battery supplier and reduce the amounts of batteries available for other business.

The competitiveness of the ID3 is also far from clear due to various troubles and as far as i know they have not issued a denial about VW to VW sales being counted as general sales.

Maurer also cites increasing raw material costs in particular Nickel and Copper and he estimates that these will add several hundred $ to each Tesla.

Price action on the 27th of January suggested to me that investor interest in Tesla could be waning and rather than just noting it i ought to have sold at least a substantial amount of my holding. The low of $801 contrasts with yesterdays low of $710.20, but that is water under the bridge and the question is what to do going forwards.

My overall impression is that Tesla are still the leaders in BEV, but if we are seeing sector rotation the equity price can weaken from here. There is a clear reversal on the monthly chart and the exciting moves in bitcoin will also have sucked some funds from Tesla even though Tesla’s bitcoin holding has so far proved an inspired move.

There is also the mood music and lots of folk, such as Scotty Kilmer who I linked a few posts ago giving many arguments as to why the US are not ready for BEV. All of his arguments ignore co2 emission and although his comments on hydrogen have some sense, that technology is still a long way away.

The extreme cold weather in the US and particularly Texas is being taken to show that Global warming is not real, whereas extreme weather volatility is what global warming predicts.

One can expect the entire Texas power grid to be substantially upgraded after the murderous freeze, although there are news stories that Texas requested permission to increase power output and was refused by Washington:

https://twitter.com/DJcalligraphy/statu ... 63488?s=20

The failure of the Texas power grid is also likely good news for roof top solar sales and power walls.

I have two potential approaches in my mind. One is to ignore the current price falls and simply hold through to what in a few years time will be a much stronger Tesla. The second is to return to a more active trading approach with the danger that if there is a reversal I might not be able to buy back to the size I now have.

As often Tesla is a difficult stock to fathom.

Regards,

dealtn
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389099

Postby dealtn » February 23rd, 2021, 11:22 am

odysseus2000 wrote:.. the danger that if there is a reversal I might not be able to buy back to the size I now have.



The average daily volume hasn't been below 20 mio shares for months. How big is your position such that this is a genuine concern!

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389156

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2021, 12:51 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:.. the danger that if there is a reversal I might not be able to buy back to the size I now have.



The average daily volume hasn't been below 20 mio shares for months. How big is your position such that this is a genuine concern!


No, you misunderstood.

I have a cash limit on how much I will acquire. If I sell here & then for some reason the price rockets up I will not be able to buy back the same number of shares unless I increase my limit on what I will spend. Alternatively if I sell here & the price halves I can buy back the same number of shares or more for less cash.

The limit is my own, not the daily volume.

Price action over the last year has wrong roaded me a few times & so I have been less enthusiastic about trading the share plus I wracked up some big tax bills in the process & during this period I would have done better to have simply held. That time though may have passed for the reasons I mentioned or others that I have missed.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389162

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2021, 1:06 pm

Fascinating conspiracy theory: Texas snow sent by Bill Gates:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14133822/ ... rce=pushly

Is there any limit to how wild these theories get and how there are many vested interests trying to steer anything as evidence that global warming is fake?

I kind of wonder if these stupidities do more harm to the fossil fuel industry than good as even the worst educated folk will recognise this has garbage.

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389164

Postby BobbyD » February 23rd, 2021, 1:09 pm

Well if you will invest in companies whose CEO tweets that Bitcoin is expensive after the company buys $1.5 Billion BTC...

The drops only cost him $15 Billion so far. Back in the 6's premarket.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389206

Postby BobbyD » February 23rd, 2021, 2:52 pm

Erm, opening didn't go well. -$90 @ 626.

Other related companies dropping:

Image

- https://twitter.com/crtrud/status/1364225557576130567

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389207

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2021, 2:55 pm

BobbyD wrote:Erm, opening didn't go well. -$90 @ 626.

Other related companies dropping:

Image

- https://twitter.com/crtrud/status/1364225557576130567


Yes, it may be a rotation out of tech and into staples as I mentioned earlier, or it may be nothing.

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389223

Postby BobbyD » February 23rd, 2021, 3:32 pm

Earlier this month, Motional became one of the first companies in the world to operate driverless vehicles on public roads. Our inaugural testing took place in Las Vegas this month and consisted of multiple driverless vehicles safely navigating intersections, unprotected turns, and interactions with other road users, including pedestrians and cyclists.


- https://motional.com/motional-operates- ... lic-roads/

Motional = APTIV + Hyundai

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389445

Postby dspp » February 24th, 2021, 9:57 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Erm, opening didn't go well. -$90 @ 626.

Other related companies dropping:

Image

- https://twitter.com/crtrud/status/1364225557576130567


Yes, it may be a rotation out of tech and into staples as I mentioned earlier, or it may be nothing.

Regards,


The ideal would be a drop from $700 down to the $50 where I bought mine, followed by a rapid rise back to the recent high of $900. Ideally with the low timed to take place in April/May. At present I have a potential CGT problem that I would prefer to sidestep.

So, if BD could arrange that I'd be very grateful. Both the drop and the rise. Just give me warning in advance so I can be standing by on the tax button :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389463

Postby BobbyD » February 24th, 2021, 10:48 am

dspp wrote:The ideal would be a drop from $700 down to the $50 where I bought mine, followed by a rapid rise back to the recent high of $900. Ideally with the low timed to take place in April/May. At present I have a potential CGT problem that I would prefer to sidestep.

So, if BD could arrange that I'd be very grateful. Both the drop and the rise. Just give me warning in advance so I can be standing by on the tax button :)

regards, dspp


A one off or say a quarterly cycle?

Personally as a collector I prefer low share prices, although if I'd dabbled with Tesla directly I'd have used protection. A pity to win the lottery and then have to sign over a slice to the chancellor, but better than not winning the lottery. You could become the forums first tesla owner with the proceeds!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389473

Postby dspp » February 24th, 2021, 11:06 am

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:The ideal would be a drop from $700 down to the $50 where I bought mine, followed by a rapid rise back to the recent high of $900. Ideally with the low timed to take place in April/May. At present I have a potential CGT problem that I would prefer to sidestep.

So, if BD could arrange that I'd be very grateful. Both the drop and the rise. Just give me warning in advance so I can be standing by on the tax button :)

regards, dspp


A one off or say a quarterly cycle?

Personally as a collector I prefer low share prices, although if I'd dabbled with Tesla directly I'd have used protection. A pity to win the lottery and then have to sign over a slice to the chancellor, but better than not winning the lottery. You could become the forums first tesla owner with the proceeds!


A one off will do, I'm not sure my nerves could cope with a quarterly cycle. But do warn me in advance please, so I can brace myself and be ready.

I think I'd want to see more like $1600-$2000 before I could justify a new Tesla. My norm would be a third or fourth hand one in about a decade ......

regards, dspp

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389475

Postby BobbyD » February 24th, 2021, 11:08 am

dspp wrote:
I think I'd want to see more like $1600-$2000 before I could justify a new Tesla. My norm would be a third or fourth hand one in about a decade ......

regards, dspp


I might run off a quick batch of my other Tesla share is a Ferrari bumper stickers then...

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389481

Postby odysseus2000 » February 24th, 2021, 11:26 am

The ideal would be a drop from $700 down to the $50 where I bought mine, followed by a rapid rise back to the recent high of $900. Ideally with the low timed to take place in April/May. At present I have a potential CGT problem that I would prefer to sidestep.

So, if BD could arrange that I'd be very grateful. Both the drop and the rise. Just give me warning in advance so I can be standing by on the tax button :)

regards, dspp


Bitter experience has taught me to not let the investment dog be lead by the tax tail.

Sure none of us like paying tax and i didn't enjoy what I had to pay the IRS last year, but the worst kind of tax is paying none because one has made a loss.

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Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389511

Postby Howard » February 24th, 2021, 12:37 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
The ideal would be a drop from $700 down to the $50 where I bought mine, followed by a rapid rise back to the recent high of $900. Ideally with the low timed to take place in April/May. At present I have a potential CGT problem that I would prefer to sidestep.

So, if BD could arrange that I'd be very grateful. Both the drop and the rise. Just give me warning in advance so I can be standing by on the tax button :)

regards, dspp


Bitter experience has taught me to not let the investment dog be lead by the tax tail.

Sure none of us like paying tax and i didn't enjoy what I had to pay the IRS last year, but the worst kind of tax is paying none because one has made a loss.

Regards,


More fun to invest through ISAs. And US shares in a SIPP. No CGT to pay and one can take time to manage the returns.

Perhaps it's an advantage of being able to build a portfolio over decades. :)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389515

Postby BobbyD » February 24th, 2021, 12:47 pm

Howard wrote:More fun to invest through ISAs. And US shares in a SIPP.


Did you just imply having WHT protection on Tesla dividends????

That might be the craziest thing I ever heard!


Anybody looked at Hyundai as an investment?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389598

Postby BobbyD » February 24th, 2021, 3:44 pm

Teslounge Tesla Showroom In Romania Is Not Actually Owned By Tesla


- https://insideevs.com/news/490288/teslo ... -by-tesla/

Independent dealer network?

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#389697

Postby odysseus2000 » February 24th, 2021, 6:49 pm

These two videos describe 3 charges for electric cars. Each video is extraordinarily comprehensive and may provide too much detail for some. The discussion considers the electronics, the grants, the advantages of portability produced with "commando" style plugs, the advisory to not install a commando plug directly but to do so, at little extra cost, using an interlocked plug.

The first video (41.57 min) describes two charges that can be purchased from Aliexpress:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jT8IsAd9ea0


The second video (45.29 mins) describes the ohme, smart charing cable (EVSE) that is offered by Octopus energy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O58KT117crs

The quality of the inspection is again first class and concluded with a practical measurement of what happens if the cable is dunked in salt water.

The reviewer has no qualms about using any of these chargers, although since these video were made the issue of burning Hyundai during charging has appeared.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389726

Postby dspp » February 24th, 2021, 7:56 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Teslounge Tesla Showroom In Romania Is Not Actually Owned By Tesla


- https://insideevs.com/news/490288/teslo ... -by-tesla/

Independent dealer network?


And an unpaid one at that !

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389813

Postby BobbyD » February 25th, 2021, 12:16 am

Volkswagen ID.3/4 Production In Zwickau Increased To Over 800 A Day


- https://insideevs.com/news/490431/volks ... u-800-day/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389866

Postby dspp » February 25th, 2021, 10:17 am

So there was a $100 swing (down then up) in a $700 share price in 24-hours on no TSLA news, in the middle of a fairly lengthy no-news period.

Odd.

Image

(credit to Google for graph)


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