TUK020 wrote:BobbyD wrote:It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”
Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.
It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.
In a straight comparison it is notable that Northvolt circumvented this very problem in reverse when designing their first batteries, and went to Japan to hire their design team.
LFP is an interesting case. Initially overlooked in favour of flashier, more energy dense chemistries for cars in the sophisticated west it was left to 'golf buggies' in the orient. Now it is used by Tesla the sniffiest of battery snobs and will power the 'Entry' tier of VW's unified Cell programme as well as BYD's blade as used by GM.
But far from being because batteries are 'simple' this turn around is because in the real world they are actually quite hard. Note the non-existence of the mythical Tesla 4680 for example, whose absence has so far bought the Roadster, the S Plaid Plus, the Semi and the CT to a grinding halt. Or consider that the entire reason for the dominance of Li-ion batteries now is because nobody has been able to successfully produce commercially viable Lithium batteries which aren't prone to shorting and catching fire in the mere 5 decades since they were developed.
Meanwhile another (predominantly) Chinese company Gotion (26% owned by VW) has pushed LFP density to 210 Wh/kg, and is aiming for 260 Wh/kg next year. Refinement being easier than bleeding edge development.
If Quantumscape (20% VW) can get their separator to production then LFP will get another substantial boost as it is cathode agnostic and would allow pure Lithium anodes to be used in LFP as well as more exotic chemistries, radically increasing energy density again. It's obviously a tech with a future, but that future is built on the real world difficulties inherent in other batteries.
BobbyD,
would be interested in an update.
Has this picture changed any?
tuk020
That's quite a wide ranging quote, and it's been a whole 4 months, anything in particular?
Plenty of new entrants are continuing to fail to go out of business, although obviously there will be fallers. Rivian have made it to market, with a very nice product and frankly ludicrous market cap, whilst established players are announcing more serious investments, and who will manage to deliver what, when and for how much is in many cases up for debate.
Interestingly, from my point of view, both the initial Fisker Ocean design and the new electric Delorian designs were produced for 'upstarts' by Italdesign, VW's Italian design studio giving us what you might call a 'hybrid' electric vehicle.
The only sign of progress on Tesla's 4680 is a claim that they have made enough packs for about 1000 cars, and Panasonic's target to start production in
2 years time. New battery developments remain mainly at the press announcement stage as far as I've seen.
Oh, and quantumscape released a white paper which included these:
-
https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... rformance/which they described a s a cell capable of charging 10% to 80% in under 15 minutes whilst demonstrating over 80% energy retention over 400 cycles, but if you look at the graphs they are both far quicker than 15 minutes and retain far more than 80% energy retention after 400 cycles.
PeterGray wrote:BobbyD wrote:It’s easier for Chinese EVs to be successful than Chinese internal combustion cars because European and American automakers have a long history in making engines, it’s hard for Chinese automakers to catch up overnight,” says Ji Shi, an analyst at Haitong International Securities in Hong Kong. “But EVs are different because they are simpler in terms of their structure and Chinese automakers have better supply chains in terms of batteries.”
Agree with the premise but not the conclusion.
It's obviously hard for your 1st, 2nd and 3rg gen engines to compete with somebody else's 35th, 36th and 37th gen engines. However I would suggest it is easier to compete with electric cars not because the tech is simpler but because despite both batteries and motors having been around forever in technological terms, and both having been in cars 130 years ago in terms of modern electro-automotive everybody is still in their early generations and nobody has opened up a significant gap yet. The race is easier because everybody is still on or about the start line.
.....
But that's only considering the drive chain.
There's more to a good car than that - bodies that work, are cost effective to repair, suspensions sytems that work and last, etc, etc. People like VW and Toyota have decades of experience at that. And they make good cars as a result. That's not that easy to catchup with overnight.
I'm not saying it's sufficient, but it is an advantage fewer for legacy and an added area where they can make what turns out to be a very costly decision. Easier for upstarts, not easy.
Personally I'd say legacy's real advantage isn't in the car at all, but in the production engineering, but then that, along with their understanding and utilisation of scale, is why I'll back VW against all comers.
Yes, but an interruption in the supply of electrical harnesses as a result of Russian invasion of your supplier is unlikely to be long lasting or relevant to the endeavour to transition to electric cars.