Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442101

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 11:55 am

Howard
It's fun to debate automotive investment issues with someone who is living in the past and harks back to the good old days of British Leyland. Perhaps someone who hasn't driven in a city for many years and who finds it difficult to envisage everyday driving situations faced by the average motorist driving a relatively new car?

Tesla and its competitors are dealing with the issues of today's motorist. The British car industry of the last century is an irrelevancy in today's fast moving world.

regards

Howard


Folk on legacy boards are doing what they always do, sticking their heads in the sand and ignoring what is going on.

I am far from living in the past and usually get checked by folk who say I am living in the future which hasn't arrived yet, but the future is where equities get their prices and so I am happy to be living there. I have been bullish on Tesla through all the days when folk expert on the auto trade said Tesla had no hope and would be annihilated by legacy etc. The future I saw then has arrived and I am now looking at what comes next.

For a growth investor/trader ones favourite word is next and knowing what is likely to come is helped from intense study of previous revolutions in technology which is always useful. I recall one pundit telling me that the predicted Tesla production growth was impossible, no one had ever gone that fast, but having studies how Ford when they revolutionised transportation increased production I knew he was talking rubbish.

Incidentally unless you are a delivery driver what is the point of driving nowadays. I can have everything I want delivered. The only point I bother driving now is for stuff associated with my small businesses when I am doing shows and bringing or taking out stuff that is bulky and easier to put in my car than organise a courier. Anyone routinely driving about is living in a world that is unnecessary. Sure they may enjoy the drive but I have more things to do than available time and I don't want to waste time driving if i don't have to.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2192
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 886 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442105

Postby Howard » September 14th, 2021, 12:02 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:IMHO most legacy car makers are doing most things wrong. All of them are trying to squeeze as much money out of existing ICE production as possible and are not investing sufficiently in BEV. It is all so reminiscent of how the UK car industry collapsed having rubbished Japanese cars only to have punters discover that UK cars were greatly inferior to Japanese, this time even the Japanese are being complacent as Chinese BEV autos rise rapidly.

Has it escaped your notice that BEVs are not exactly the flavour of the month among the car buying public?

They are reacting to market demand. Tesla have only one string to their bow, so do not have the problem.

TJH


Since most folk have no clue about cars and even less about BEV it does not surprise me that many are still buying ICE. However, that is changing rapidly as shown in the rate of change of BEV sales which is wildly positive whilst legacy auto is assuming there will be a smooth and gentle decline in ICE sales and that they can appear green by offering plug in hybrids. Sooner or later folk will get switched on to BEV and will not want obsolete ICE or ridiculous hybrids and the folk who have BEV to sell will do well whilst the folk who haven't will have very unhappy boards and very upset shareholders.

Regards,


So you're suggesting that virtually every major manufacturer will do well as every major car firm has BEV models to sell. Perhaps apart from Toyota?

Would you suggest which major manufacturers don't have BEVs in their ranges?

I'd guess most UK motorists have more of a clue about cars than you suggest. And a lot more experience of driving a modern car than some.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442122

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 12:30 pm

Howard
So you're suggesting that virtually every major manufacturer will do well as every major car firm has BEV models to sell. Perhaps apart from Toyota?

Would you suggest which major manufacturers don't have BEVs in their ranges?


All motor makers have to appear green to the politicians, but their heart is still in ICE, trying to generate as much profit as they can and the politicians are bending over backwards to keep them going and allowing ridiculous hybrids to get rebates and such. Few have the capacity to generate substantial BEV cars, most have no in-house battery manufacturing and most are doomed.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442141

Postby BobbyD » September 14th, 2021, 1:04 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
So you're suggesting that virtually every major manufacturer will do well as every major car firm has BEV models to sell. Perhaps apart from Toyota?

Would you suggest which major manufacturers don't have BEVs in their ranges?


All motor makers have to appear green to the politicians, but their heart is still in ICE, trying to generate as much profit as they can and the politicians are bending over backwards to keep them going and allowing ridiculous hybrids to get rebates and such. Few have the capacity to generate substantial BEV cars, most have no in-house battery manufacturing and most are doomed.

Regards,


With Merc and BMW this is actually likely the opposite. Knowing electrification is inevitable they are retreating to less price sensitive more brand sensitive segments of the market where they can sell BEV's with a positive margin rather than trying to compete against companies who are better armed for the midrange market. It's completely in keeping with Daimler taking in Geely to make Smart a JV.

The only car company currently making money from battery production as far as I'm aware is VW?

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2192
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 886 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442151

Postby Howard » September 14th, 2021, 1:29 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
So you're suggesting that virtually every major manufacturer will do well as every major car firm has BEV models to sell. Perhaps apart from Toyota?

Would you suggest which major manufacturers don't have BEVs in their ranges?


All motor makers have to appear green to the politicians, but their heart is still in ICE, trying to generate as much profit as they can and the politicians are bending over backwards to keep them going and allowing ridiculous hybrids to get rebates and such. Few have the capacity to generate substantial BEV cars, most have no in-house battery manufacturing and most are doomed.

Regards,


With Merc and BMW this is actually likely the opposite. Knowing electrification is inevitable they are retreating to less price sensitive more brand sensitive segments of the market where they can sell BEV's with a positive margin rather than trying to compete against companies who are better armed for the midrange market. It's completely in keeping with Daimler taking in Geely to make Smart a JV.

The only car company currently making money from battery production as far as I'm aware is VW?


Ironically the companies who made the most profit from the decline of the UK car industry last century were arguably not Japanese but BMW, Mercedes and VW who all supplied high-margin cars and massively grew their market shares.

Sadly Ody's recollections of what happened aren't necessarily correct. Maybe forecasts of the demise of German manufacturers will prove more accurate, but they haven't over the last 10 years or so even despite despicable dieselgate! ;)

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442162

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 1:53 pm

BobbyD
With Merc and BMW this is actually likely the opposite. Knowing electrification is inevitable they are retreating to less price sensitive more brand sensitive segments of the market where they can sell BEV's with a positive margin rather than trying to compete against companies who are better armed for the midrange market. It's completely in keeping with Daimler taking in Geely to make Smart a JV.


Yes, this is certainly on the boards minds, but I think it is doomed because what BMW and Merc are doing assumes they can maintain the image that they make the best cars on the planet and with a large marketing spend they can no doubt convince some to believe them. But there cars are not that great and as more and more free advertising goes to Tesla the image that BMW and Merc make the best cars is slipping away to Tesla. Once that image is sufficiently tarnished the fashion conscious folk who have been loyal customers of BMW and Merc will no longer have the status of riding in the best cars.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442166

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 2:01 pm

Ironically the companies who made the most profit from the decline of the UK car industry last century were arguably not Japanese but BMW, Mercedes and VW who all supplied high-margin cars and massively grew their market shares.

Sadly Ody's recollections of what happened aren't necessarily correct. Maybe forecasts of the demise of German manufacturers will prove more accurate, but they haven't over the last 10 years or so even despite despicable dieselgate! ;)

regards

Howard


BMW and Merc date back to the early days of autos and had UK market share and once made some of the best cars in the world, that sold to well paid folk while others had to manage with the poor quality from BMC, Ford and Chrysler.

Then the Japanese came from zero market share to significant market share. Honda and Nissan built factories here and folk associated Japanese cars with the highest quality possible with Toyota getting legendary status for reliability.

Meanwhile the entire prosperity of the UK rose and more and more folk had cars and the Germans took some of that rising tide, but to say they benefitted the most is to ignore that the Japanese and later Koreans started with nothing and then grew gigantically.

Now we are seeing the Chinese and Tesla beginning to get their piece of the cake. Legacy auto had its chance to compete but has mostly blown in and now comes a punishment for being myopic, greedy and stupid.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2192
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 886 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442178

Postby Howard » September 14th, 2021, 2:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Ironically the companies who made the most profit from the decline of the UK car industry last century were arguably not Japanese but BMW, Mercedes and VW who all supplied high-margin cars and massively grew their market shares.

Sadly Ody's recollections of what happened aren't necessarily correct. Maybe forecasts of the demise of German manufacturers will prove more accurate, but they haven't over the last 10 years or so even despite despicable dieselgate! ;)

regards

Howard


BMW and Merc date back to the early days of autos and had UK market share and once made some of the best cars in the world, that sold to well paid folk while others had to manage with the poor quality from BMC, Ford and Chrysler.

Then the Japanese came from zero market share to significant market share. Honda and Nissan built factories here and folk associated Japanese cars with the highest quality possible with Toyota getting legendary status for reliability.

Meanwhile the entire prosperity of the UK rose and more and more folk had cars and the Germans took some of that rising tide, but to say they benefitted the most is to ignore that the Japanese and later Koreans started with nothing and then grew gigantically.

Now we are seeing the Chinese and Tesla beginning to get their piece of the cake. Legacy auto had its chance to compete but has mostly blown in and now comes a punishment for being myopic, greedy and stupid.

Regards,


I enjoy your contradictions. Now you admit that Toyota got "legendary status for reliability".

You remember why they gained this enviable reputation. By making hybrids which over many years have proved supremely more reliable than Teslas. :)

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442187

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 2:38 pm

I enjoy your contradictions. Now you admit that Toyota got "legendary status for reliability".

You remember why they gained this enviable reputation. By making hybrids which over many years have proved supremely more reliable than Teslas. :)

regards

Howard


No the reputation of Toyota for reliability was earned long before BEV where even a twinkle in Elon's eyes. You may remember how Top Gear tried to destroy a Toyota pickup and yet is always started to drive again.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2192
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 886 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442214

Postby Howard » September 14th, 2021, 3:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I enjoy your contradictions. Now you admit that Toyota got "legendary status for reliability".

You remember why they gained this enviable reputation. By making hybrids which over many years have proved supremely more reliable than Teslas. :)

regards

Howard


No the reputation of Toyota for reliability was earned long before BEV where even a twinkle in Elon's eyes. You may remember how Top Gear tried to destroy a Toyota pickup and yet is always started to drive again.

Regards,


Ody, wonderful gaffe! I thought you knew something about electric cars and their history.

The first mass market hybrid launched by Toyota in 1997 was the Prius.

"The NHW11 model was introduced in the United States in 2000, and early adopters fought to get their hands on one! With notable stars like Leonard DiCaprio driving them, it’s no wonder their popularity skyrocketed."

Top Gear first tried to destroy a Toyota in 2003 and again in later episodes. By then, Toyota was well on the way to selling a million Prius cars (achieved by 2009).

As well as making indestructible trucks their hybrid's reliability was well established.

regards

Howard

Can I recommend you read : A Short History of Toyota Hybrids.

https://www.stevelanderstoyota.com/blog ... ybrids.htm

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442240

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2021, 4:48 pm

Toyota has sold 15 million hybrids:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... s-globally

Toyota sells about 10 million cars per year:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/267 ... ince-2007/

As far as I can tell Hybrids are a small part of what Toyota sells and all Toyota are noted for their reliability and longevity which is something that the premier UK marques like Merc and BMW are no longer noted for.

Nonetheless the future is BEV and I have begun to see Toyota adverts for a BEV which has a yoke for a steering device, like the Plaid.

Plug in hybrids are a terrible technology.

Regards,

onthemove
Lemon Slice
Posts: 540
Joined: June 24th, 2017, 4:03 pm
Has thanked: 722 times
Been thanked: 471 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442378

Postby onthemove » September 15th, 2021, 12:40 am

Yikes!

In the recent AI day talks, in response to a question about whether they train the FSD for country specific, Elon commented that the basics of driving are the same everywhere in the world - first and fore most, don't hit anything. OK, this isn't a hit, but the pedestrian clearly acted as though they thought it might be! The guys was already a few steps onto the crossing before the visualisation even seemed to have seen that he was there.

https://youtu.be/xbw2ZB0Lbk8?t=350

Also generally, the representation of pedestrians in the FSD 10 is alarming at the best of times. It doesn't seem to even be able to determine which direction people are facing! Which is fairly basic stuff if you want to predict their likely behaviour. I seem to recall Waymo videos from several years ago, where Waymo back then were considering the behaviour of the entities identified (in fact, here it is ... https://youtu.be/tiwVMrTLUWg?t=621 )...

But at the same time they also demonstrated how their cars were still able to suitably respond to completely novel situations as well... like this example where their cars encountered a woman going round in circles in the middle of the road on a mobility scooter chasing a duck ... https://youtu.be/tiwVMrTLUWg?t=663 .

Which is a good segway back to Tesla FSD 10...

This one I can't fathom at all... where on earth did the Tesla think it was going... irrespective whether it could read the sign or not! It wasn't recognising any obstruction on the visualisation as far as I can see...

https://youtu.be/po6nG5vY_ec?t=316

It might not be a woman on a mobility scooter going round in circles chasing a duck in the road, but surely the Tesla can see that the road is obstructed with something that it shouldn't hit?! And even if it can't read the sign, it just seems to have completely drawn a blank, and doesn't seem to have a suitable 'behaviour' for how to deal with this.

I mean, OK, it isn't going to recognise everything out there, but the Waymo team have made a point that they always categorise every pixel in every frame. Now that categorisation might be 'unknown', but they can tie the image in with the lidar to establish that it is 'something' and at the very least not to hit it, and most likely to recognise that it is probably an obstruction.

I get the impression with the Tesla videos that Tesla FSD has only really been programmed to recognise pre-determined things, and the things it can't recognise are still quite a gap - I mean, in that video above it looks like it was just going to drive straight into that tent.

It's almost as though the neural nets didn't classify it as a known 'thing' so it looks like it might have just assumed that the image of the tent was possibly just shadows or pattern on the road surface or something similar which it thought it could drive over!

And just going back to that second video, it's quite disappointing that before it takes the corner into the closed road, it's waiting for the pedestrians on the crossing... but just watch how it keeps changing its mind whether there's one or two pedestrians there! I can't find it now, but I seem to recall a video from Waymo showing how they were able to detect and track very 'stabily' each individual pedestrian in quite a crowd at a pedestrian crossing. While I couldn't find that video this time, I did come across this from Waymo... https://blog.waymo.com/2021/08/MostExpe ... river.html ... just look at the detail that the waymo system is able to 'see' in the pedestrians...

The waymo seems to be going much further than just having the AI say "pedestrian" the way Tesla seems to be doing. And I say that I think that is all Tesla seem to be doing because the Tesla half the time isn't even detecting that there's a pedestrian there (see videos above), and even when it is, it often isn't correctly even inferring which way the pedestrian is facing - and they can disappear and reappear even when the car has an unobstructed view of them. Contrast that with the details of the arms and limbs of the pedestrians detected in the waymo videos on that page.

The internal model of the world around the vehicle that the Waymo is able to fuse from the various sensors (yes, that includes lidar) just seems to be light years ahead of Tesla.

Just look at this ... https://youtu.be/xbw2ZB0Lbk8?t=300 .. the narrator of the video comments how the Telsa didn't seem phased by the motor bike... ahem, cough, what!? ... look at the visualisation.... as the Telsa starts to creep forwards, the Telsa doesn't even recognise that there's a motorcycle nor anything else there at all... that's why it's not fazed by it... it isn't actually seeing it at all! Pretty shocking! And rather disappointing that the driver seems oblivious to this and thinks the Tesla is handling it well!!

I know I've said before many times now (yawn) that I'm not convinced Tesla's architecture is pitched to support the height of 'skyscraper' that they need to be building. ... but that was mainly whether they could do it without lidar, and whether the software architecture is pitched suitably (I have doubts whether it's fusing into a robust enough 'top level' planner or that sort of thing)

But the more I've seeing the Tesla struggle with stability of things around it, with the stability of the road markings, and really struggling with pedestrians... I'm just wondering whether even the cameras are adequate enough as cameras.

I know some people have made a point about the being, eight cameras! wow! But bear in mind, that isn't 8 all looking in the same direction giving redundancy. From what I saw from the AI day videos, those cameras only have partial overlaps with each other, and that number of cameras is about giving 360 degree coverage.

And did someone say each camera is only 1280x960 :o ?

It's getting late and I'll probably regret thinking through this at this time of night, but 1280 x 8 / 360 = only 28 pixels per (horizontal) degree. And that's assuming no overlap at all between cameras, but we know from the AI day talks that they need overlap to be able to identify the same item in different cameras for establishing the depth, etc.

I'm now beginning to wonder if that might be why it's really struggling to recognise how many bins and how many people there are, and why it keeps changing its mind. I just wonder if the resolution is just too low for it to make reliable inferences as to what it's seeing.

If so, then this could be yet another area where I suspect Tesla might find the existing hardware that they've been selling as 'software-only' upgradable to FSD, might fall short of achieving that end.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442381

Postby BobbyD » September 15th, 2021, 1:29 am

onthemove wrote:
I know some people have made a point about the being, eight cameras! wow! But bear in mind, that isn't 8 all looking in the same direction giving redundancy. From what I saw from the AI day videos, those cameras only have partial overlaps with each other, and that number of cameras is about giving 360 degree coverage.

And did someone say each camera is only 1280x960 :o ?


Yup, although I was wrong comparing it to my 2004 RAZR V.3, it's less than the 2MP camera in my 2006 LG Prada.

On the camera front, there are four cameras facing the front that support the radar and have different characteristics. The main one, covers 250 meters but with a very narrow-angle of view, and there are others that cover shorter distances (150-, 80- and 60 meters) but with a wide-angle view of the environment around the car and are those used to read the road signs. The other four cameras face the sides and rear of the car and can see up to 100 meters away.

Image

...For forward vision, Tesla has developed a tri-camera module with three On Semiconductor image sensors. Model 3 also uses two forward-looking side cameras, two rear-peering side cameras and a rear-view camera.

Eight cameras in total designed into Model 3 are based on the same 1.2 Megapixel image sensors released by On Semiconductor in 2015. “They are low cost. They are neither new nor high resolution,” observed Fraux.



https://www.eetasia.com/teslas-hardware ... r-model-3/

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442414

Postby odysseus2000 » September 15th, 2021, 10:08 am

Hi onthemove,

You are putting out some of the best coverage of auto pilot on the net, thank you for sharing.

OK, this isn't a hit, but the pedestrian clearly acted as though they thought it might be! The guys was already a few steps onto the crossing before the visualisation even seemed to have seen that he was there.

https://youtu.be/xbw2ZB0Lbk8?t=350


My impression here is that the guy did pause a little before getting on the crossing and starting to go and that is what troubled auto pilot, but it did avoid a collision so similar to how a human may have behaved.

This one I can't fathom at all... where on earth did the Tesla think it was going... irrespective whether it could read the sign or not! It wasn't recognising any obstruction on the visualisation as far as I can see...

https://youtu.be/po6nG5vY_ec?t=316

It might not be a woman on a mobility scooter going round in circles chasing a duck in the road, but surely the Tesla can see that the road is obstructed with something that it shouldn't hit?! And even if it can't read the sign, it just seems to have completely drawn a blank, and doesn't seem to have a suitable 'behaviour' for how to deal with this.

I mean, OK, it isn't going to recognise everything out there, but the Waymo team have made a point that they always categorise every pixel in every frame. Now that categorisation might be 'unknown', but they can tie the image in with the lidar to establish that it is 'something' and at the very least not to hit it, and most likely to recognise that it is probably an obstruction.


Yes, this is a very serious failure, possibly assuming it was shadows as you suggest. I have no idea what happened here as there are now so many of these types of tents due to Covid that surely it ought to have recognised it.

And did someone say each camera is only 1280x960 :o ?

It's getting late and I'll probably regret thinking through this at this time of night, but 1280 x 8 / 360 = only 28 pixels per (horizontal) degree. And that's assuming no overlap at all between cameras, but we know from the AI day talks that they need overlap to be able to identify the same item in different cameras for establishing the depth, etc.


I think the rational here is that anything that subtends an angle of 1 degree is small, suggesting some ways away and that it does not need to worry about such things where as stuff that is important will be closer and be more than 1 degree. How it would handle a very fast motor cycle as it was turning say right at a T-junction with the bike coming from the left I don't know as that could be a small angle, but it would be moving fast so that might trigger the system. We are dealing with cameras operating at I believe 30 frames per second so that each horizontal 8 pixels per degree are refreshed at this rate. Adding higher resolution would give better images but a lot more data to handle and the 28 pixels may be a compromise between getting a good enough image and an acceptable data load to process.

My general impression is that v10 is the best self driving system that Tesla has put out and it will be interesting to see if Tesla do provide the button to other FSD owners to let them try it as was suggested by Tesla or do they delay this until they get more data. According to Rob Maurer, who presents Tesla Daily on youtube, he was told not to report incidents to Tesla as was, as far as I understand, standard practice before v10. Perhaps there are now enough disengagements for Tesla to work with, without needing users to flag troubles.

If the criteria is would I be happy today to be driven in a Tesla without a driver then the answer is NO. Whether that will change in the very near term I have my doubts, but exponential improvement is possible (very probable) with AI systems although there seem to be too many areas where the system makes mistakes that a human wouldn't, although it has the advantages that it is not distracted as humans often are.

One thing to bear in mind is how humans learn to do things. At an early stage as folk are introduced to new things they struggle but with more experence things they had huge difficulty with such as spelling, signing ones name etc become muscle memory type things that they do without obvious conscious thought. As a human develops he/she advances by getting feedback. Before I taught myself to touch type I found the whole thing incredibly difficult but by repeating various exercises what was impossible for me became trivially easy, no need to look at keys, just knowing where they are without any conscious thought. Tesla autopilot looks to be having such transition troubles, but it is learning every drive and that learning is passed out in the next version of auto pilot. Will that learning ever get to be super human? I often get discouraged watching failures, but the software is getting better and the direction of human endeavours has been relentless increasing capability so I am still minded to think FSD can be done and that we are months away rather that decades. What would be needed to convince me it can't be done with what Tesla have? I would need to see the system plateau, incapable of getting better and Tesla announcing some new retro fit hardware etc.

Regards,

murraypaul
Lemon Slice
Posts: 785
Joined: April 9th, 2021, 5:54 pm
Has thanked: 225 times
Been thanked: 265 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442420

Postby murraypaul » September 15th, 2021, 10:28 am

odysseus2000 wrote:I think the rational here is that anything that subtends an angle of 1 degree is small, suggesting some ways away and that it does not need to worry about such things where as stuff that is important will be closer and be more than 1 degree.


That seems like a dangerous assumption.
At 20 meters away (less than 5 car lengths), an angle of 1 degree covers 34cm, or a foot.
So basically a smallish person.
Any human driver should be aware of a pedestrian less than 5 car lengths ahead of them.

It still feels like we are a very long way from level 5 (full) self driving.
As it, I'm not sure I see the incremental path from where we are now to where we need to get, it might require something totally different.
We are years in to Tesla's FSD, and it still can't navigate a world with no humans in it. Adding humans into the mix makes the problem exponentially harder.
The idea is great, it will be fantastic for the world when it works, but at the moment ... it just doesn't, not even close.
Last edited by murraypaul on September 15th, 2021, 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2192
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 886 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442421

Postby Howard » September 15th, 2021, 10:33 am

onthemove wrote:Yikes!

In the recent AI day talks, in response to a question about whether they train the FSD for country specific, Elon commented that the basics of driving are the same everywhere in the world - first and fore most, don't hit anything. OK, this isn't a hit, but the pedestrian clearly acted as though they thought it might be! The guys was already a few steps onto the crossing before the visualisation even seemed to have seen that he was there.

https://youtu.be/xbw2ZB0Lbk8?t=350

Also generally, the representation of pedestrians in the FSD 10 is alarming at the best of times. It doesn't seem to even be able to determine which direction people are facing! Which is fairly basic stuff if you want to predict their likely behaviour. I seem to recall Waymo videos from several years ago, where Waymo back then were considering the behaviour of the entities identified (in fact, here it is ... https://youtu.be/tiwVMrTLUWg?t=621 )...



Your example above is very similar to the practical experience which I posted above, see viewtopic.php?p=441600#p441600.

Driving in a city at slow speeds a street-smart pedestrian will, in my experience, make a split second decision about you as a driver. And in the case which I wrote about above, the guy literally caught my eye before crossing in front of me and expecting me to slow down. Whilst it was a nice car to drive, the cameras and system in the 2021 Tesla I drove didn't appear to be sensitive enough to anticipate such a situation.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442431

Postby odysseus2000 » September 15th, 2021, 11:02 am

murraypaul
That seems like a dangerous assumption.
At 20 meters away (less than 5 car lengths), an angle of 1 degree covers 34cm, or a foot.
So basically a smallish person.
Any human driver should be aware of a pedestrian less than 5 car lengths ahead of them.


Good point.

One does have y as well, although of less resolution, for say a child of approx 1 m high (say approx 3 x width) that would be 3x1x(960/1280) = 2.25 degrees. One also has the 30 frames per second to look for movement.

Not great for small dogs!

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442434

Postby BobbyD » September 15th, 2021, 11:18 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul
That seems like a dangerous assumption.
At 20 meters away (less than 5 car lengths), an angle of 1 degree covers 34cm, or a foot.
So basically a smallish person.
Any human driver should be aware of a pedestrian less than 5 car lengths ahead of them.


Good point.

One does have y as well, although of less resolution, for say a child of approx 1 m high (say approx 3 x width) that would be 3x1x(960/1280) = 2.25 degrees. One also has the 30 frames per second to look for movement.

Not great for small dogs!

Regards,


...or ducks being chased by women in wheel chairs.

Not sure what resolution they are using, but the Waymo vehicle has 29 cameras, some of which are capable of reading a road sign at 500m. They aren't just playing in different leagues, they are playing completely different sports.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6431
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1561 times
Been thanked: 973 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442436

Postby odysseus2000 » September 15th, 2021, 11:24 am

Howard
Your example above is very similar to the practical experience which I posted above, see viewtopic.php?p=441600#p441600.

Driving in a city at slow speeds a street-smart pedestrian will, in my experience, make a split second decision about you as a driver. And in the case which I wrote about above, the guy literally caught my eye before crossing in front of me and expecting me to slow down. Whilst it was a nice car to drive, the cameras and system in the 2021 Tesla I drove didn't appear to be sensitive enough to anticipate such a situation.

regards

Howard


If this FSD takes off I believe people will become very wary of assuming anything about it being like a human and having human intuition for nods and winks etc.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#442655

Postby BobbyD » September 15th, 2021, 11:19 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Information>no information>FUD.


Try this ..... https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/so-wande ... ert-diess/

(as prompted https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/ ... 4775645188)

Apparently a VW supervisory board meeting due !

regards, dspp


Diess is campaigning for a contract extension, 2 years before it would normally come up to give him a continuing mandate for his transformation of VW.


Can't believe I missed this!

VW Group CEO Diess gets contract extension ahead of strategy presentation

Executive is overseeing the most aggressive push into electric vehicles by an established automaker

FRANKFURT -- Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess received a contract extension -- giving fresh backing to the boss overseeing the most aggressive push into electric vehicles by an established automaker.

Diess will remain in his post until October 2025, his 67th birthday, VW said in a statement on Friday.


- https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... esentation

Huzzah!


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests