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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#449100

Postby odysseus2000 » October 10th, 2021, 1:40 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:FSD coming soon:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-se ... y-streets/

Regards,


Ody

Are you recycling five year old posts? ;)

regards

Howard


Ha Ha, no this is the rollout as of now, albeit with some more short delays:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/144 ... 08032?s=20

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449104

Postby TUK020 » October 10th, 2021, 2:07 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:With casting construction this is sort of calculation is almost certainly going to increase leading to yet larger insurance premiums. However, there is some potential relief in that Chinese BEV are extremely low cost with popular models costing £5k brand new. Whether these will catch on with western consumers I do not know, but for someone who has little money but needs a car they may become popular, assuming they can get past the various crash tests and such that all makers must have their cars subjected to. As far as I understand it, many of the Chinese models will pass the western safety tests, but for now I don't know of any that are being imported in to Europe or the US, but I expect the GM part owned marque to begin imports sometime in the next year. A £5k car that one can charge for very little (no extra cost about 10 months of the year if you have home solar) making it extremely environmentally friendly may become the car of choice for folk who support Insulate Britain and/or have similar environmental concerns.

Given the recent fuel shortages electric must also be more on folks minds as a way to avoid repeats of the ugly fuel scenes at many petrol stations over the last few weeks. This may also favour the low cost Chinese BEV. Tesla are apparently considering advertising their solar and power walls to emphasise the advantages of becoming ones own utility which would also help BEV sales.


The Citroen Ami is apparently taking Paris by storm:
https://www.citroen.co.uk/models/future-models/ami.html

70km range, 45km max speed, 3 hrs to charge from a mains plug in charger. under £6k. In France can be driven by a 14 year old without a driving license as a quadricycle. Can be parked sideways in a parking space.

Would be a serious consideration in places like London when it gets launched in the spring

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#449118

Postby odysseus2000 » October 10th, 2021, 2:58 pm

TUK020 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:With casting construction this is sort of calculation is almost certainly going to increase leading to yet larger insurance premiums. However, there is some potential relief in that Chinese BEV are extremely low cost with popular models costing £5k brand new. Whether these will catch on with western consumers I do not know, but for someone who has little money but needs a car they may become popular, assuming they can get past the various crash tests and such that all makers must have their cars subjected to. As far as I understand it, many of the Chinese models will pass the western safety tests, but for now I don't know of any that are being imported in to Europe or the US, but I expect the GM part owned marque to begin imports sometime in the next year. A £5k car that one can charge for very little (no extra cost about 10 months of the year if you have home solar) making it extremely environmentally friendly may become the car of choice for folk who support Insulate Britain and/or have similar environmental concerns.

Given the recent fuel shortages electric must also be more on folks minds as a way to avoid repeats of the ugly fuel scenes at many petrol stations over the last few weeks. This may also favour the low cost Chinese BEV. Tesla are apparently considering advertising their solar and power walls to emphasise the advantages of becoming ones own utility which would also help BEV sales.


The Citroen Ami is apparently taking Paris by storm:
https://www.citroen.co.uk/models/future-models/ami.html

70km range, 45km max speed, 3 hrs to charge from a mains plug in charger. under £6k. In France can be driven by a 14 year old without a driving license as a quadricycle. Can be parked sideways in a parking space.

Would be a serious consideration in places like London when it gets launched in the spring


Yes, I agree that for many urban markets this kind of technology is very apt. If one goes back to the early data of uk motoring, the mass market cars were all small & light with few luxuries, minimal collision protection & yet they revolutionised people's lives.

Where I think they will struggle is for people who drive longer distances, need to move big things & have large families & are concerned about safety.

The are loads of similar concept cars in China.

We certainly live in interesting times & it may be that one has one of these kinds of cars & hires something bigger as needed or robo taxis work & many decide they don't need a car.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449540

Postby odysseus2000 » October 12th, 2021, 2:49 pm

Interesting sales numbers from China:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3751574-t ... News+Smart

Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM) reporting a 36% sales decline, Honda (NYSE:HMC) reporting a 28% drop and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) saying sales were off 26%. Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) also saw big drops through its two joint ventures (-48% and -23%)


By contrast:

(NASDAQ:TSLA), which sold 56K China-made vehicles in September vs. 44K in August.


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Re: Musk endeavours

#449584

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 5:06 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting sales numbers from China:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3751574-t ... News+Smart

Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM) reporting a 36% sales decline, Honda (NYSE:HMC) reporting a 28% drop and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) saying sales were off 26%. Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) also saw big drops through its two joint ventures (-48% and -23%)


By contrast:

(NASDAQ:TSLA), which sold 56K China-made vehicles in September vs. 44K in August.


Regards,


Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449588

Postby odysseus2000 » October 12th, 2021, 5:10 pm

BobbyD
Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.


What is a MIC Teska?

Are you also disputing the reported sales declines for legacy auto?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449592

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 5:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.


What is a MIC Teska?

Are you also disputing the reported sales declines for legacy auto?

Regards,


The vast majority of made in China Teslas were exported not sold in China.

Haven't read the piece, just pointing out the error in your comparison which is so blatant it is patently obvious without wasting time on it.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449597

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 5:35 pm

VW starts selling electric lorries in the USA:

https://news.navistar.com/2021-08-31-Na ... e-to-Order

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449687

Postby odysseus2000 » October 12th, 2021, 10:01 pm

Tesla crash lab (4 mins 28 seconds) :

https://youtu.be/9KR2N_Q8ep8

Shows how Tesla use crash data from their fleet of around 1 million cars to determine most probable crashes and then test and use the test data to improve the cars resistance to impacts via over the air updates.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449690

Postby BobbyD » October 12th, 2021, 10:04 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla crash lab (4 mins 28 seconds) :

https://youtu.be/9KR2N_Q8ep8

Shows how Tesla use crash data from their fleet of around 1 million cars to determine most probable crashes and then test and use the test data to improve the cars resistance to impacts via over the air updates.

Regards,



ID.6 crushes model Y

https://insideevs.com/news/539857/tesla ... id6-crash/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449719

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:32 am

BobbyD

ID.6 crushes model Y

https://insideevs.com/news/539857/tesla ... id6-crash/


Looks to me that occupants in both cars would have been uninjured.

Depends which variants collided, but potentially id6 is 611 lbs (13.8%) heavier:

ID6:

https://www.google.com/search?q=weight+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Model Y:

https://www.google.com/search?q=weight+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

If the ID6 is 611 lbs heavier, the model Y did very well as the rate of change of momentum (i.e. Force) is 13.8 % more than the ID6 experiences.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#449720

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:36 am

Munroe test drives the Hyundai Kona (14 mins 31seconds):

https://youtu.be/DRGwGTvNdlU

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#449721

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 12:44 am

A waymo ride:

https://youtu.be/Itsips5rJ3s

Make up your own mind.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449752

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 9:38 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Most of those MIC Teska sales were not sold in China. The actual figures are already posted in this thread.


What is a MIC Teska?

Are you also disputing the reported sales declines for legacy auto?

Regards,


The vast majority of made in China Teslas were exported not sold in China.

Haven't read the piece, just pointing out the error in your comparison which is so blatant it is patently obvious without wasting time on it.


No, Tesla domestic September sales in China were over 52k:

https://insideevs.com/news/540158/china ... ember2021/

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449754

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 9:43 am

Catl announce a huge $6.8 billion battery recycling factory:

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/c ... ant-report

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449804

Postby Howard » October 13th, 2021, 12:57 pm

This year looks as though it will be another brilliant year for UK car distributors’ profitability. Every major chain appears to be reporting increased profits. Second hand ICE car prices are continuing their multi-year increases.

Year to date, it’s been more profitable to hold a UK distributor share like Vertu (I hold) up around 70% rather than Tesla up around 10%.

The same appears to be true for distributors in the USA with 2020 and 2021 showing record profitability according to surveys like the one linked below.

Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.

Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.

regards

Howard
https://mercercapital.com/auto-dealer-v ... -industry/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449839

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 2:52 pm

Live feed of William Shatner going to space in a Blue Origin rocket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNI2x1NQYwM

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449842

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 13th, 2021, 3:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Live feed of William Shatner going to space in a Blue Origin rocket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNI2x1NQYwM

Regards,

Obviously a low-budget trip, no drive out to the pad in a Tesla, pfft.

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449847

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2021, 3:19 pm

Howard
Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.


BMW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 72738?s=20

VW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 99881?s=20

Tesla 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 25476?s=20

We see that BMW has been mixed, 2 months down, 2 up, but still not back to where it was mid year.

VW has had 5 straight down months.

Tesla has had 5 straight up months.

Howard:
Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.


Not as I see the price action.

We are on the cusp of a huge number of Chinese marques coming to Europe and the US. Betting on legacy surviving this tsunami of low cost BEV is for the very brave.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#449887

Postby Howard » October 13th, 2021, 5:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Whilst ICE car volumes are down, the profitability of manufacturing premium models seems to be holding up very well as they transition to BEV manufacture. For example BMW shares are up 20% and VW up 30% in 2021.


BMW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 72738?s=20

VW 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 99881?s=20

Tesla 3 year chart:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/144828 ... 25476?s=20

We see that BMW has been mixed, 2 months down, 2 up, but still not back to where it was mid year.

VW has had 5 straight down months.

Tesla has had 5 straight up months.

Howard:
Markets are looking ahead as they rate these companies and the increasing profitability may not continue but investors are certainly betting it will in the short term.


Not as I see the price action.

We are on the cusp of a huge number of Chinese marques coming to Europe and the US. Betting on legacy surviving this tsunami of low cost BEV is for the very brave.

Regards,


Like your previous forecasts about car distribution this may be brave but wrong!

In the short term new marques will need to set up distribution networks. It's unlikely that there will be huge numbers of new distributors set up to service the supply of new BEVs. Building brand share without distributors will be difficult. It's taken Tesla a long time and they have had to invest in large sales and service sites.

regards

Howard


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