GoSeigen wrote:They accept that they are relying on other price sensitive traders to ensure the index pricing is "correct". Else their claim that index investing will beat active investing would very obviously be wrong [active investors would simply take the other side of a mispriced trade].
I'm sorry, but we seem to be talking cross purposes. I bought some VWRL in my SIPP because the expectation is that the global economy will grow in the long term and take the market higher. I am relying on that, rather than traders (who are bound by the economic conditions of their day), to give me a better return over that long term than remaining in cash. I don't claim that, or even care whether, this investment will beat "active investing".
GoSeigen wrote:Yes, I think there are times that index investors will lose money due to the activity of value-conscious (active) investors. I won't go into the mechanics but it's not hard to work out.
Again, I don't see how the relatively short-term activity of active investors will prevent my investment benefiting from long-term global economic growth?
Anyway, as far as the subject in hand is concerned, as usual I think it depends on personal circumstances. FWIW, I'm happy to stay mostly invested, but have trimmed back a little on U.S./tech and, like others, have a little dry powder should the opportunity arise. My view is to always position yourself in a way that makes you comfortable, but try not to trade any more than is necessary to achieve that comfort.