TUK020 wrote:When do you think this technology will actually get into cars on the market? And is it the lead technology? or will something like LFP get cycles of learning established before it arrives?
I'm not a battery expert, and as I tried to argue in the Musk thread I think it is dangerous to assume we know much of anything about what is out there. This makes designating a leader quite difficult...
There are a number of things I like about QS's project (The market doesn't currently agree).
QS's product is a separator, which prevents the growth of lithium dendrites across the cell, and so prevents them shorting out the battery. This allows you to build lithium metal batteries which don't catch fire, whereas before you had to build lithium ion batteries.
The difference looks like this:Figure 2 here:
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2020/ph240/kim1/Can't post because of image height restriction.
Because it is 'just' a separator it can be used with a wide range of chemistries, so it isn't a matter of LFP or Lithium metal batteries, you can use the QS separator to improve LFP batteries in the same way you can use it to improve other chemistries.
Lithium Iron Phosphate on the QuantumScape Solid-State Lithium-Metal Platform
...We are currently partnering with world-class suppliers of LFP cathode material and plan to offer both NMC- and LFP-based cathodes to our automotive OEM partners. Our OEMs can choose the cathode type best suited for each of their models while enjoying improved energy density, charge times, and economics over conventional graphite- or silicon-based anodes.
Our goal is to bring to market a solid-state lithium-metal battery platform that, when matched with the right cathode, can serve a diverse variety of applications, from the high-end to the everyday. Electrifying the 95% of the automotive market that has yet to adopt EVs requires improvements to both performance and cost. Our platform offers the rare opportunity to do both, simultaneously.
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https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/ ... -platform/As to how long... Any answer is a guess.
They've been working with VW for around a decade, VW have tested their products, had access to all their data, deemed them interesting and bought a significant stake in the company*. So whilst we can't see a lot, an experienced engineering firm with one of the biggest R&D budgets on the planet has, and liked what they saw. This gives me some confidence that there is something there which actually has a good chance of making it to market. It's no guarantee, and it won't be the only development if it does, I don't subscribe to the one winner theory, especially since their product is (assuming it can be commercialised) so versatile.
QS has secured more space in San Jose with an eye to production, and their JV with VW is probably going to settle on Salzgitter which is turning in to the hub of VW's battery division. I don't expect to see anything on the market tomorrow, I'd hope they'd have an established presence in 5 years time. So somewhere between those 2 dates...
* Worth noting VW paid a rounding error on their annual profits for it, however QS are firmly entrenched in their plans for electrification.