Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

RPI to 6% !

including Budgets
pje16
Lemon Half
Posts: 6050
Joined: May 30th, 2021, 6:01 pm
Has thanked: 1843 times
Been thanked: 2066 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#500023

Postby pje16 » May 12th, 2022, 10:07 am

AF62 wrote:But I meant 'faceless' as in being one of hundreds of 'drones' working for a large corporation where you could merge into the scenery if you wanted to

I thought that was for call centre workers (no offense if anyone is one)

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3608
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 551 times
Been thanked: 1587 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#500084

Postby gryffron » May 12th, 2022, 2:05 pm

AF62 wrote:I was stood outside a regional development office that had a signboard outside advertising local jobs, and every job whether it was a shop assistant, receptionist, bar staff, waiters, cleaners, and even more responsible and skilled jobs such as fast food chefs, was being advertised at the minimum wage or only a few pence over it. The only higher paid jobs were sales jobs with commission such as sales staff in kitchen showrooms.

Govt Agencies such as this always send the worst applicants, so only attract the worst employers/jobs. T'was always thus. I was a boss then employer in my own right for 20 years, and I NEVER advertised a job at a Job Centre. Yes, advertising there is free. But the people they sent were invariably time wasters - worse than useless. Decent jobs are advertised by private recruitment agencies. Of which, btw, there are now 14 in my rural county town.

Gryff

Hallucigenia
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2620
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 3:03 am
Has thanked: 166 times
Been thanked: 1718 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#500097

Postby Hallucigenia » May 12th, 2022, 3:05 pm

BT63 wrote:Mostly garden and a few home items. The sort of things you might find in large garden centres ...

Earlier he gave a more exact figure and said the first half of April sales are down 67% compared to previous years.


This kind of anecdote is always interesting for giving colour, but a few thoughts on it :

I understand that the core business of garden centres is insanely seasonal - four weekends in April to the May Bank Holiday make up some crazy percentage of the annual takings, it was discussed a fair bit in the context of allowing garden centres to be exempt from first lockdown. And online garden stores will be looking at LFLs against two years of business that were boosted by people "nesting" during lockdowns.

However this year the unusually mild weather will have pushed a fair bit of garden activity in particular "hard" landscaping etc forward into February/March - I had my veg garden all prepped by the end of March which Never Happens. So I suspect some of the normal April business moved into March. Whereas plant-related purchases still need to wait until mid-late April.

Also Easter wasn't in the first half of April this year, whereas it was in the last two years so the LFLs may not be terribly fair.

Just looking at the top line of the business that I'm involved with that's most weather/season dependent, January was slightly ahead of the long-term average to 2019 (LFLs through 20/21 are just too messed up to be meaningful), February and April were both weak (down, at the limits of normal fluctuations but still within it) but March was an absolute monster of a month. We felt that there was definitely a combination of weather and a general will to "get back to normal" behind the March numbers, but April should have been a bit better given the weather. People seeing their new utility bills and going "we need to cut back a bit elsewhere" may well have been a factor.

As an aside - in the US, used car prices have been a significant part of the rise in inflation, but they're down 6.4% since January (but still +14% yoy) so there's some hope there that one element of inflation is being suppressed :
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/06/used-ca ... ation.html
Image

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#500140

Postby Dod101 » May 12th, 2022, 7:28 pm

AF62 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:A lot of people seem to have no concern about the cost of living at the moment or it would seem the future.


Why would the cost of living increases concern a lot of people?

Sure the rises in prices of food and energy will be terrifying to a sizeable group of people on very low incomes or relying on state benefits, and will be concerning to a larger group of people on low to middling incomes, but to a vast number of people those increases will be annoying rather than life changing.

That is about the most pompous lot of words that I have read for a long while. To 'a vast number of people, those increases will be annoying'?' They will probably not be life changing for me but they will, if they come to pass, be more than annoying. I can afford the extra costs, but I would much rather not bear them, instead of which, I may cut back on giving money to people who really need it.

Doid

AF62
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3499
Joined: November 27th, 2016, 8:45 am
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 1277 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#500151

Postby AF62 » May 12th, 2022, 8:47 pm

Dod101 wrote:
AF62 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:A lot of people seem to have no concern about the cost of living at the moment or it would seem the future.


Why would the cost of living increases concern a lot of people?

Sure the rises in prices of food and energy will be terrifying to a sizeable group of people on very low incomes or relying on state benefits, and will be concerning to a larger group of people on low to middling incomes, but to a vast number of people those increases will be annoying rather than life changing.


That is about the most pompous lot of words that I have read for a long while. To 'a vast number of people, those increases will be annoying'?' They will probably not be life changing for me but they will, if they come to pass, be more than annoying. I can afford the extra costs, but I would much rather not bear them, instead of which, I may cut back on giving money to people who really need it.

Doid


Pompous? Seems to be quite accurate from your comments.

stevensfo
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3438
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 8:43 am
Has thanked: 3810 times
Been thanked: 1398 times

Re: RPI to 11% !

#501160

Postby stevensfo » May 18th, 2022, 8:49 am

Latest figures released today:

RPI 11.1%

CPI 9.0%


https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices


Steve

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4817
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 606 times
Been thanked: 2676 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#501215

Postby scrumpyjack » May 18th, 2022, 11:14 am

Well look on the bright side -it is devaluing our eye watering national debt quite rapidly and fiscal drag will greatly help tax revenues. :D

stevensfo
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3438
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 8:43 am
Has thanked: 3810 times
Been thanked: 1398 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#501257

Postby stevensfo » May 18th, 2022, 12:58 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Well look on the bright side -it is devaluing our eye watering national debt quite rapidly and fiscal drag will greatly help tax revenues. :D


Please don't say 'our eye watering debt'. Nowt to do with me. It may be someone's eye watering debt, certainly not mine.

My mum's village has cut everything to the point where they won't even clean the drains to stop half the bloody roads flooding after a rainstorm and wheelie bins are only removed when more than two inhabitants have died from dysentery and the contents of the bins evolve into a new life form.

But the council taxes ARE eye watering!

Goodness knows what they're spending the money on!

Sure there's a Doctor Who episode in there somewhere. 8-)


Steve

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 673 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508772

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » June 22nd, 2022, 7:44 am

CPI 9.1%
RPI 11.7%

The highest in my lifetime by far.

Best wishes


Mark

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508775

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2022, 7:53 am

stevensfo wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:Well look on the bright side -it is devaluing our eye watering national debt quite rapidly and fiscal drag will greatly help tax revenues. :D


Please don't say 'our eye watering debt'. Nowt to do with me. It may be someone's eye watering debt, certainly not mine.

My mum's village has cut everything to the point where they won't even clean the drains to stop half the bloody roads flooding after a rainstorm and wheelie bins are only removed when more than two inhabitants have died from dysentery and the contents of the bins evolve into a new life form.

But the council taxes ARE eye watering!

Goodness knows what they're spending the money on!

Sure there's a Doctor Who episode in there somewhere. 8-)


Steve


If you are a UK citizen, you are I am afraid, part of the 'our' as used in 'our national debt'. As you (and all of us) are discovering it is 'our' national debt. and the effects of it will be with us for some time.

Dod

Nimrod103
Lemon Half
Posts: 6478
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 939 times
Been thanked: 2262 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508779

Postby Nimrod103 » June 22nd, 2022, 8:25 am

stevensfo wrote:But the council taxes ARE eye watering!

Goodness knows what they're spending the money on!

Steve


The simple answer is that most council tax gets spent on other people's salaries. of which the salaries of council employees and their pensions must figure large.

However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care:

(https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... WEoYtowL4I)

Social care would seem to be the elephant in the room, and I am sure the Govt would be very keen to recieve suggestions of how that figure might be cut.

PS CPI now 9.1%, RPI 11.7%

77ss
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1271
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:42 am
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 414 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508783

Postby 77ss » June 22nd, 2022, 8:49 am

Nimrod103 wrote:.....

However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care...


A bit misleading that perhaps - the figure given in your link excludes spending on police and fire services - which certainly form part of my council tax bill.

RockRabbit
Lemon Slice
Posts: 405
Joined: December 31st, 2019, 9:10 am
Has thanked: 1275 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508786

Postby RockRabbit » June 22nd, 2022, 9:11 am

Nimrod103 wrote:However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care:

Social care would seem to be the elephant in the room, and I am sure the Govt would be very keen to recieve suggestions of how that figure might be cut.

Well, Boris claimed that his Health & Social Care levy would solve the funding for this. It won't, but Boris is allowed to lie cause he's Boris.

The reality is that a chronic shortage of staff, inflation, the rise in the minimum wage and an ageing population mean that expenditure on social care is likely to increase in real terms over the coming years (and probably 12% plus in nominal terms over 2022 due to high inflation etc).

Solutions? Reduce the client/staff ratio (ie reduce quality of care), reduce demand (let the elderly rot/die at home), increase labour supply (only possible through immigration which isn't attractive (or in many cases possible) due to visa and Brexit red tape/restrictions. All this has an additional knock-on effect on the NHS which can't free up beds due to there being no social care places for many elderly patients.

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508787

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2022, 9:19 am

RockRabbit wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care:

Social care would seem to be the elephant in the room, and I am sure the Govt would be very keen to recieve suggestions of how that figure might be cut.

Well, Boris claimed that his Health & Social Care levy would solve the funding for this. It won't, but Boris is allowed to lie cause he's Boris.

The reality is that a chronic shortage of staff, inflation, the rise in the minimum wage and an ageing population mean that expenditure on social care is likely to increase in real terms over the coming years (and probably 12% plus in nominal terms over 2022 due to high inflation etc).

Solutions? Reduce the client/staff ratio (ie reduce quality of care), reduce demand (let the elderly rot/die at home), increase labour supply (only possible through immigration which isn't attractive (or in many cases possible) due to visa and Brexit red tape/restrictions. All this has an additional knock-on effect on the NHS which can't free up beds due to there being no social care places for many elderly patients.


Could also of course encourage more to plan ahead to cover at least some of the costs in looking after family members. Automatically looking to the State/Councils to do everything is simply nonsensical if we are not prepared to pay the taxes. I am sure that many could more efficiently provide the care themselves. Subcontracting to the Council the bits of life we don't like is unsustainable long term, as we are discovering.

Dod

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508794

Postby tjh290633 » June 22nd, 2022, 10:20 am

Interesting to note that the Average Total Pay Index (K54U) has fallen by -1.77% between March and April, from 196.2 to 192.7. See earn01jun2022.xls, downloadable from the ONS web site at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ingsearn01 - and note that there are some changes to earlier months if you look at previous versions.

April is, of course, the yardstick for the Triple Lock, and this reduced the annual increase from 8.32% in March to 5.54%. Is this a coincidence?

TJH

Nimrod103
Lemon Half
Posts: 6478
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 939 times
Been thanked: 2262 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508800

Postby Nimrod103 » June 22nd, 2022, 10:50 am

77ss wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:.....

However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care...


A bit misleading that perhaps - the figure given in your link excludes spending on police and fire services - which certainly form part of my council tax bill.


Indeed you are right, but I could not quickly locate the complete figures anywhere.

What I was really trying to say (but didn't), is that wages and pension contributions make up by far the largest component of council tax. So the only way of keeping council tax down is to restrain wages below the inflation rate, and/or reduce the head count and range of services councils currently provide.

My personal take on numbers of people employed by the state is that it is far too high, with the exception of the armed forces, police and border force. Government (local and national) should be cutting back on its non-useful activities, so that workers can be reallocated to something more productive. But one of the biggest issues is care (for the elderly poor and children, even though child mistreatment cases seem to be far too common).

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18684
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6564 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508804

Postby Lootman » June 22nd, 2022, 11:30 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
stevensfo wrote:But the council taxes ARE eye watering!

Goodness knows what they're spending the money on!

The simple answer is that most council tax gets spent on other people's salaries. of which the salaries of council employees and their pensions must figure large.

However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care:

(https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... WEoYtowL4I)

Social care would seem to be the elephant in the room, and I am sure the Govt would be very keen to receive suggestions of how that figure might be cut.

Salaries are high when you consider that public sector employees are not particularly efficient. And of course the generosity of their pensions is legendary.

My LA still has a department of diversity, inclusion and equity, with a manager, staff of four and a seven-figure budget. I'd start by axing that.

Nimrod103 wrote:wages and pension contributions make up by far the largest component of council tax. So the only way of keeping council tax down is to restrain wages below the inflation rate, and/or reduce the head count and range of services councils currently provide.

My personal take on numbers of people employed by the state is that it is far too high, with the exception of the armed forces, police and border force. Government (local and national) should be cutting back on its non-useful activities, so that workers can be reallocated to something more productive. But one of the biggest issues is care (for the elderly poor and children, even though child mistreatment cases seem to be far too common).

The even more basic problem is that government, both local and central, still does far too much. There are all kinds of things that do not require a government employee to do, and yet we find they do. Four decades of privatisation still has not eroded some of the bastions of public sector employment. And of course their unions who, let's never forget, are the primary funders of the Labour Party.

The critical functions of government are as you state - foreign policy, defence and law enforcement. Everything else potentially could be done by the private sector, with regulations as needed.

RockRabbit
Lemon Slice
Posts: 405
Joined: December 31st, 2019, 9:10 am
Has thanked: 1275 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508819

Postby RockRabbit » June 22nd, 2022, 1:05 pm

Dod101 wrote:
RockRabbit wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:However, a more interesting answer is that 57% of council tax (on average) gets swallowed up in social care:

Social care would seem to be the elephant in the room, and I am sure the Govt would be very keen to recieve suggestions of how that figure might be cut.

Well, Boris claimed that his Health & Social Care levy would solve the funding for this. It won't, but Boris is allowed to lie cause he's Boris.

The reality is that a chronic shortage of staff, inflation, the rise in the minimum wage and an ageing population mean that expenditure on social care is likely to increase in real terms over the coming years (and probably 12% plus in nominal terms over 2022 due to high inflation etc).

Solutions? Reduce the client/staff ratio (ie reduce quality of care), reduce demand (let the elderly rot/die at home), increase labour supply (only possible through immigration which isn't attractive (or in many cases possible) due to visa and Brexit red tape/restrictions. All this has an additional knock-on effect on the NHS which can't free up beds due to there being no social care places for many elderly patients.


Could also of course encourage more to plan ahead to cover at least some of the costs in looking after family members. Automatically looking to the State/Councils to do everything is simply nonsensical if we are not prepared to pay the taxes. I am sure that many could more efficiently provide the care themselves. Subcontracting to the Council the bits of life we don't like is unsustainable long term, as we are discovering.

Dod

Government policy, as set out in the Health & Social Care levy, is designed to limit individual contributions to personal care to reduce the risk of individuals having to sell their homes to pay for care. This puts additional pressure on council spending. People aren't prepared to pay tax to fund social care nor lose their inheritance to pay for their parent's care. Everyone expects someone else to pay for it!

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508826

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2022, 1:31 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Interesting to note that the Average Total Pay Index (K54U) has fallen by -1.77% between March and April, from 196.2 to 192.7. See earn01jun2022.xls, downloadable from the ONS web site at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ingsearn01 - and note that there are some changes to earlier months if you look at previous versions.

April is, of course, the yardstick for the Triple Lock, and this reduced the annual increase from 8.32% in March to 5.54%. Is this a coincidence?

TJH


The Times this morning has an item on this. The month for measuring the rise is actually September and the indexed part of the measure is the CPI for that month. September 2022 is likely to see a CPI of at least 10%, and thus it is likely that State Pensions will rise by at least this amount in April 2023.
Depends of course on what happens to wages in the meantime, but the assumption seems to be that the CPI will be the highest of the three measures used.

It seems therefore that your conspiracy theory does not hold water.

Dod

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18684
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6564 times

Re: RPI to 6% !

#508835

Postby Lootman » June 22nd, 2022, 2:02 pm

Dod101 wrote:The month for measuring the rise is actually September and the indexed part of the measure is the CPI for that month. September 2022 is likely to see a CPI of at least 10%, and thus it is likely that State Pensions will rise by at least this amount in April 2023.
Depends of course on what happens to wages in the meantime, but the assumption seems to be that the CPI will be the highest of the three measures used.

That would be nice but of course the government could again pull the plug on the triple lock, if it is expensive.

So we have a guarantee that pensions will rise with inflation but only if inflation is low. When we actually need that protection, it vanishes!


Return to “The Economy”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests