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Crypto crash?

How to buy, profit and invest in crypto currencies or NFTs
Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508312

Postby Urbandreamer » June 19th, 2022, 4:51 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

H


So do you advocate anarchy?

BoE


I suggest that a bit of research might be in order.

Try this link.
https://world.hey.com/dhh/i-was-wrong-w ... o-587ccb03
I was wrong, we need crypto: by D Hansson
This is crazy. Absolutely bonkers. Terrifying.

I still can't believe that this is the protest that would prove every Bitcoin crank a prophet. And for me to have to slice a piece of humble pie, and admit that I was wrong on crypto's fundamental necessity in Western democracies.

And that it was the Canadians who brought this on? You might as well have told me that it was really the Care Bears who ran Abu Ghraib.

GoSeigen
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508316

Postby GoSeigen » June 19th, 2022, 5:26 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote: Money printing does not increase the total value of a country, it simply reduces the value of each unit of currency.


Let me fix that: Money printing does not increase the total value of a country, it simply reduces the value of each unit of currency all else being equal (which it seldom is).

GS

scrumpyjack
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508318

Postby scrumpyjack » June 19th, 2022, 5:32 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

H


So do you advocate anarchy?

BoE


Governments are not going to let that happen and in 10 or twenty years, when we've run out of 'greater fools', we will look back on it as just a modern update on tulip mania :D

CliffEdge
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508319

Postby CliffEdge » June 19th, 2022, 5:32 pm

Urbandreamer wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

H


So do you advocate anarchy?

BoE


I suggest that a bit of research might be in order.

Try this link.
https://world.hey.com/dhh/i-was-wrong-w ... o-587ccb03
I was wrong, we need crypto: by D Hansson
This is crazy. Absolutely bonkers. Terrifying.

I still can't believe that this is the protest that would prove every Bitcoin crank a prophet. And for me to have to slice a piece of humble pie, and admit that I was wrong on crypto's fundamental necessity in Western democracies.

And that it was the Canadians who brought this on? You might as well have told me that it was really the Care Bears who ran Abu Ghraib.

I don't understand how Bitcoin helped the truckers?

Hornblower
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508320

Postby Hornblower » June 19th, 2022, 5:35 pm

CliffEdge wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

H


So do you advocate anarchy?

BoE


I suggest that a bit of research might be in order.

Try this link.
https://world.hey.com/dhh/i-was-wrong-w ... o-587ccb03
I was wrong, we need crypto: by D Hansson
This is crazy. Absolutely bonkers. Terrifying.

I still can't believe that this is the protest that would prove every Bitcoin crank a prophet. And for me to have to slice a piece of humble pie, and admit that I was wrong on crypto's fundamental necessity in Western democracies.

And that it was the Canadians who brought this on? You might as well have told me that it was really the Care Bears who ran Abu Ghraib.

I don't understand how Bitcoin helped the truckers?



Bitcoin allowed the truckers to still receive funding after the Can government shut down their bank accounts for being 'domestic extremists'.

GoSeigen
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508323

Postby GoSeigen » June 19th, 2022, 5:45 pm

Hornblower wrote:Of course you could argue that the miners are simply speculating that the price will rise in the future because others will buy bitcoin, so it's worth the work involved....but at least there's a link with real world work. Unlike fiat where central bankers can create trillions at the stroke of a keyboard with no work whatsoever.


No it's not unlike fiat in the way suggested. The question is whether there is useful work done. Central and commercial banks are only supposed to create money proportionately to useful work being done in the economy, in which case there is no loss of value in the currency.

"Work" done by bitcoin miners is mostly useless and actually damaging to the economy in that it burns scarce fuel, contributes to environmental problems and diverts useful resources away from other more productive activities.

Bitcoin has only lasted so long because it was aided by the availability of interest-free capital which allowed its losses to be hidden for an extended period. Rising yields are now exposing the fantasy for what it is. (Yes I'm arguing that it is absence of inflation which favours bitcoin and similar scams).

GS

CliffEdge
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508326

Postby CliffEdge » June 19th, 2022, 5:52 pm

Hornblower wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

H


So do you advocate anarchy?

BoE


I suggest that a bit of research might be in order.

Try this link.
https://world.hey.com/dhh/i-was-wrong-w ... o-587ccb03
I was wrong, we need crypto: by D Hansson
This is crazy. Absolutely bonkers. Terrifying.

I still can't believe that this is the protest that would prove every Bitcoin crank a prophet. And for me to have to slice a piece of humble pie, and admit that I was wrong on crypto's fundamental necessity in Western democracies.

And that it was the Canadians who brought this on? You might as well have told me that it was really the Care Bears who ran Abu Ghraib.

I don't understand how Bitcoin helped the truckers?



Bitcoin allowed the truckers to still receive funding after the Can government shut down their bank accounts for being 'domestic extremists'.

Where did they spend their bitcoins?

Bubblesofearth
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508329

Postby Bubblesofearth » June 19th, 2022, 6:03 pm

Hornblower wrote:

Is that the only binary options that you can conceive?


Depends what you mean by 'separate money from the state'.

BoE

XFool
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508332

Postby XFool » June 19th, 2022, 6:09 pm

Urbandreamer wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:
Hornblower wrote:
This may be a technology that remakes the world, in the same way as the printing press did. The separation of money & state could fundamentally shift the balance of power between individuals & the state.

So do you advocate anarchy?

I suggest that a bit of research might be in order.[/quoyte]
You could be right...

Urbandreamer wrote:Try this link.
https://world.hey.com/dhh/i-was-wrong-w ... o-587ccb03
I was wrong, we need crypto: by D Hansson
This is crazy. Absolutely bonkers. Terrifying.

Yeah. Indeed...

Stop right there. I think you've said it - sounds like possibly one of the best arguments against Crypto I ever heard!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_convoy_protest

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_co ... our_groups

"In their February 7 statement, Teamsters Canada, representing more than 55,000 professional drivers, including approximately 15,000 long-haul truck drivers, of whom 90 percent are vaccinated, said that the protest "serves to delegitimize the real concerns of most truck drivers today". The statement said that the convoy and "the despicable display of hate led by the political right and shamefully encouraged by elected conservative politicians does not reflect the values of Teamsters Canada." "

It was favoured by Trump. Remember?

:: XFool has had no involvement with Crypto - other than indirectly and temporarily, via Ruffer Investment Company (RICA).

Hornblower
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508361

Postby Hornblower » June 19th, 2022, 8:41 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Hornblower wrote:Of course you could argue that the miners are simply speculating that the price will rise in the future because others will buy bitcoin, so it's worth the work involved....but at least there's a link with real world work. Unlike fiat where central bankers can create trillions at the stroke of a keyboard with no work whatsoever.


No it's not unlike fiat in the way suggested. The question is whether there is useful work done. Central and commercial banks are only supposed to create money proportionately to useful work being done in the economy, in which case there is no loss of value in the currency.

"Work" done by bitcoin miners is mostly useless and actually damaging to the economy in that it burns scarce fuel, contributes to environmental problems and diverts useful resources away from other more productive activities.

Bitcoin has only lasted so long because it was aided by the availability of interest-free capital which allowed its losses to be hidden for an extended period. Rising yields are now exposing the fantasy for what it is. (Yes I'm arguing that it is absence of inflation which favours bitcoin and similar scams).

GS



This argument rests on your definition of "Useful work", but this is an entirely subjective thing that will be different for different people at different times.


..."and diverts useful resources away from other more productive activities."

Spoken like a true central planner ;-) Surely the only thing that can decide what is a 'productive activity' is the market?


Are you taking the position, right now with inflation going nuts in multiple countries around the world, after interest rates have been artificially held at 300 year lows whilst we witnessed rampant asset inflation for a decade, with the US having printed 40% of all US dollars that have ever existed in the space of just 2 years, with the estimated total US gov unfunded liabilities at 2 or even 300 TRILLION, that central & commercial banks have been & are being prudent?

Is that your argument? If so, I don't know what to tell you. Are you perhaps taking this position because you can't bare to concede that bitcoin might have a purpose? ;-)

"Bitcoin has only lasted so long because it was aided by the availability of interest-free capital which allowed its losses to be hidden for an extended period. Rising yields are now exposing the fantasy for what it is. (Yes I'm arguing that it is absence of inflation which favours bitcoin and similar scams)."

I've been pondering this paragraph & for the life of me I can't make heads or tails of it.
Firstly, Bitcoin hasn't 'lasted'....it's been growing exponentially for 13 years in hashing power, price, users, transaction volumes (especially since the layer 2 solutions like Lightning that allow instant transactions are now growing like crazy). For the first few years the token was worth practically nothing, it was mined by hobbyists interested in exploring the technology.

Secondly, I don't know what you mean by 'allowed its losses to be hidden'. What losses? Are you arguing that bitcoin mining is only profitable in a low interest rate environment? Again, you may be showing your lack of understanding of the network. The mining hashing rate could drop dramatically & it would make no difference at all to the functioning of the network. It dynamically adjusts to the amount of mining going on. It doesn't need ever increasing amounts of mining... the hashrate has simply been growing furiously for years as the miners believe bitcoin will be worth more in the future. If we are in a higher interest rate environment, so it's more expensive to raise money to buy the miners, then the hashrate growth may slow or decline....so what? Makes no difference, bitcoin is already the most secure network in history.

'fantasy'...'scams'... again, entirely subjective opinions that you hold. Other people disagree.
I wouldn't put a bet on bitcoin failing anytime soon.

H
Last edited by Hornblower on June 19th, 2022, 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Hornblower
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508362

Postby Hornblower » June 19th, 2022, 8:52 pm

Stop right there. I think you've said it - sounds like possibly one of the best arguments against Crypto I ever heard!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_convoy_protest

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_co ... our_groups

"In their February 7 statement, Teamsters Canada, representing more than 55,000 professional drivers, including approximately 15,000 long-haul truck drivers, of whom 90 percent are vaccinated, said that the protest "serves to delegitimize the real concerns of most truck drivers today". The statement said that the convoy and "the despicable display of hate led by the political right and shamefully encouraged by elected conservative politicians does not reflect the values of Teamsters Canada." "

It was favoured by Trump. Remember?

:: XFool has had no involvement with Crypto - other than indirectly and temporarily, via Ruffer Investment Company (RICA).[/quote]




'Bitcoin is bad because bad orange man likes it'

Truckers are 'far right' etc


Money shouldn't be political. Your money shouldn't be able to be turned off because you hold an opinion a political party doesn't like. Surely you can see that the ability to censor money itself is a serious threat to freedom & free speech?

Step out of the cosy bubble of the West where we still kid ourselves we live in a free & open democracy, more than 60% of the world's population lives under authoritarian regimes. Don't you think Bitcoin might be kind of useful to them to help them escape tyranny?

That's one reason why bitcoin is so important, it removes the ability of any 3rd party (like a hostile state, or a bank) to arbitrarily confiscate your money, nor stop you transacting with whomever you choose anywhere in the world.

Can bad people / terrorists / drug dealers use this money too? Yup. Just like they can use cars, the internet, telephone systems etc.


H

CliffEdge
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508371

Postby CliffEdge » June 19th, 2022, 9:27 pm

Hornblower wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Hornblower wrote:Of course you could argue that the miners are simply speculating that the price will rise in the future because others will buy bitcoin, so it's worth the work involved....but at least there's a link with real world work. Unlike fiat where central bankers can create trillions at the stroke of a keyboard with no work whatsoever.


No it's not unlike fiat in the way suggested. The question is whether there is useful work done. Central and commercial banks are only supposed to create money proportionately to useful work being done in the economy, in which case there is no loss of value in the currency.

"Work" done by bitcoin miners is mostly useless and actually damaging to the economy in that it burns scarce fuel, contributes to environmental problems and diverts useful resources away from other more productive activities.

Bitcoin has only lasted so long because it was aided by the availability of interest-free capital which allowed its losses to be hidden for an extended period. Rising yields are now exposing the fantasy for what it is. (Yes I'm arguing that it is absence of inflation which favours bitcoin and similar scams).

GS



This argument rests on your definition of "Useful work", but this is an entirely subjective thing that will be different for different people at different times.


..."and diverts useful resources away from other more productive activities."

Spoken like a true central planner ;-) Surely the only thing that can decide what is a 'productive activity' is the market?


Are you taking the position, right now with inflation going nuts in multiple countries around the world, after interest rates have been artificially held at 300 year lows whilst we witnessed rampant asset inflation for a decade, with the US having printed 40% of all US dollars that have ever existed in the space of just 2 years, with the estimated total US gov unfunded liabilities at 2 or even 300 TRILLION, that central & commercial banks have been & are being prudent?

Is that your argument? If so, I don't know what to tell you. Are you perhaps taking this position because you can't bare to concede that bitcoin might have a purpose? ;-)

"Bitcoin has only lasted so long because it was aided by the availability of interest-free capital which allowed its losses to be hidden for an extended period. Rising yields are now exposing the fantasy for what it is. (Yes I'm arguing that it is absence of inflation which favours bitcoin and similar scams)."

I've been pondering this paragraph & for the life of me I can't make heads or tails of it.
Firstly, Bitcoin hasn't 'lasted'....it's been growing exponentially for 13 years in hashing power, price, users, transaction volumes (especially since the layer 2 solutions like Lightning that allow instant transactions are now growing like crazy). For the first few years the token was worth practically nothing, it was mined by hobbyists interested in exploring the technology.

Secondly, I don't know what you mean by 'allowed its losses to be hidden'. What losses? Are you arguing that bitcoin mining is only profitable in a low interest rate environment? Again, you may be showing your lack of understanding of the network. The mining hashing rate could drop dramatically & it would make no difference at all to the functioning of the network. It dynamically adjusts to the amount of mining going on. It doesn't need ever increasing amounts of mining... the hashrate has simply been growing furiously for years as the miners believe bitcoin will be worth more in the future. If we are in a higher interest rate environment, so it's more expensive to raise money to buy the miners, then the hashrate growth may slow or decline....so what? Makes no difference, bitcoin is already the most secure network in history.

'fantasy'...'scams'... again, entirely subjective opinions that you hold. Other people disagree.
I wouldn't put a bet on bitcoin failing anytime soon.

H

You seriously don't understand Lightning risk?

XFool
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508376

Postby XFool » June 19th, 2022, 9:52 pm

Hornblower wrote:
XFool wrote:Stop right there. I think you've said it - sounds like possibly one of the best arguments against Crypto I ever heard!
Fool
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_convoy_protest

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_co ... our_groups

"In their February 7 statement, Teamsters Canada, representing more than 55,000 professional drivers, including approximately 15,000 long-haul truck drivers, of whom 90 percent are vaccinated, said that the protest "serves to delegitimize the real concerns of most truck drivers today". The statement said that the convoy and "the despicable display of hate led by the political right and shamefully encouraged by elected conservative politicians does not reflect the values of Teamsters Canada." "

It was favoured by Trump. Remember?

:: XFool has had no involvement with Crypto - other than indirectly and temporarily, via Ruffer Investment Company (RICA).

'Bitcoin is bad because bad orange man likes it'

You've missed the point entirely (deliberately?). The "bad orange man" supported a bunch of truckers and right wing 'libertarian' types on a crackpot campaign against the government in the middle of said government dealing with a serious and widespread public health emergency. In a society there are priorities - these are not necessarily absolute or constant over time and change as circumstances change. This is life.

Hornblower wrote:Truckers are 'far right' etc

Well, you can read the Wikipedia article as well as I can.

Hornblower wrote:Money shouldn't be political.

Yeah. But politics is "political".

Hornblower wrote:Your money shouldn't be able to be turned off because you hold an opinion a political party doesn't like. Surely you can see that the ability to censor money itself is a serious threat to freedom & free speech?

Step out of the cosy bubble of the West where we still kid ourselves we live in a free & open democracy, more than 60% of the world's population lives under authoritarian regimes. Don't you think Bitcoin might be kind of useful to them to help them escape tyranny?

A bunch of right wing truckers don't have the right to impose their own interpretation of reality onto everyone else in a democratic Western society, particularly in the middle of a public health emergency. That's my view, from my "cosy bubble". What about the tyranny of some truckers obstructing everyone else going about their legal business? Perhaps you think truckers have, or merit, some kind of Get Out of Jail Free card?

Hornblower wrote:That's one reason why bitcoin is so important, it removes the ability of any 3rd party (like a hostile state, or a bank) to arbitrarily confiscate your money, nor stop you transacting with whomever you choose anywhere in the world.

If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?
(Likely I could also do it if I was any of those! But, as I am not, I really don't know.)

GrahamPlatt
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508380

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 19th, 2022, 10:17 pm

XFool wrote: If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?


Have you tried dealing in Roubles recently?

I have no skin In this game, just sayin’.

XFool
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508381

Postby XFool » June 19th, 2022, 10:23 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?

Have you tried dealing in Roubles recently?

No. Why would I want to?

GrahamPlatt
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508384

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 19th, 2022, 10:28 pm

XFool wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?

Have you tried dealing in Roubles recently?

No. Why would I want to?


Don’t be obtuse. If you did want to, you’d be hampered, by politics.
The libertarian in me does recognise a need for a properly decentralised currency. Bitcoin and it’s crypto ilk or may not be the solution. I certainly don’t appreciate the energy demands.

Mike4
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508393

Postby Mike4 » June 19th, 2022, 11:48 pm

BungeeJumper wrote:I don't suppose anybody really knows, because this is uncharted territory. But if it's true that it currently costs $35,000 to mine a bitcoin, then the logical thing for a miner to do at $18,000 is to stop mining, no? What happens after that?

BJ


Hornblower wrote:That depends on the miners conviction about the future value of bitcoin. They may choose to continue mining even at a loss.


Why would they do that? I don't understand. Why would anyone continue mining them at a cost of $35k when they can buy them already mined for $18k?

XFool
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Re: Crypto crash?

#508395

Postby XFool » June 20th, 2022, 12:11 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?

Have you tried dealing in Roubles recently?

No. Why would I want to?

Don’t be obtuse. If you did want to, you’d be hampered, by politics.

I insist: Right now - in particular - why would I want to deal in Roubles? I certainly do not need to.

Sounds to me as if Cryptos are a 'solution' still looking for a problem, as far as most people are concerned. Perhaps they are more about political ideology than money or finance?

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Re: Crypto crash?

#508408

Postby Hornblower » June 20th, 2022, 8:01 am

Mike4 wrote:
BungeeJumper wrote:I don't suppose anybody really knows, because this is uncharted territory. But if it's true that it currently costs $35,000 to mine a bitcoin, then the logical thing for a miner to do at $18,000 is to stop mining, no? What happens after that?

BJ


Hornblower wrote:That depends on the miners conviction about the future value of bitcoin. They may choose to continue mining even at a loss.


Why would they do that? I don't understand. Why would anyone continue mining them at a cost of $35k when they can buy them already mined for $18k?



They observably DO keep mining though. Perhaps it's the sunk costs + a conviction that the price will bounce? In prolonged downturns, you'll see total hash rate start declining as miners with higher power prices switch off.

H

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Re: Crypto crash?

#508410

Postby Hornblower » June 20th, 2022, 8:07 am

XFool wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
XFool wrote:If I need to do that, assuming I am not a drug dealer, international terrorist, or money launderer, what is stopping me doing so right now?

Have you tried dealing in Roubles recently?

No. Why would I want to?

Don’t be obtuse. If you did want to, you’d be hampered, by politics.

I insist: Right now - in particular - why would I want to deal in Roubles? I certainly do not need to.

Sounds to me as if Cryptos are a 'solution' still looking for a problem, as far as most people are concerned. Perhaps they are more about political ideology than money or finance?



Perhaps you're simply speaking from a place of extreme financial privilege. If you think the money isn't broken, then of course you'll not understand a need to fix it. Just like insiders saw no need to separate church & state a few hundred years ago.


H


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