There are plenty of economic forecasts that are broadly correct - the problem is that the market has already orientated itself that way anyway, so there is no payoff in being right.
You either need to go against a consensus and be right and also consistently right. This is not an easy thing to do.
2023 is a good example - markets were broadly expecting a mild recession and had price themselves as such. Personally I am always skeptical of consensus forecasts, and I thought that we would either avoid recession altogether or have a very bad recession, with the former the most likely outcome.. which is what has happened. Therefore it paid to be long on equities and risky assets.
For 2024 I think consensus forecasts are far too optimistic:
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2 ... ngs-growthanalysts expect earnings to recover and accelerate throughout the year, with above long term average earnings growth of 11.8% and near record profit margins. Maybe that will be accurate, but I personally think companies will have a harder time making money. Therefore, imo, the risk/reward is not very favourable and more caution is warranted. Again, some of this is based on my own experiences where I know as fact that management has had to internally revise revenue forecast down such is the state of business.
As a comparison:
2024 forecasts vs 2023 provisional numbers
Earnings growth 11.8% vs 0.6%
Revenue growth 5.5% vs 2.3%
Profit margin: 12.3% vs 11.6%