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Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

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MrFoolish
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664460

Postby MrFoolish » May 15th, 2024, 5:10 pm

GoSeigen wrote:[OT]

Arborbridge wrote:Looking at HL's chart, it certainly looks as though it might be becoming "buyable". A TA person would like to see a fall to a higher bottom to be established, then there's a nice formation with potential upside.

Nice to see a bit of TA on this board. LOL.

Seriously though, agree on your reading of the chart. Would seriously consider buying some of these if I weren't so focused on "selling in May" -- at least I'm reducing leverage and paying down a bit of debt which has been costing me 7%pa, mainly funding margin, plus the carry on the futures/forward positions I've been holding. I'm happy to have taken on the leverage because it's helped keep me fully invested in the cash portfolios too.

But yes, definitely a share to look at buying if it drops back to this sort of level in a few months.

GS


It amuses me when people talk about TA because they never seem to commit to buying anything. It's always "well I might buy in the future if such and such happens".

vand
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664475

Postby vand » May 15th, 2024, 8:14 pm

kempiejon wrote:I liked the prospects of HL back in 2015 so bought some, added in 2016 and 2017. The dividend had a good history but even with the specials a bit of a stretch to see them as high yield. In 2017 they cut the dividend and ditched the fairly regular special too. Cut in 21, cut in 22. The specials came back from in 2018 - 2021.
Rough estimate, I have had in dividends an equivalence to reduction in share price.


Are you sure about most of that?

According to IanTHuges' tables above the only time the standard dividend was reduced was in 2015, by 3.41%. Every other year it has been raised. Special divis have been more flexible, granted.

seems to be confirmed on dividendmax:
https://www.dividendmax.com/united-king ... /dividends

kempiejon
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664477

Postby kempiejon » May 15th, 2024, 8:35 pm

vand wrote:Are you sure about most of that?


I am not. My record keeping doesn't itemise the specials. A quick look at my receipts the March dividends have indeed risen each year. The October/December pay out in 2020 was higher than 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Some details here https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... /dividends
- - - - ---------------------------------2023                      .....2019
Total dividend for year: - 41.50p 39.70p 50.50p 54.90p 42.00p

monabri
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664479

Postby monabri » May 15th, 2024, 9:01 pm


Arborbridge
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664487

Postby Arborbridge » May 15th, 2024, 10:31 pm

MrFoolish wrote:
It amuses me when people talk about TA because they never seem to commit to buying anything. It's always "well I might buy in the future if such and such happens".


That's not correct. Back in the day, I could give you lists of dozens of trades I made using TA. I don't blame you for not knowing my history, but I spent many years trading using TA, with moderate success. I never made a fortune, but I did find it a very good way of making sure one does not lose much. It was too time consuming, however, and when I read Stephen Bland's writings, I saw that his ideas would suit me in retirement quite well. So since around 2006-7 I've not been using TA, xcept for a quick glance for old time's sake, or help a difficult decision. Indeed, if I had been, there's no way I would have hung on to some of the shares as long as I did! (eg Carillion).

More recently, I have used TA by setting stop losses and have mentioned that fact on TLF.

As for HL., I doubt I shall be buying, - but then, I'm not buying much new these days but running with what I have, and also using more ITs as I approach my dotage.

Arb.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664498

Postby GoSeigen » May 16th, 2024, 5:55 am

MrFoolish wrote:
It amuses me when people talk about TA because they never seem to commit to buying anything. It's always "well I might buy in the future if such and such happens".


I’d say you’re not paying enough attention then. Maybe visit the TA board which is quiet so new interest will be welcome. I also post regularly on the Bonds and Gilts board, Million Challenge and investing strategy. TA discussion is OT in most places so you need to read between the lines sometimes.

GS

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664502

Postby GoSeigen » May 16th, 2024, 7:20 am

GoSeigen wrote:
MrFoolish wrote:
It amuses me when people talk about TA because they never seem to commit to buying anything. It's always "well I might buy in the future if such and such happens".


I’d say you’re not paying enough attention then. Maybe visit the TA board which is quiet so new interest will be welcome. I also post regularly on the Bonds and Gilts board, Million Challenge and investing strategy. TA discussion is OT in most places so you need to read between the lines sometimes.


Definitely not paying attention: my latest post on a thread you yourself participated in discussed my purchase based on the TA discussion there.

GS
P.S. This is my final post on this subject here, please continue on the TA board if it's of interest.

vand
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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664510

Postby vand » May 16th, 2024, 8:21 am



Ah, so you are counting all dividends, including specials in that annual dividend growth. Fair enough, I suppose. I consider the specials just that - bonuses that shouldn't be expected to be carried into perpertuity.

HL total returns:

5yr -54%
10yr 2%
max since 2007: 658%

clearly the last 5 years have been rough and undone all the work of the 5 years prior to that, but if you have held since day 1 you would still be well ahead of the general market

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664532

Postby monabri » May 16th, 2024, 11:12 am

vand wrote:Ah, so you are counting all dividends, including specials in that annual dividend growth. Fair enough, I suppose. I consider the specials just that - bonuses that shouldn't be expected to be carried into perpertuity.

HL total returns:

5yr -54%
10yr 2%
max since 2007: 658%

clearly the last 5 years have been rough and undone all the work of the 5 years prior to that, but if you have held since day 1 you would still be well ahead of the general market


I posted the table to merely lay out all dividends -nothing further.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664578

Postby IanTHughes » May 16th, 2024, 5:37 pm

Let’s have a closer look at this possible High Yield Portfolio (HYP) candidate.

First all the history.

The dividends, including specials, have been much discussed, as has the drop in Market Price over the past 5 or so years. Here I have calculated the returns that might have been achieved from purchases made at various dates in the past:

         | Date      | Price      | Yield ORD | Yield +SPE | 16-May-24 | Dividends | Tot Rtn
01 Year | 16-May-23 | 802.0000 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 896.2000 | 42.0000 | 16.54%
02 Years | 16-May-22 | 877.6000 | 4.43% | 5.80% | 896.2000 | 82.1400 | 5.48%
03 Years | 16-May-21 | 1,713.5000 | 2.23% | 3.24% | 896.2000 | 133.0000 | -16.64%
05 Years | 16-May-19 | 2,392.0000 | 1.35% | 1.68% | 896.2000 | 231.5000 | -15.24%
10 Years | 16-May-14 | 1,180.3750 | 1.81% | 2.57% | 896.2000 | 402.8000 | 1.07%
15 Years | 18-May-09 | 205.5000 | 2.67% | 3.65% | 896.2000 | 502.8310 | 18.80%


At a current yield of 5%, this share is indeed within HYP range although, with a number of other holdings offering 9-10% I would suggest that Hargreaves Lansdown is somewhat bringing up the rear. Still, in a full HYP being built now, it may well figure.

Now to what we should expect going forward.

HL has rather crept up on me and so far, I have made no detailed investigation. Today I have read through what some others are saying and, given time, I shall review the latest accounts.

What does HL do?

HL is what used to be called a stockbroker. Of course that has rather morphed into an Investment Platform provider, giving clients the ability to directly purchase investments – Shares, ETFs, Gilts and Bonds, Investment Trusts - without having to go through a Financial Adviser. They can provide various Account Types – Dealing, ISA’s (Regular, Junior, Lifetime), SIPP’s – and of course provide certificates and documentation that may be needed for official purposes – Tax!

I cannot find out if they offer an Investment Manager service. Does anyone know?

How does HL make money?

HL has more than 1.7 Million clients from which fees are earned, I believe in two distinct ways.

1. Custody services
2. Transaction processing

Someone on this thread mentioned Interest being earned on Clients’ cash balances. This appears somewhat odd to me as my broker, A J Bell (AJB), pays interest on my cash to me. They may make a margin for themselves, probably do, but I believe the bulk comes to me.

Incidentally, when I was selecting an Investment Platform provider, back in 2012, I turned down HL as being too expensive. I believe they are still more expensive than some other platforms - AJB and Interactive Investor (II) – to name but two. There are those who believe that HL may be forced to review those fees, possibly reducing earnings in the process.

However, there are others who say that HL clients generally are content. HL does not lose any more client than other brokers.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hargreav ... 00878.html

But is Hargreaves Lansdown worth it?

Despite the higher cost, Hargreaves Lansdown remains a top choice among investors and is particularly popular among its own customers.

Its retention rate was 92.1pc last quarter. Part of the pull is its broad range of investment options. It offers Isas, junior Isas, Sipps, lifetime Isas, international shares from the US, Canada and Europe, as well as its own multi-manager and ready-made funds and a dedicated cash-saving platform and cash Isa.

It also has top notch customer service, according to Platforum, which rated it a 5/5 for content and investment choice, a 4/5 for user experience and a 4/5 for its mobile app service. It found that customers could easily get in touch and received a quick response.

Boring Money found the same. It regularly surveys more than 3,000 platform investors and Hargreaves Lansdown has the top score of all the traditional platforms — 40pc of its customers give them a 9 or 10/10 when asked if they would recommend the service.

“Hargreaves Lansdown is undoubtedly a class act, but costs are falling across the sector so it has become relatively more expensive. If you have time to spend on investments and like getting the best price, then it’s not for you,” said Holly Mackay, founder of Boring Money.

“But if you want something which works and is a reliable FTSE 100 company which will stay the course, it might be. At the end of the day, customers like Hargreaves. They think it does a good job and would recommend it – but they know it’s pricey.”

Also, while the Share Price has been diminishing – tanking? – over the past few years, Earnings per Share (EPS) has been rising. Clearly not all Retail Investors agree with me with regard to HL fees.

As an aside, here is some analysis concerning the effect of fees on an Investment Portfolio.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hargreav ... 00878.html

True cost of fees

While it can be easy to brush off the cost of a company you like, especially when the money is taken automatically from your investment account, the impact of higher charges can be substantial in the long run.

Analysis from the Lang Cat, a consultancy firm, shows that a pot worth £100,000 would be worth £162,890 after 10 years of 6pc investment growth, if the fees were 1pc. If the fees were 2pc, the pot would be worth just £148,000.

After 30 years, the pot paying 1pc would be worth £432,200, while the pot paying 2pc would be worth £324,340.

To put it another way, after 10 years the investment portfolio being charged 2pc has lost about 9pc of what it could have made had it been paying half the fees. After 30 years, it had lost 25pc.

Maybe I was right to pass on HL’s fees!

Does HL make it into an HYP?

I guess I am still worried about HL being forced into a fees war with its competitors. All those short sellers may just be right!

For me, IG Group (IGG) offers a better alternative. Sure, IGG is not exactly the same kind of beast as HL. IGG are more widespread and of course are heavily into Traded Options – Over the Counter and Exchange Traded. Only 3% of their revenue comes from boring old share trades. I guess their clients are more Professional Traders than the more amateur ISA or SIPP holders. IGG offers a higher yield and a rising dividend over the last 3 years, after being unchanged for the prior 3 years, strongly rising in spurts before that.

As I said, I shall review the accounts when time allows, but for now HL is a no go from me!

Enjoy!


Ian

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664582

Postby Alaric » May 16th, 2024, 6:48 pm

IanTHughes wrote:I cannot find out if they offer an Investment Manager service. Does anyone know?


They offer a packaged portfolio service
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/hl-funds/hl-portfolio-funds

They also have a series of recommended funds. The funds managed by Woodfird were on their recommended list for perhaps far to long. That may come back to bite them.

They offer financial advice
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice
I think that's how they started before they majored on being mostly an investment platform.

https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/f ... l-planning
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/investment-advice
They have 88 people, so not a large operation by the standards of say St James Place
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/a ... ll-regions

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664590

Postby IanTHughes » May 16th, 2024, 8:00 pm

Alaric wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:I cannot find out if they offer an Investment Manager service. Does anyone know?

They offer a packaged portfolio service
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/hl-funds/hl-portfolio-funds

They also have a series of recommended funds. The funds managed by Woodfird were on their recommended list for perhaps far to long. That may come back to bite them.

They offer financial advice
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice
I think that's how they started before they majored on being mostly an investment platform.

https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/f ... l-planning
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/investment-advice
They have 88 people, so not a large operation by the standards of say St James Place
https://www.hl.co.uk/financial-advice/a ... ll-regions

How did I miss all that. Must be going senile!

About what I expected to be there, looks a very similar list to A J Bell's, although having now found a list of tariffs - last page of Terms and Conditions document - HL is definitely still somewhat more expensive to use than A J Bell.

The funds managed by Woodfird were on their recommended list for perhaps far to long. That may come back to bite them.

What is the issue with this that might cause Brokers to be liable? Will it really cause a problem?

Enjoy!


Ian

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#664592

Postby IanTHughes » May 16th, 2024, 9:06 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
The funds managed by Woodfird were on their recommended list for perhaps far to long. That may come back to bite them.

What is the issue with this that might cause Brokers to be liable? Will it really cause a problem?


I think I have found one answer myself ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48510235

What went wrong?

Investors had piled into the fund which, at its peak, had more than £10bn of people's money in it. Some financial advisers had suggested it to their clients and Hargreaves Lansdown placed it in its Wealth 50 list of favourite funds.

"But its performance didn't live up to the hype and investors and commentators began to lose confidence," says Patrick Connolly, from financial advisers Chase de Vere.

Not the Brokers, the Financial Advisers!

Enjoy!


Ian

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665319

Postby BullDog » May 22nd, 2024, 6:48 pm

And right on cue, HL gets a takeover bid.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665331

Postby IanTHughes » May 22nd, 2024, 7:47 pm

Possible offer being considered for Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (HL)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... wn/8215395

The Consortium confirms that it is considering a possible offer for HL, most recently having approached the Board of HL at 985 pence per HL share on 26 April 2024. The Board of HL rejected this proposal.

There can be no certainty that any firm offer will be made.

A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate

Enjoy!


Ian

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665342

Postby simoan » May 22nd, 2024, 11:35 pm

BullDog wrote:And right on cue, HL gets a takeover bid.

Hilarious. It’s pretty clear that news had leaked judging by the large increase in volume and jump in share price at 4pm. Must be those short trying to buy back shares in a damned hurry! Shame HL didn’t see fit to announce the bid which seems very credible given who the bidders are.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665345

Postby simoan » May 23rd, 2024, 12:11 am

IanTHughes wrote:Possible offer being considered for Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (HL)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... wn/8215395

The Consortium confirms that it is considering a possible offer for HL, most recently having approached the Board of HL at 985 pence per HL share on 26 April 2024. The Board of HL rejected this proposal.

There can be no certainty that any firm offer will be made.

A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate

Enjoy!


Ian

Worth noting that it’s a slightly strange situation for such a large cap company in that any bid cannot succeed without the agreement of the two founders who jointly hold 52% of the shares. Lindsell Train also have 12% as the largest institutional holder.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665386

Postby vand » May 23rd, 2024, 8:33 am

Just offloaded 40% of my shares. Glad that the value was recognised, but a 60% rise in the last couple of months is too much to to bag some.

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665405

Postby idpickering » May 23rd, 2024, 9:17 am

Offer Rejection

The independent Board of Directors of Hargreaves Lansdown[1] (the 'Board') notes the announcement from a consortium comprising CVC Advisers Limited ('CVC'), Nordic Capital XI Delta, SCSP (acting through its general partner Nordic Capital XI Delta GP SARL) ('Nordic Capital'), and Platinum Ivy B 2018 RSC Limited ('Platinum Ivy'), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ('ADIA') managed by the Private Equities investment department of ADIA (together, the 'Consortium') and confirms that it had previously received two approaches from the Consortium regarding a possible offer for Hargreaves Lansdown, most recently at a price of 985 pence per ordinary share in the share capital of Hargreaves Lansdown (the 'Proposal').

The Board confirms that it unanimously rejected the Proposal on the basis it substantially undervalues Hargreaves Lansdown and its future prospects. The Board is focused on executing its strategy and looks forward to updating the market at the full year results on 9th August 2024. In the meantime, shareholders are advised to take no action.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... on/8215818

Ian (No holding).

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Re: Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) - 52 week lows represent a fantastic opportunity?

#665455

Postby IanTHughes » May 23rd, 2024, 1:13 pm

simoan wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Possible offer being considered for Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (HL)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... wn/8215395

Worth noting that it’s a slightly strange situation for such a large cap company in that any bid cannot succeed without the agreement of the two founders who jointly hold 52% of the shares. Lindsell Train also have 12% as the largest institutional holder.

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/sto ... 4/company/

The figures I have found for the largest shareholders are:

          Name                            | Equities   |   %   
Peter Hargreaves | 93,838,474 | 19.78%
Lindsell Train Ltd. | 56,874,459 | 11.99%
Stephen Philip Lansdown | 27,087,419 | 5.71%
Baillie Gifford & Co. | 23,517,973 | 4.96%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. | 14,827,238 | 3.13%
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. | 14,677,495 | 3.09%
Liontrust Investment Partners LLP | 12,385,345 | 2.61%
Metropolis Capital Ltd. | 10,861,123 | 2.29%
BlackRock Fund Advisors | 7,827,000 | 1.65%
UBS Asset Management (UK) Ltd. | 7,184,417 | 1.52%

The two founders' total holding, is less than half the 52% reported above.

Enjoy!


Ian


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