Kwarteng's plan?

[NotSure]

...Yesterday I saw comments yesterday from Crispin Odey (a very influential British hedge fund manager for those on TLF who don't know the name).....

Coincidently or otherwise, he's an ex-employer of KK......

[absolutezero]

The growing expectation of a Labour win is of itself the greatest headwind to any economic recovery.

V8

And maybe that is what the market is reacting to and pricing GBP and gilts for that outcome.

[Lootman]

I saw comments yesterday from Crispin Odey (a very influential British hedge fund manager for those on TLF who don't know the name), where he said that much of the selling is driven by hedge funds run by remainers who saw an opportunity to bash Liz Truss and Kwazi Kwarteng. He, like you and I and several others on TLF, expects the pound to soon reach parity with the dollar and has held this opinion for long before last Friday's announcements

Yes, anyone who has been paying attention knows that sterling has been going down for decades. In fact from memory it reached USD 2.12 in 2007 immediately before the global financial crisis. So sterling has halved in 15 years against the dollar and the fall of the last few days is trivial in comparison.

I don't have a problem with people shorting sterling or gilts. If the fundamentals look bad for them, for whatever reason, it is foolish to do otherwise. Not over-weighting the UK is probably the best macro level investment decision I have made in the last couple of decades and I see no reason to change now. There is really no reason to invest n the UK as you can get the same or better elsewhere.

[murraypaul]

... has encouraged opponents (particularly remainers) to bash the government from all angles.

Ah of, course, it is all the remainers' fault. Just like everything else in the country.

You won, get over it.

[GeoffF100]

Pensioncraft has a good video on this "UK's Economic Crisis 2022 - What Happens Next?":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyltRZPqOH0

[SalvorHardin]

... has encouraged opponents (particularly remainers) to bash the government from all angles.

Ah of, course, it is all the remainers' fault. Just like everything else in the country.

You won, get over it.

I already have. You clearly haven't though!

Anyway, asides from pointing out that I didn't say anything that could be interpreted as "it is all the remainers' fault", there is a serious point to the level of opposition from remainers (as Crispin Odey has pointed out) and it's not about making cheap political points.

If fervent remainer hedge funders have been behind a lot of the recent movements then it is highly likely that the these movements cannot be totally justified by the economics. This makes it likely that there has been a bit of mispricing and thus an opportunity for investors. As I decided this morning when I put £50,000 into the central London property specialists (the remainder of my "rainy day fund"; up almost 7% as I type this).

[GeoffF100]

If fervent remainer hedge funders have been behind a lot of the recent movements then it is highly likely that the these movements cannot be totally justified by the economics.

That sounds very far fetched to me. Is there any evidence? I expect that they are just trying to make money. Conspiracy theories are almost always wrong.

[SalvorHardin]

If fervent remainer hedge funders have been behind a lot of the recent movements then it is highly likely that the these movements cannot be totally justified by the economics.

That sounds very far fetched to me. Is there any evidence? I expect that they are just trying to make money. Conspiracy theories are almost always wrong.

I refer the honourable gentleman to an earlier post of mine which referenced to the following commentary

[url]"Remainers are to blame for the run on the pound, claims hedge fund tycoon Crispin Odey "[/url]

""The prominent hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has defended his bets against the pound, arguing that the historic rout in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts was triggered by Remainers in the City who “hate” the Government. Mr Odey, arguably Britain’s best known hedge fund chief, told The Telegraph: “I never felt the kind of hate that Friday stirred up for a long time. “Amongst lots of friends of mine who are Remainers, they just decided that they hate this Government. Obviously Kwasi they hate now as well, and they think Liz Truss is useless. They can't stand poor Jacob Rees-Mogg.”"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/27/remainers-blame-run-pound-claims-hedge-fund-tycoon-crispin-odey/

[XFool]

If fervent remainer hedge funders have been behind a lot of the recent movements then it is highly likely that the these movements cannot be totally justified by the economics.

That sounds very far fetched to me. Is there any evidence? I expect that they are just trying to make money. Conspiracy theories are almost always wrong.

I refer the honourable gentleman to an earlier post of mine which referenced to the following commentary

[url]"Remainers are to blame for the run on the pound, claims hedge fund tycoon Crispin Odey "[/url]

""The prominent hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has defended his bets against the pound, arguing that the historic rout in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts was triggered by Remainers in the City who “hate” the Government. Mr Odey, arguably Britain’s best known hedge fund chief, told The Telegraph: “I never felt the kind of hate that Friday stirred up for a long time. “Amongst lots of friends of mine who are Remainers, they just decided that they hate this Government. Obviously Kwasi they hate now as well, and they think Liz Truss is useless. They can't stand poor Jacob Rees-Mogg.”"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/27/remainers-blame-run-pound-claims-hedge-fund-tycoon-crispin-odey/

Yes. We know, we know...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crispin_Odey

"Robin Crispin William Odey (born January 1959) is a London-based hedge fund manager and the founding partner of Odey Asset Management. In April 2011 the firm had $6.5 to $7 billion under management, with Odey personally running $4 billion of assets. According to Bloomberg in November 2017, he is "known for his bearish outlook" on the markets"

"In 2016, Odey was a prominent backer of Brexit"

[GeoffF100]

If fervent remainer hedge funders have been behind a lot of the recent movements then it is highly likely that the these movements cannot be totally justified by the economics.

That sounds very far fetched to me. Is there any evidence? I expect that they are just trying to make money. Conspiracy theories are almost always wrong.

I refer the honourable gentleman to an earlier post of mine which referenced to the following commentary

[url]"Remainers are to blame for the run on the pound, claims hedge fund tycoon Crispin Odey "[/url]

""The prominent hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has defended his bets against the pound, arguing that the historic rout in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts was triggered by Remainers in the City who “hate” the Government. Mr Odey, arguably Britain’s best known hedge fund chief, told The Telegraph: “I never felt the kind of hate that Friday stirred up for a long time. “Amongst lots of friends of mine who are Remainers, they just decided that they hate this Government. Obviously Kwasi they hate now as well, and they think Liz Truss is useless. They can't stand poor Jacob Rees-Mogg.”"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/27/remainers-blame-run-pound-claims-hedge-fund-tycoon-crispin-odey/

Yes. We know, we know...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crispin_Odey

"Robin Crispin William Odey (born January 1959) is a London-based hedge fund manager and the founding partner of Odey Asset Management. In April 2011 the firm had $6.5 to $7 billion under management, with Odey personally running $4 billion of assets. According to Bloomberg in November 2017, he is "known for his bearish outlook" on the markets"

"In 2016, Odey was a prominent backer of Brexit"

Apart from the fact that none of them are Remainers, because we have left, how much money did they trade? The foreign exchange market turns over $5 trillion per day:

https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies?quote=gbp

What is their objective? To put Ed Davey in Number 10?

[Lootman]

What is their objective? To put Ed Davey in Number 10?

I admire the triumph of hope over experience. Ed is currently 100-1 to be the next PM, below Rishi Sunak and Angela Rayner, both at 50-1! And below Boris of course.

But a man can dream, right?

[SalvorHardin]

Apart from the fact that none of them are Remainers, because we have left, how much money did they trade? The foreign exchange market turns over $5 trillion per day:

https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies?quote=gbp

What is their objective? To put Ed Davey in Number 10?

Given that the term "remainer" has passed into the English lexicon and is used to describe people who wanted to remain in the EU, I'm perfectly happy to use it as such (as are most people).

As to hedge funds being able to significantly affect prices, I'm happy to accept Crispin Odey's theory as to what happened. He's got vastly more experience regarding these markets than me.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Shut the front door!

Draw up plan for cuts, government departments told

Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Philp, will write to government departments in the coming days about finding spending efficiencies.

The Treasury has rejected calls to abandon last week's mini-budget in the face of market turmoil.

What Tory MPs are saying about Kwasi Kwarteng's future

Inept, humiliating, naïve and reckless are just some of the words that have cropped up.

I'm not surprised we haven't seen Liz Truss! I wouldn't be surprised to see EastEnders replaced with "No. 10 & 11".

I know Liz has promised she would deliver, deliver, deliver but I was expecting there to be positive results. This all really smacks of rank amateurism. It's beyond madness.

AiY(D)

[SalvorHardin]

What is their objective? To put Ed Davey in Number 10?

I admire the triumph of hope over experience. Ed is currently 100-1 to be the next PM, below Rishi Sunak and Angela Rayner, both at 50-1! And below Boris of course.

But a man can dream, right?

I have £100 on Boris at 40-1 to be the next Conservative leader. His "hasta la vista" end to his leaving speech was rounded off silently with an "I'll be back" (in Arnie's accent).

Boris is now 13-2 joint favourite with Kemi Badenoch at Bet365. We live in interesting times.

7-4 Will Mellor for Strictly looks a much safer bet though.

[GeoffF100]

Given that the term "remainer" has passed into the English lexicon and is used to describe people who wanted to remain in the EU, I'm perfectly happy to use it as such (as are most people).

That makes Liz Truss is a Remainer.

[tjh290633]

Historically the criterion was that your mortgage repayments should not exceed 25% of your monthly income. In those days they were tax deductible, of course. If you were on an interest only mortgage, you got tax relief on the insurance premiums on the endowment policy intended to repay it.

Interest rates about 5% or so when I started.

TJH

Agreed
But I don't recall the "average" house price being that much higher than average salary then
Perhaps it's just numbers getting further apart by their nature that feels bigger in perspective rather than fact

My first house was bought in 1963, for £2,600. My salary was £1175, and the RSC median was £1250 according to their regular reviews for my age group. We had saved my wife's salary, so the mortgage was only £1600. Mortgage repayments were about £11.50 a month for a 20-year repayment mortgage.

By the time that I retired in 1998, the value of my then house was about 5.5 times my retiring salary. Currently at least 9 times my current income, possibly 12 times. I am sure that this is not unusual for an elderly retired person.

TJH

[XFool]

Given that the term "remainer" has passed into the English lexicon and is used to describe people who wanted to remain in the EU, I'm perfectly happy to use it as such (as are most people).

That makes Liz Truss is a Remainer.

So it IS all down to Remainers?

Odey just doesn't seem to have explained it very clearly...