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Beat S and P with Doris

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Paul147
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Beat S and P with Doris

#646361

Postby Paul147 » February 12th, 2024, 10:10 am

hi all ,

just my second post ,hopefully it may be of interest to someone, I have read lots of posts on here and they have been very helpful for me in making a strategy of my own.
what I have found is one size doesn't fit all and the discussions of high yield for income against low yield growth shares are one example where the time you have left to play in the game dictates your strategy. I'll look at putting up my own strategy on a separate post and how I have looked at the problems we face as investors.
that said below I have listed shares selected using fundamental settings for the sandp500.
Back tested over 20 years it has beat the s and p500 returns for 19, one loss however was 38% for the year, these selections then corrected and again beat s and p over the next few years.
disclaimer:- I hold no positions in the stocks below as I am fully invested at present, the other reason is I do not fully trust back testing and am looking at the live results from the selections I am posting on here.
the intention is to post next January to update the results post a new set and monitor those results as well, investing a small amount that year or waiting until the next to commit more funds.
the picks are very volatile every single year and I have tested every stop loss I can using moving averages , standard stops etc - every one loses money, the only way to play these it seems is the Doris method of buy hold and forget.
I'm hoping the lists may be useful going forward for someone as I have taken quite a bit from the fool without giving back as yet.
results wise back tested have been 5% - 35% a year more at times than the sandp 500 have delivered
please do not risk any money however until we see a couple of years of live trades.

only buy and hold -swings right down at times to -70% on some(fasten your seatbelts)

ticker Price All selections from 1/2/2024
AM 12.39
ANDE 57.64
CAMT 67.46
CBNK 24.86
E 34.12
EFR 12.80
GIII 33.54
HDSN 13.90
JBL 128.90
KLAC 560.39
MCK 473.42
MHO 134.00
NX 31.20
PHM 101.55
PNNT 6.86
POWL 90.34
ROP 533.72
SCD 13.77
SFL 11.37
SLG 45.68

EthicsGradient
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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646367

Postby EthicsGradient » February 12th, 2024, 10:34 am

Would a bit of background be useful? As far as I can tell, "Doris" was a mythical Motley Fool investor for a portfolio that had been basically unchanged for many decades. You say you've chosen these shares using "fundamental settings", but that could mean anything. Can you explain what it means?

Paul147
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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646370

Postby Paul147 » February 12th, 2024, 10:45 am

Hi ,and yes that is what I read regards Doris and just used it as a headline tbh
As regards selection criteria , I really don’t want to go into any detail just yet , let’s just see how the results go over the next couple of years. I have no problem posting each year if they are as successful as the backtests.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646383

Postby monabri » February 12th, 2024, 11:24 am

Oh come on, this is known as a PT! ( second word being "tease"). ;)

If you are going to show any validity in the method then the controls need to be specified " upfront".

As for the tickers...I'm not familiar with a single one..I presume they are US companies?

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646386

Postby SalvorHardin » February 12th, 2024, 11:33 am

monabri wrote:Oh come on, this is known as a PT! ( second word being "tease"). ;)

If you are going to show any validity in the method then the controls need to be specified " upfront".

As for the tickers...I'm not familiar with a single one..I presume they are US companies?

I recognise one ticker. SLG is SL Green, biggest office landlord in Manhattan and my fifth largest holding. Has been beaten up because of work from home fears and that the New York authorities have become very soft on crime. Currently $44.51, I bought mine at roughly $20.50 last year, peaked at $127 in 2015 and were $91 before lockdown.

I mostly ignore posts which show just tickers instead of company names

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646401

Postby SebsCat » February 12th, 2024, 12:34 pm

monabri wrote:Oh come on, this is known as a PT! ( second word being "tease"). ;)

If you are going to show any validity in the method then the controls need to be specified " upfront".

As for the tickers...I'm not familiar with a single one..I presume they are US companies?

Can't be bothered going through the list, but the first couple look to be Antero Midstream and The Andersons Inc. Neither are in the S&P 500 so I think the OP at least needs to explain how they are "selected using fundamental settings for the sandp500". I took that as the selections being from the S&P 500 but it must be something else.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646582

Postby Paul147 » February 13th, 2024, 10:03 am

Yes sorry ,

I didn't explain myself very well ,all the selections are software generated, I haven't even looked at any of the companies in any depth myself ,the tickers themselves were put up just for point of reference for next January not for anyone to start looking at each company at this time or to invest in.

next year ill put the company names in as well for any one that wants to dig deeper, along with any other relevant info.

I typed too quickly , the sandp 500 was the benchmark , the stocks are from the Russell 3000 index

that's it from me until jan 2025 ;)

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646653

Postby kempiejon » February 13th, 2024, 12:52 pm

Paul147 wrote:that's it from me until jan 2025


Well Paul welcome to the community, see you in 10 months.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646666

Postby Arborbridge » February 13th, 2024, 1:22 pm

Paul147 wrote:Hi ,and yes that is what I read regards Doris and just used it as a headline tbh
As regards selection criteria , I really don’t want to go into any detail just yet , let’s just see how the results go over the next couple of years. I have no problem posting each year if they are as successful as the backtests.


How absurd. Sorry but this is noway to proceed, and it would serve you right if your post fails to find any following or garner a credible reputation.

We need to know what the criteria are at the outset, not someway down the line. Otherwise, the experiment does not even warrant a mention, in my view.

Arb.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646676

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2024, 1:42 pm

A brief overview of the companies. Some of them I couldn't readily find (marked with ??)


AM: ??

ANDE - Andersons (Nasdaq) -
The Andersons, Inc. operates in trade, renewables, and plant nutrient sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Trade, Renewables, and Plant Nutrient. The company’s Trade segment operates grain elevators; stores commodities; and provides grain marketing, risk management, and origination services, as well as sells commodities, such as corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, and corn oil.


CAMT Camtek Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells inspection and metrology equipment for the advanced interconnect packaging, memory, complementary metal oxide semiconductor image sensors, micro-electro mechanical systems, radio frequency, and other segments of the semiconductor industry.


CBNK Capital Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Capital Bank, N.A. that provides various banking products and services to businesses, not-for-profit associations, and entrepreneurs in the United States. It operates through Commercial Banking, Capital Bank Home Loans, and OpenSky segments. The company offers a range of deposit products and services, including checking and savings, time, interest bearing and noninterest-bearing demand, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit; and credit cards.

E : ??

EFR : Energy Fuels Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction, recovery, exploration, processing, permitting, evaluation, and sale of uranium, vanadium, and rare earth elements.

GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets women’s and men’s apparel in the United States and internationally.

HDSN Hudson Technologies, Inc. a refrigerant services company, provides solutions to recurring problems within the refrigeration industry in the United States.

JBL Jabil Inc. provides manufacturing services and solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Electronics Manufacturing Services and Diversified Manufacturing Services. The company offers electronics design, production, and product management services; electronic circuit design services, such as application-specific integrated circuit design, firmware development, and rapid prototyping services; and designs plastic and metal enclosures that include the electro-mechanics, such as the printed circuit board assemblies (PCBA).

KLAC : ??

MCK McKesson Corporation provides healthcare services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Pharmaceutical, Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS), Medical-Surgical Solutions, and International.


MHO M/I Homes, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a builder of single-family homes in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Tennessee.


NX : ??

PHM PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States.

PNNT PennantPark Investment Corporation, a business development company is a private equity fund specializes in direct and mezzanine investments in middle market companies. It invests in the form of mezzanine debt, senior secured loans, and equity investments. The fund typically invests in buildings and real estate, hotels, gaming and leisure, technology, telecommunications, transportation, information technology services, electronics, healthcare & pharmaceuticals, education and childcare, financial services, printing and publishing, consumer products, business services, energy & Related Services and utilities, distribution, oil and gas, media, environmental services, aerospace and defense, building materials, capital equipment, chemicals, plastics, & rubber, food & beverage, wholesale, manufacturing and basic industries and retail.

POWL Powell Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and services custom-engineered equipment and systems.


ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. designs and develops software, and technology enabled products and solutions. The company offers management, campus solutions, diagnostic and laboratory information management, enterprise management, information solutions, transportation management, financial and compliance management, and cloud-based financial analytics and performance management software; cloud-based software to the property and casualty insurance industry; and software, services, and technologies for foodservice operations. It also provides cloud-based data, collaboration, and estimating automation software; electronic marketplace; visual effects and 3D content software; wireless sensor network and solutions; cloud-based software for the life insurance and financial services industries; supply chain software; health care service and software; RFID card readers; data analytics and information; and pharmacy software solutions.

SCD LMP Capital and Income Fund Inc. is a closed ended balanced mutual fund launched and managed by Legg Mason Partners Fund Advisor, LLC. It is co-managed by Clearbridge Investments, LLC, Western Asset Management Company Limited, and Western Asset Management Company. The fund invests in public equity and fixed income markets across the globe.

SFL SFL Corporation Ltd., a maritime and offshore asset owning and chartering company, engages in the ownership, operation, and chartering out of vessels and offshore related assets on medium and long-term charters. The company operates in various sectors of the maritime, and shipping and offshore industries, including oil transportation, dry bulk shipments, chemical transportation, oil products transportation, container transportation, car transportation, and drilling rigs. As of December 31, 2022, the company owned 10 crude oil tankers, 15 dry bulk carriers, 32 container vessels, three car carriers, one jack-up drilling rig, one ultra-deepwater drilling unit, two chemical tankers, and six oil product tankers.

SLG SL Green Realty Corp., Manhattan's largest office landlord, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust, or REIT, that is focused primarily on acquiring, managing and maximizing value of Manhattan commercial properties. As of September 30, 2023, SL Green held interests in 59 buildings totaling 32.5 million square feet. This included ownership interests in 28.8 million square feet of Manhattan buildings and 2.8 million square feet securing debt and preferred equity investments.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646685

Postby Lootman » February 13th, 2024, 2:08 pm

monabri wrote:A brief overview of the companies. Some of them I couldn't readily find (marked with ??)

AM: ??

Antero Midstream Corp

E : ??

Eni SpA

KLAC : ??

KLA Corp

NX : ??

Quanex Building Products Corp

Some obscure stuff here. The only ones I had hard of are Pulte, SL Green and McKesson.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#646691

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2024, 2:33 pm

So, it's back to a question of " why these shares?" - ie the screening that has lead to this list.

A very cursory look at some of the margins reported would lead me to discount quite a few of the companies out of hand ( failed at 1st hurdle)....although there were a few companies that might be of interest, meriting further research. I don't have a scooby as to how the list was derived...hopefully the OP will come back to outline their thoughts.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647495

Postby elephanthunt11 » February 17th, 2024, 8:00 am

What’s the point of this post?

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647501

Postby Arborbridge » February 17th, 2024, 8:47 am

elephanthunt11 wrote:What’s the point of this post?


Can we trust someone who can't punctuate or use capital letters properly?


Arb.

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647503

Postby bungeejumper » February 17th, 2024, 9:11 am

Just been googling. There are really rather a lot of Paul147s out there on various discussion boards, including many where no posts have ever been made. Capitalisation/punctuation issues seem to be a regular feature. Are you real, Paul? ;)

BJ

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647550

Postby XFool » February 17th, 2024, 12:51 pm

bungeejumper wrote:Just been googling. There are really rather a lot of Paul147s out there on various discussion boards, including many where no posts have ever been made. Capitalisation/punctuation issues seem to be a regular feature. Are you real, Paul? ;)

Well, somebody has voted the OP up. Possibly robertbanking? ;)

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647634

Postby AJC5001 » February 17th, 2024, 9:24 pm

XFool wrote:Well, somebody has voted the OP up. Possibly robertbanking? ;)


Actually.it was ReformedCharacter :lol:

Adrian

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Re: Beat S and P with Doris

#647645

Postby elephanthunt11 » February 18th, 2024, 12:27 am

Arborbridge wrote:Can we trust someone who can't punctuate or use capital letters properly?

Absolutely not.


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