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Gilts now for longer term?

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Alaric
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Re: Gilts now for longer term?

#537030

Postby Alaric » October 13th, 2022, 4:57 pm

1nvest wrote: Deposit as much as you like into Gilts and they're pretty much guaranteed protected as the state can always print money/increase taxes to cover repayment of borrowed amounts (rather than being seen as having defaulted on its obligations). Fixed/guaranteed return, where that is known at the very start (purchase date/time).



That's correct of course, but where you have no defence is that Goverment policies may deliberately depreciate or devalue the currency.

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Re: Gilts now for longer term?

#537035

Postby 1nvest » October 13th, 2022, 5:11 pm

Alaric wrote:
1nvest wrote: Deposit as much as you like into Gilts and they're pretty much guaranteed protected as the state can always print money/increase taxes to cover repayment of borrowed amounts (rather than being seen as having defaulted on its obligations). Fixed/guaranteed return, where that is known at the very start (purchase date/time).

That's correct of course, but where you have no defence is that Government policies may deliberately depreciate or devalue the currency.

But that's not a government policy, that's a inevitability, fact. The government however have the option/capacity to direct the gradient. Either gradual decline over many years, or short sharp pain with the capacity for good/rapid economic growth thereafter. Prolonged austerity, or sharp hit and a feel-good rebound, and the latter is perhaps more preferable, especially as we're most of the way already there (recent Long Dated Gilt yields of 5% are pretty much middle road historic average, inflation is and is projected to continue to decline back towards 2% target rate ...etc.). If in 5 years time the UK is back at historic 'normal' levels, and has attracted a increase from 1% to 3% of those that pay 33% of the tax take, then that's fine with me, especially in contrast to a Labour alternative policy of having the 1% self-exile to instead leave the rest having to pay 50% more in taxes.

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Re: Gilts now for longer term?

#537040

Postby 1nvest » October 13th, 2022, 5:25 pm

Alaric wrote:
1nvest wrote: Deposit as much as you like into Gilts and they're pretty much guaranteed protected as the state can always print money/increase taxes to cover repayment of borrowed amounts (rather than being seen as having defaulted on its obligations). Fixed/guaranteed return, where that is known at the very start (purchase date/time).

That's correct of course, but where you have no defence is that Government policies may deliberately depreciate or devalue the currency.

Gold used to be money, but the US replaced that policy/practice with the US$, that it can print more of and spend, exporting inflation onto others. So longer term the natural tendency is for the US$ to decline relative to gold, that is finite. In exporting inflation so the GB Pound has to relatively decline relative to the US$ (and gold).

The UK ended fixed gold/money convertibility in the early 1930's - too much money was being converted to gold and the gold being removed out of the country for that to be sustained. In 1930 you could buy near 5 US$ for each Pound. Nowadays its increasingly closer to Pound/Dollar parity.

Russia/others don't like that US privilege - where they can just print dollars and spend such as on a massive military to defend its competitive advantage position, but the US is the heart of capitalism so rejection of the US$ is also a turn away from capitalism - where corruption and policies are not what most in the West would like. Assuming we persist with capitalism then in another 50 years the US$ will likely buy more than £1 (be below Pound Dollar parity).

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Re: Gilts now for longer term?

#547212

Postby ukmtk » November 17th, 2022, 5:15 am

I too manage my own SIPP.
It hasn't been a spectacular success.

Since the pension reforms I opted for income as I'm approaching retirement.
One thing I do now is only buy funds and not individual shares.
I also stick to funds with low costs.

This year my yield will be 6.4%.
This sounds good but is flattered by valuation being down 18% overall! :(

This is what my portfolio looks like (% round to nearest whole number):

  • API 7%
  • HDIV 9%
  • HFEL 10%
  • HMCH 5%
  • IUKD 33%
  • RGL 9%
  • VUKE 12%
  • VHYL 9%
  • VFEM 6%

I was advised that I was too UK centric a few years ago.
I estimate that 42% of my holdings are non-UK.
I overdid IUKD. My best performers have been VHYL & VFEM.
I plan to top up VHYL & buy VUSA.

I only pay £200 for my portfolio to be held by my platform.
That's why I prefer ETFs & OEICs.


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