UncleEbenezer wrote:As for Hancock, he'll have his success as soon as he can point to reversion to the mean[1] in Leicester.
[1] Reversion to the mean is a technical concept in statistics. Worth understanding - if you didn't already.
Ah yes, but surely it is a mystical law that says all data sets must to revert to the mean because if you look further back in your data set, deviations always reverted to the mean, so alway will in the future. Nothing to do with the fact you just used that same data set to plot that mean, as any fule kno.
Am I on the right track? ISTR there being massive squabbles on the TMF property board over this back in the mists of time, when some argued property prices have to fall because 'reversion to the mean' always happens if you wait long enough. Jeez....