Julian wrote:In fairness for some of its criteria such as variants of concern it must be tricky or impossible to define numerical criteria to be met. Would one create some sort of threat score for each variant based on a weighted total of growth, prevalence, antibody neutralisation ratios etc? Almost certainly not, I throw out that example to illustrate how impractical it probably is to assign objective numerical thresholds for that aspect of the data rather than as a serious suggestion. For other criteria such as hospital admissions however I can see how numerical criteria can be defined, they might still be complicated maybe involving first or even second order derivatives, but since one is dealing with hard data it should be possible. If there aren't specific go/no-go numerical tests for some of the more quantifiable data sets then that makes me very suspicious of the "data not dates" mantra and if such numerical thresholds are defined then are they published anywhere?
If any threshold guidance is available even if for only some of the data categories then I really wish that the mainstream media could find a way to present it so that we could see these daily numbers in the context of the government targets for the various unlock stages because that's what matters most to me right now, that and not blowing it all in a rush of impatience and carelessness over this coming summer.
- Julian
I share your concern.
I think the government have gone to considerable effort to draft tests which are matters of opinion rather than fact, on actually reading them, despite the "data not dates" mantra. So I very much doubt you'll ever find any thresholds defined.
"This assessment will be based on four tests:
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prim ... strictions
(Edit to add my third sentence.)