odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting that most of the comments are negative. This to me feels like a contrarian buy signal, but does innovation trump the Fed?
The more I study the areas that Cathy Wood is focused on the more the potential looks to be more powerful than the Fed.
In terms of genetics this kind of medicine is extraordinarily powerful:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63859184
In terms of ai anyone who has played with chatGPT is either focused on the things it gets wrong or are amazed at what it can do now & expect it will get a whole lot better. Having ai write software for me or create graphics I need is extraordinarily useful for me.
The electric car phenomenon is something I have followed for a long time. Tesla is now in value territory, has the best balance sheet of any auto with $20b in cash & exciting products and everyone hates it.
In terms of blockchain, it seems to have stabilised & apart from the spectacular fraud has in general behaved as it should despite the huge sell off.
Meanwhile the Fed do not seem to have crested in interest rates raising & there are mixed signals regarding various observable like inflation, employment etc.
Based on all of this I believe innovation is closer to a bottom than many believe & share prices suggest. At some point innovation becomes a huge buy, but we will only know that point when it has passed.
Regards,
And the counterargument to this contrarian signal argument is that too many people still believe that the leaders from the last cycle will lead us back out of the current slump - historically that doesn't happen.. leadership passes to a different sector and the market takes on a new shape over the next cycle.